Electoral Geography: Gerrymandering, Voter Turnout, Historical Results

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Electoral GeographyGerrymandering,Voter
Turnout, Historical Results

• APHG

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Printed in 1812, this political cartoon
illustrates the electoral districts drawn by the
Massachusetts legislature to favor the incumbent
Democratic-Republican party candidates of
Governor Elbridge Gerry over the Federalists. The
cartoon depicts the bizarre shape of one district
as a salamander, from which the term gerrymander
is derived.
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There are two principal strategies behind
gerrymandering maximizing the effective votes of
supporters, and minimizing the effective votes of
opponents. One form of gerrymandering, packing,
is to place as many voters of one type into a
single district to reduce their influence in
other districts. A second form, cracking,
involves spreading out voters of a particular
type among many districts in order to reduce
their representation by denying them a
sufficiently large voting block in any particular
district. The methods are typically combined,
creating a few "forfeit" seats for packed voters
of one type in order to secure even greater
representation for voters of another type.
Redrawing the balanced electoral districts in
this example creates a guaranteed 3-to-1
advantage in representation for the blue voters
as 14 red voters are packed into the yellow
district and the remaining 18 are cracked across
the 3 blue districts.
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Gerrymandering is effective because of the wasted
vote effect - by packing opposition voters into
districts they will already win (increasing
excess votes for winners) and by cracking the
remainder among districts where they are moved
into the minority (increasing votes for eventual
losers), the number of wasted votes among the
opposition can be maximized. Similarly, with
supporters now holding narrow margins in the
unpacked districts, the number of wasted votes
among supporters is minimized.
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Reduction in electoral competition and voter
turnout
The most immediate and obvious effect of
gerrymandering is for elections to become less
competitive in all districts, particularly packed
ones. As electoral margins of victory become
significantly greater and politicians have safe
seats, the incentive for meaningful campaigning
is reduced. Similarly, voter turnout is likely to
be adversely affected as the chance of
influencing electoral results by voting becomes
greatly reduced and, correspondingly, political
campaigns are less likely to expend resources
encouraging turnout.
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Less Descriptive Representation

• Gerrymandering also has significant effects on
  the representation received by voters in
  gerrymandered districts. Because gerrymandering
  is designed to increase the number of wasted
  votes among the electorate, the relative
  representation of particular groups can be
  drastically altered from their actual share of
  the voting population. This effect can
  significantly prevent a gerrymandered system from
  achieving proportional and descriptive
  representation, as the winners of elections are
  increasingly determined by who is drawing the
  districts rather than the preferences of the
  voters.

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Incumbent gerrymandering
Carved out with the aid of a computer, this
congressional district was the product of
California's incumbent gerrymandering. This is
the district of Democrat Grace Flores Napolitano,
who ran unopposed in 2004, obtaining 100 percent
of the vote.
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Proposed reforms targeting gerrymandering

• Due to the myriad of issues associated with
  gerrymandering and the subsequent impact it has
  on competitive elections and democratic
  accountability, various electoral reforms aimed
  at making gerrymandering either more difficult or
  less effective have been proposed. These reforms
  can be controversial, however, and frequently
  meet particularly strong opposition from groups
  that are benefiting from gerrymandering who stand
  to lose considerable influence in a more
  representative government.

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Using a neutral or cross-party body to create
districts

• The most commonly advocated electoral reform
  proposal targeted at gerrymandering is to change
  the redistricting process. Under these proposals,
  an independent, and presumably objective,
  commission is created and charged with
  redistricting rather than the legislature doing
  the redistricting. To help ensure neutrality,
  members of the board can come from relatively
  apolitical sources such as retired state judges
  or longstanding members of the bureaucracy,
  possibly requiring adequate representation from
  competing political parties. Additionally,
  members of the board can be denied access to
  information that might aid in gerrymandering,
  such as the demographic makeup or voting patterns
  of the population. As a further constraint,
  consensus requirements can be imposed to ensure
  that the resulting district map reflects a wider
  perception of fairness, such as a requirement for
  a supermajority approval of the commission for
  any district proposal.

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Changing the voting system

• Because gerrymandering relies on the wasted vote
  effect to be effective, the use of a different
  voting system with fewer wasted votes can help
  reduce gerrymandering. The simplest system to
  change to is straight proportional
  representation, in which Gerrymandering is
  impossible as every vote counts no matter where
  it originated from.

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What exactly is proportional representation?

