Heavy metal modelling: Use of different emission inventories

1
Heavy metal modellingUse of different emission
inventories

• Oleg Travnikov
• EMEP/MSC-E

2
Model results vs. observations
Underestimation of observed concentrations by
65-75
3
Workshop on the review of EMEP MSC-E models on
HMs and POPs
(ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4)

• Workshop concluded
• Most transport models (including MSC-E Heavy
  Metal model) underestimate air and precipitation
  concentration when using official emission data

• Reasons of model/measurement discrepancies may
  particularly include
• Incompleteness and uncertainty of available
  emission inventories of heavy metals
• Unaccounted secondary emission of heavy metals
  (wind re-suspension)

4
Uncertainty of emission inventories
5
Uncertainty of emission inventories
75 underestimation
35 underestimation
6
Wind re-suspension of HM

• Dust suspension
• Saltation
• Marticorena Bergametti, 1995 Gomes et al.,
  2003
• Sandblasting
• Alfaro Gomes, 2001

7
Wind re-suspension of HM
Pb concentration in European soils

• Default HM concentrations in soil
• (Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia)

FOREGS (www.gtk.fi/publ/foregsatlas/)
8
Wind re-suspension of HM
Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension of Pb
9
Model results vs. observations (Pb)
Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation
(2000)
Official
Officialre-suspen.
ESPREMEre-suspen.
Mod 0.35 Obs Corr 0.7
Mod 0.62 Obs Corr 0.66
Mod 0.79 Obs Corr 0.62
20 underestimation
40 underestimation
65 underestimation
10
Model results vs. observations (Cd)
Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation
(2000)
Official
Officialre-suspen.
ESPREMEre-suspen.
Mod 0.26 Obs Corr 0.76
Mod 0.33 Obs Corr 0.71
Mod 0.71 Obs Corr 0.53
30 underestimation
65 underestimation
75 underestimation
11
Conclusions

• Use of currently available emissions data leads
  to underestimation of ambient heavy metal
  concentrations by atmospheric transport models
• Modelling results based on ESPREME estimates
  commonly demonstrate better agreement with
  measurements than those based on official
  emissions data
• Wind re-suspension of some heavy metals can
  significantly contribute to their ambient
  concentration and depositions in Europe

12
Emission inventories vs. ambient measurements

• Total emissions vs. measured wet depositions of
  Cd in Europe

Emissions vs. concentration in precip. of Pb in
the United Kingdom
Cd
Emission inventories does not reflect long-term
changes and ambient levels of HMs in Europe
13
Anthropogenic emissions vs.re-suspension
Pb
Pb emissions in European countries
Pb mean concentration in soil
14
Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension
Cd
Cd emissions in European countries
Cd mean concentration in soil
15
Wind re-suspension of HM
Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension of Cd
Re-suspension
Anthropogenic emissions