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Tadeusz Niedzwiedz, niedzwie_at_wnoz.us.edu.pl Ewa
Lupikasza elupikas_at_wnoz.us.edu.pl
University of Silesia, Faculty of Earth
Sciences Department of Climatology
Extreme Climatic and atmospheric changes -
prediction for the Baltic Sea region future
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Content
What do climate change and climatic extremes
mean?
Observed climate change?
Reasons of climate change in Europe and the
Baltic Sea region?
Projection of future Climate Change Europe and
The Baltic Sea area?
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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What does climate extreme mean?
Extremes generally refer to rare events within
the statistical reference distribution of
particular weather elements at a particular place
(Houghton et al., 2001) and thus to the tails of
the probability density function (PDF)
Another definition of extremes is used in impact
analysis. Here, extremes usually refer to the
hazardous weather conditions that result in
strong adverse effects on ecosystems or sectors
of society.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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What does climate change mean?
A statistically significant variation in either
the mean state of the climate or in its
variability, persisting for an extended period of
time, typically decades or longer (Houghton et
al., 2001).
Schematic showing the effect on extreme
temperatures when (a) the mean temperature
increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c)
when both the mean and variance increase for a
normal distribution of temperature.
Furthermore, climate change is characterized also
by changes in extremes.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Global
According to the instrumental record, the global
mean temperature increase over the period
18612000 was 0.61C, with 90 confidence
interval 0.450.77C (Houghton et al., 2001).
Smoothed annual anomalies of combined
land-surface air and sea surface temperatures
(C), 1861 to 2000, relative to 1961 to 1990,
Globe.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Global
For the period since 1976, the rate of change is
roughly 3 times that for
the past 100 years as a whole
1901-2000
Annual surface temperature trends
1976-2000
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Global
WINTER (DJF)
SPRING (MAM)
SUMMER (JJA)
AUTUMN (SON)
Seasonal surface temperature trends for the
period 1976 to 2000 (C/decade),
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Is the recent warming unusual?
Millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature
reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red)
from AD 1000 to 1999, adapted from Mann et al.
(1999). Smoother version of NH series (black),
linear trend from AD 1000 to 1850 (purple-dashed)
and two standard error limits (grey shaded) are
shown.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Global
Overall, global land precipitation has increased
by about 2 since the beginning of the 20th
century (Jones and Hulme, 1996 Hulme et al.,
1998)
The increase is statistically significant but has
been neither spatially nor temporally uniform
(Karl and Knight, 1998 Doherty et al., 1999).
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Global
Overall, global land precipitation has increased
by about 2 since the beginning of the 20th
century (Jones and Hulme, 1996 Hulme et al.,
1998)
1976-1999
Annual precipitation trends
1900-1999
The increase is statistically significant but has
been neither spatially nor temporally uniform
(Karl and Knight, 1998 Doherty et al., 1999).
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Europe
Mean temperature - winter
Cold-spell days, winter
The pronounced warming between 1976 and 1999 is
primarily associated with an increase in warm
extremes rather than with a decrease in cold
extremes.1999).
1976-99
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
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Observed climate change - Europe
Precipitation - winter
No. of wet days, winter
1976-99
Mean prec. amount per wet days, winter
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS CONFERENCE, Borki
Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007