United Nations Environment Programme/ Regional Office for Europe

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COUNTRY PROJECT Presentations Integrated
Assessment of Trade-Related Policies in the
Agriculture Sector and Biological
Diversity Papua New Guinea Project Geneva, 1-3
July 2008

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OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSESSMENT

• To create the necessary support and capacity in
  PNG for planning and implementing sustainable
  national economic development and poverty
  reduction while strengthening the maintenance of
  biodiversity.
• A critical area is to enhance capacity to assess,
  design and implement agricultural trade-related
  and trade liberalization policies that support
  these national objectives using the example of
  the maintenance of staple food crop biodiversity.
  

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OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSESSMENT

• A number of sequential objectives the project
  aims to achieve are
• Building of national capacity to assess the
  environmental, social, and economic impacts of
  the tariff reduction programme, with emphasis on
  impacts on biodiversity, including sweet potato
  and taro varieties as the case study.
• Building of capacity among trade negotiators and
  policy makers to facilitate sustainable
  agriculture trade.

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OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSESSMENT

• Enhancing understanding of the factors leading to
  loss of agro-biodiversity as a consequence of the
  tariff reduction policy and other trade
  instruments.
• Develop integrated assessment methods and
  biodiversity indicators, especially indicators of
  food crop genetic erosion, for on-going use.
• Building of capacity to develop and implement
  integrated national responses to the results of
  this pilot project.
• Engage the integration of concepts and
  requirements for the sustainable management of
  agro biodiversity into EU-ACP and other trade
  negotiations.
• Enhancing civil society engagement in PNG in
  assessment and policy making, and in sustaining
  agro-biodiversity.

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SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSESSMENT

• The specific objective is to understand the
  impact of trade liberalization on agriculture
  sector, particularly the changes in export crop
  sector and its impact on semi-subsistence or
  staple food sector and its biodiversity.
• This is particularly done through collecting
  relevant indicators of biodiversity such a land
  conversion, land use systems, population
  dynamics, food consumption patterns and changes,
  and attempting to trace these effects to the
  implementation of the tariff reduction. The
  lessons learnt could be applied to the
  environment in general and other biodiversity in
  particular.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT

• The focus of the study is to assess how the
  Tariff Reduction Program (TRP) has affected and
  will affect the export cash crop sector and the
  semi-subsistence crop sector and how this in turn
  will affect biodiversity of taro and sweet
  potato.
• Particularly it will look at how the export crop
  sector and the subsistence crop sector have been
  changing in reference to the introduction of TRP.
  It will be looking at changes in land area for
  the export crops and the subsistence crops.
• The analysis will revolve around whether cash
  crop area expansion is taking place at the cost
  of subsistence crop area or forest land area.
  The type of land on which cash crops are
  expanding would have important implications for
  agriculture and food crop biodiversity, the
  environment and for different types of
  biodiversity. This sets the basis for exploring
  the relationship between changes in agricultural
  production and land use and biodiversity. Export
  figures, value of export crops, and imported food
  substitutes will be used either as mirror
  analysis of impact of tariff on food biodiversity
  or as other dimensions of tariff.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT

• The main sector this project is focusing on is
  the food crop sector since that (1) currently it
  has no direct link to trade, and (2) that food
  crop and export crop compete for land.
• The project is assessing the trickle down effect
  (impact) of trade on food crop sector extending
  from export crop sector. The concept of impact
  assessment of biodiversity is encompassed in the
  food-crop biodiversity. Because of the technical
  difficulties involved in assessing the whole
  biodiversity, assessment of food-crop
  biodiversity is designed to be used as a
  surrogate.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT

• Semi-subsistence Sector
• The food crop semi- subsistence sector consists
  primarily of garden crops ranging from sweet
  potato, banana, taro, yam, a wide range of leafy
  vegetables to a limited stock of introduced grain
  crops, among countless others. Although intensity
  of staple diet may vary from region to region,
  nationally sweet potato is the most dominant
  staple.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT

• Sweet Potato
• Sweet potato is predominantly grown in the
  Highlands region - - where 40 of the population
  lives.
• Coffee is also the predominant cash crop in the
  Highlands
• sweet potato is also fast becoming a commercial
  crop.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT
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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT

• Taro
• Taro is important as food to PNG culture, genetic
  diversity, food security, climate and geographic
  suitability and economy.
• For decades, taro has been the third most
  important indigenous staple in PNG, after sweet
  potato and banana.
• 436,000 tonnes of taro are produced annually on
  an area of 77,000 hectares
• Taro is considered to be a very ancient crop in
  PNG
• PNG now has the worlds largest genetic diversity
  of taro.
• Today, taro is grown in all the lowland parts of
  PNG, and it performs best in these lowland
  locations.

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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT
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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT
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FOCUS OF THE ASSESSMENT
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Region (Eastern Highland and WNB)
West New Britain
Eastern Highlands
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

• Main Driving force (i.e. trade policy or
  measure).
• Export-Driven Economic growth is the main policy
  drive influencing trade policy and domestic trade
  and business structure.
• One notable trade measure is Tariff Reduction
  Program
• How it would affect the agricultural sector and
  the target commodity.
• This measure has and will affect the agriculture
  sector by making it more competitive.
• Reduction of input cost.
• Relieve those agriculture industries that are
  negatively protected.
• Improved income might lead to expansion of crop
  production (area and/or volume).
• Substitutes of staple food imported compete with
  local food production.