• It is a voting system that assures that the
  overall results are proportional to the
  distribution of votes. If a party receives 30 of
  the vote it will get approximately 30
  representation. In that type of system your vote
  is always important. The difference between 20
  and 30 doesnt mean anything in a majority
  winner-take-all election, but it means the
  difference between 20 and 30 representation in
  a system that uses proportional representation.

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Where is proportional representation currently in
use?

• ALGERIA, ANGOLA, ARGENTINA, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM,
  BENIN, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, BRAZIL, BULGARIA,
  BURKINA FASO, BURUNDI, CAMBODIA, CAPE VERDE,
  CHILE, COLOMBIA, COSTA RICA, CYPRUS, CZECH
  REPUBLIC, DENMARK, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, EL
  SALVADOR, EQUATORIAL GUINEA, ERITREA, ESTONIA,
  FINLAND, GREECE, GUINEA-BISSAU, GUYANA, ICELAND,
  INDONESIA, ISRAEL, LATVIA, LIBERIA,
  LIECHTENSTEIN, LUXEMBOURG, MOLDOVA, REPUBLIC OF
  MOZAMBIQUE, NAMIBIA, NETHERLANDS, NETHERLANDS
  ANTILLES, NEW CALEDONIA, NICARAGUA, NORWAY,
  PARAGUAY, PERU, POLAND, PORTUGAL, ROMANIA, SAN
  MARINO, SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE, SLOVAKIA,
  SLOVENIA, SOUTH AFRICA, SPAIN, SRI LANKA,
  SURINAME, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, SERBIA, TURKEY,
  URUGUAY, WALLIS AND FUTUNA

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Voter Turnout

• After increasing for many decades, there has been
  a trend of decreasing voter turnout in most
  established democracies since the 1960s. This
  issue has been much studied, but scholars are
  divided on what has caused it, with a wide array
  of economic, demographic, cultural,
  technological, and institutional factors proposed
  as the cause of this decline.

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Voters lining up outside a Baghdad polling
station during the 2005 Iraqi election. Voter
turnout was surprisingly high despite widespread
concerns of violent attacks on polling places.
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Voter Turnout

• There can also be regional differences in voter
  turnout. One issue that arises in
  continent-spanning nations, such as Canada, the
  United States and Russia, is that of time zones.
  For example, for voters in the western part of
  the United States, national elections have often
  been essentially decided well before polls close
  in their region. This potentially depresses
  turnout on the Pacific coast. Canada has
  partially resolved this problem by banning the
  broadcasting of election results in any region
  where the polls have not yet closed.

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Voter Turnout Cultural Factors

• Wealth and literacy have some effect on turnout,
  but are not reliable measures. Countries such as
  Angola and Ethiopia have long had high turnouts,
  but so have the wealthy states of Europe. The
  United Nations Human Development Index shows some
  correlation between higher standards of living
  and higher turnout. The age of a democracy is
  also an important factor. Elections require
  considerable involvement by the population, and
  it takes some time to develop the cultural habit
  of voting, and the associated understanding of
  and confidence in the electoral process. This
  factor may explain the lower turnouts in the
  newer democracies of Eastern Europe and Latin
  America. Much of the impetus to vote comes from a
  sense of civic duty, which takes time and certain
  social conditions to develop. G. Bingham Powell
  lists four major attitudes that have a strongly
  positive effect on voter turnout, attitudes that
  can take decades to develop
• trust in government
• degree of partisanship among the population
• interest in politics
• belief in the efficacy of voting

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Voter Turnout

• Demographics also have an effect. Older people
  tend to vote more than youths, so societies where
  the average age is somewhat higher, such as
  Europe, have higher turnouts than somewhat
  younger countries such as Canada and the United
  States. Populations that are more mobile and
  those that have lower marriage rates tend to have
  lower turnouts. In countries that are highly
  multicultural and multilingual, it can be
  difficult for national election campaigns to
  engage all sectors of the population.

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Compulsory Voting - Australia

• Australians have been required to vote in federal
  elections since 1924. Concerned that voter
  turnout had dipped below 60 percent, parliament
  enacted mandatory voting after only 90 minutes of
  debate, and it's gone largely unchallenged ever
  since. Polls regularly show 70 percent to 80
  percent of Australians support mandatory voting.
  Lisa Hill, a research fellow at the University of
  Adelaide, explains it this way "We're quite
  happy with some forms of coercion that others may
  not be happy with."