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

• The likely changes in incentives in the
  agriculture sector and in land use.
• (1) Conversion of forest land.
• (2) Conversion of subsistence garden land.
• (3) If (2) holds further conversion of forest
  land for subsistence garden results.
• (4) Overuse of land or intensification of land
  leads to degraded quality of land.

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

• Impacts on the environment, biodiversity and the
  ecosystem services associated with biodiversity.
• Limited garden land available limits farmers
  choice of keeping a wide range of food crop
  varieties leading to loss of diversity.
• Forest Conversion leads to (2a) erosion of forest
  food plants (2b) erosion of other biodiversity
  and ecosystems services.
• Market preferred varieties of food crop
  (introduced traditional) lead to loss of other
  varieties .
• Imported substitutes of staple foods (rice
  wheat) compete with staple food and lower demand
  for local food production leading to loss of
  biodiversity.

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
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METHODOLOGY

• The baseline for the analysis of impacts.
• Sweet potato varieties
• Taro varieties
• Land use system
• Other biodiversity
• - The policy scenarios used.

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METHODOLOGY

• Economics Indicators
• Export Share of GDP
• Export Share of Agriculture
• Export Share of coffee and palm oil
• Import volume and value of farm inputs
• Tariff figures type, level
• Employment share of agriculture
• Employment figure of Agriculture
• Employment share of coffee and oil palm
• Share of household income from agriculture
• Share of household income from coffee and palm
  oil
• Measure of producer surplus of farm outputs (oil
  palm and coffee)
• Measure of consumer surplus for imported and
  staple foods
• Benefit cost measure using producers and consumer
  surpluses

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METHODOLOGY

• Social Indicators
• Social services (Road, Health)
• Nutrition and diet figures

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METHODOLOGY

• Environmental (agricultural biodiversity)
• Land area under export sector crop
• Land area under coffee and oil palm industries
• Land area under semi-subsistence crop
• Land area under sweet potato and taro
• Inventory of sweet potato and taro varieties
• Potential growing areas of taro and sweet
  potato using GIS mapping tool.
• Import figures of fertilizers, insecticides,
  and tractors and tractor accessories
• Rate of usage of agricultural chemicals
• Sweet potato biodiversity indicator measure
• Taro biodiversity indicator measure

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METHODOLOGY

• Environmental (agricultural biodiversity)
• wild taro biodiversity indicator measure
• wild sweet potato biodiversity indicator
  measure
• Other biodiversity indicator measure
• value of biodiversity indicators to farmers
• latent and apparent diversity concept
• Spatial diversity concept
• Index of plants, insects, birds and animals of
  value (to farmers) disturbed.
• Amount and level of conservation effort
  practiced

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METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Crop Reproduction Farming System Diversity Concept Level or Scale Conservation goal Data used to construct index
Self Cross Vegetative Modern Traditional Mixed Microecosystem Latent/apparent Spatial/temporal Inter/Intra Household Community Region Nation Rarity Heterogeneity Adaptation Biochemical Molecular Agromorphological descriptors Pedigree Ecological
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METHODOLOGY (cont.)

• Field Survey Sampling Methods
• Stratified random sampling method has been
  adopted, and the strata identified are
• population density,
• accessibility to road (market),
• accessibility to other social services (e.g.
  health),
• income level,
• intensity of coffee /oil palm activity, and
• intensity of subsistence farming

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METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Dependent variables Df Biodiversity (of food crop) Dt other biodiversity Ag Garden Area W Welfare Ax Export crop Area Independent variables Px Price of export crop Pi Price of input for export crop Pm price of imported food Ag Garden Area Ax Export crop Area Xi intensity of export crop inputs/activity S access to services Sb intensity of subsistence Ds demand for staple food Other Measurements Price/Income/Cross Elasticities Producer/Consumer Surpluses Cost-benefit measure
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ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS

•      
• In Progress

But
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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION FOOD CROP GENETIC
STOCK/COLLECTIONS
Crop Accession Ex situ at
Banana 297 Laloki
Aibika 118 Laloki, Bubia, Kerevat
Cassava 79 Laloki, Kerevat
Yam 29 Bubia, Laloki
Taro 859 Bubia, Kerevat, Laloki
Lowland Sweet potato 103 Laloki, Kerevat, Bubia
Highland sweet potato 1161 Aiyura
SPYN collection 335 Laloki
The Indigenous fruits and nuts 15 species Kerevat
Minor leafy vegetables 12 ( of 7 species)  
Introduced exotic species of fruits and nuts 7 Kerevat
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FOOD CROP GENETIC COLLECTIONS

• Not representative of the whole country
• No cross-checking of the collection against what
  the farmers have in the field

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (COFFEE)

• Price of coffee has increased from about 2000
  PGK to 8000 PKG per ton between 1990 and 2007
• Volume of export has been steady at around 60 000
  tonnes between the same period.