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Compulsory Voting
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Compulsory Voting

• Actually, the voting part of "mandatory voting"
  is a misnomer. All Australian citizens over the
  age of 18 must register and show up at a polling
  station, but they need not actually vote. They
  can deface their ballot or write in Skippy the
  Bush Kangaroo (Australia's version of Lassie)or
  do nothing at all.
• What happens if you don't show up on Election
  Day? You'll receive a fairly polite form letter.
  At this point, you can settle the matter by
  paying a 15 fine or offering any number of
  excuses, including illness (no note from your
  doctor required), travel, religious objections,
  or just plain forgetfulness. For most people, the
  matter ends here. In most elections, about a
  half-million registered voters don't come to the
  polls. Ninety-five percent of them offer a valid
  excuse, and the matter ends there. Five percent
  pay a fine.

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Compulsory Voting

• A few hundred cases each election actually end up
  in court. Those who refuse to pay the fine or
  offer a plausible excuse face escalating threats,
  similar to the ones you receive from American
  Express when your balance is past due. The fine
  jumps to 37 and, in extreme cases, a brief
  prison sentence is imposed. But the Australian
  government clearly doesn't want to imprison a lot
  of its citizens for not voting. I've been able to
  find only a few cases of Aussies going to jail
  over this in the past few decadesall
  conscientious objectors courting arrest. A
  significant percentage of Australiansabout 15
  percent of themdon't bother to register at all.
  The government doesn't go after these people,
  reserving fines and prosecutions only for those
  who register and don't show up on Election Day.
  (Australia's 80-plus percent registration rate is
  very high compared to other democracies.)

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Australia Arguments used in favor of compulsory
voting

• Voting is a civic duty comparable to other duties
  citizens perform (e.g. taxation, compulsory
  education, or jury duty).
• Parliament reflects more accurately the "will of
  the electorate."
• Governments must consider the total electorate in
  policy formulation and management.
• Candidates can concentrate their campaigning
  energies on issues rather than encouraging voters
  to attend the poll.
• The voter isnt actually compelled to vote for
  anyone because voting is by secret ballot.

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Australia Arguments used against compulsory
voting

• It is undemocratic to force people to vote - an
  infringement of liberty.
• The "ignorant" and those with little interest in
  politics are forced to the polls.
• It may increase the number of "donkey votes" (bad
  votes that don't get counted).
• It may increase the number of informal votes
  (ballot papers which are not marked according to
  the rules for voting).
• It increases the number of safe, single-member
  electorates - political parties then concentrate
  on the more marginal electorates.
• Resources must be allocated to determine whether
  those who failed to vote have "valid and
  sufficient" reasons.

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Examples of Bushmanders!
Bullwinkle (New York's 12th Hispanic majority)

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Pair of Ear Muffs (Illinois's 4th Hispanic
majority)
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Mark of Zorro (Louisiana's 4th black majority)
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Satire
Man peers under locked ballot box Date
2005-03-31 Artist Dale Cummings
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Post-election America is red, white, black and
blue Date 2004-11-03 Artist JD Crowe
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Bush vs. Gore 2000
In this map and the following series of maps, the
color Blue represents the Republicans and the
color Red the Democrats.
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Bush vs. Gore 2000
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
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Florida 2000
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
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Florida 2000

• Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential
  Candidate Party Popular Vote Electoral Vote
• George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican
  2,912,790 48.85 25
• Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic
  2,912,253 48.84 0
• Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 97,488 1.63 0
• Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 17,484
  0.29 0
• Harry Browne Art Olivier Libertarian 16,415
  0.28 0
• Other () - - 6,680 0.11 0

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Fairfield County Gore 52.3 193,769 Bush 43.1
159,659 Nader 3.4 12,664 Other 1.1 4,197
Hartford County Gore 60.2 221,167 Bush
34.7 127,468 Nader 3.9 14,214 Other 1.3
4,707 Litchfield County Gore 47.9 41,806
Bush 44.9 39,172 Nader 6.2 5,413 Other
1.1 947
Connecticut Counties Sample 2000
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
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Bush vs. Kerry 2004
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Bush vs. Kerry 2004
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
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(No Transcript)
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U.S. Senate 2006
Dem Net 5 Rep Net -6 Ind Net 1
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?ye
ar2006off3f0
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Nixon vs. Kennedy 1960
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
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1960 Electoral Summary
Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential
Candidate Political Party Popular Vote Electoral
Vote John Kennedy Lyndon Johnson Democratic
34,220,984 49.72 303 56.42 Richard Nixon
Henry Lodge Republican 34,108,157 49.55 219
40.78 Unpledged Electors - Democratic 286,359
0.42 15 2.79 Other () - - 216,982 0.32 0
0.00
http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html