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (OIL PALM)

• Oil Palm price has increased from about 300 PGK
  to about 2000 PKG per tone for the same period,
• while the volume of export increased slightly on
  a steady rate from 200 thousand to just over 300
  thousand tonnes

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT)

• Agriculture employment decline in the Highlands
  around the year 1997. An important link to food
  security issue (Top Fig).
• Agriculture employment increased from about the
  same time for the Island region
• There must have been an outmigration of labour
  from the highlands to the islands (or coastal)
  region.

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (RICE CONSUMPTION AND
PRODUCTION)

• Consumption per capita of rice has increased
  steadily between 1960 and 2000 (top fig)
• Local rice production has been very low and
  erratic, averaging at about 4 of the total rice
  consumed.

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (LAND USE
CLASSIFFICATION AND INTENSITY)

• Land use current data is very sparse
• LU0 land with very high intensity tree crops
• LU1 very high intensity of food crop, high pop
  density, and permanent agriculture, cultivation
  cycle of over five years
• LU2 high intensity land use, food production as
  the primary base in densely populated areas
• LU3 moderate intensity, food production,
  moderate density, with short to moderately long
  fallow periods.
• LU4 low intensity, common in low pop density
  mainly in coastal regions and some part of
  highlands, and moderately long periods

Source Saunders, 1993

• LU5 and LU6 Very low intensity, very low
  population density, esp. in low land areas where
  alternative food (e.g., sago and fish) supplement
  cultivated food, and where gardens are scattered
  are widely scattered

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SOME BASELINE INFORMATION (POPULATION DYNAMICS)

• PNGs population grow exponentially between 1972
  and 2007, from approximately 2.7 million to 5.6
  million.
• Population densities varies greatly with
  altitude, with the highest population densities
  occurring in the highlands region at elevation of
  between 1500 3000 m
• Current population growth rate is 2.3 pa.
• Food production growth rate is 1.2 pa.

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COMMENTS FROM STAKEHOLDERS MEETINGS

• How climatic change contributes to erosion of
  genetic biodiversity. Look at other trade policy
  apart from TRP and relate to Biodiversity (DEC).
• Recommend for further studies other biodiversity
• Look at policies and link the project back to
  policies
• Link the project to NADP and establish nature
  sanctuaries
• Land Use Planning in relation to the project
  (Petra)
• Land use can be controlled on state land, but
  would be very difficult on native land (DEC)
• Farmers preferences in growing what crop species
  for income earning opportunities depends on local
  market demands and responses (Petra)

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COMMENTS FROM THE STAKEHOLDERS MEETINGS (cont.)

• TRP-Special Products List (SPL) includes taro and
  sweet potato
• Possibility for export to Australia and NZ under
  the PACER arrangements
• Look at the use of Agric inputs (chemicals,
  machinery etc.) before and after Trade
  Liberalization
• TRP has impacted on local vegetable (introduces
  species) production. Increase production of
  cabbages, broccolis, carrots, English potatoes
  etc
• Bring in couple of land use indicators.
  Traditional farming VS Commercial farming and how
  this will affect biodiversity. (Base line
  studies)
• DAL land use section to find out land use
  patterns.
• Trade Policy should take into consideration
  Domestic Trade of food crops as well

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POSSIBLE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AREAS

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• Development of sanctuaries for food crop plant
  genetic resources (Links-Carbon Trade, NADP, DEC,
  BPNGSAP, Trade, Land Program)
• Regulations on usage of agricultural inputs
  (organic farming, faire trade),
• Guidelines on agricultural land conversions (land
  reform program)
• Development of improved farming systems
• Tariff quota on import of grain food to be
  considered on reasonable grounds
• Promote downstream processing of staple crops(
  e.g., taro ice cream)
• Agricultural incentives to be offered only on
  reasonable grounds
• Promote plantation foresting
• Designing biodiversity preservation
  (environmental) tax on the export of agricultural
  and timber products and use the proceeds to
  implement biodiversity preservation plans.
• A clear land use guidelines for Papua New
  Guineans

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POSSIBLE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AREAS (cont.)

• Develop a policy on domestic trade based on
  regional (provincial) endowment of staple crops
  and other natural resources.
• Integrate agriculture and population policy to
  achieve a population growth rate that is below
  the food production growth rate.
• Integrate agriculture, food security and health
  and nutrition polices especially HIV/AIDs
  policies to develop nutritional foods from staple
  foods that can sustain people living with
  HIV/AIDS,
• Trade negotiators and market agricultural market
  innovators to explore and negotiate markets for
  traditional food, art, craft, and others that
  will sustain the interest of preserving and
  managing the biodiversity on sustainable basis.

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NEXT STEPS

• Brief Description - the next steps in project
  implementation planned for the coming months.

June July Aug Sep Oct
Field Surveys and Analysis
Other desktop research
Third NSC Meeting
Data Analysis
Report Writing
Second National Review
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ACHIEVEMENTS

• Policy Reviews
• Conceptual Development
• Indicators and Criteria
• Methodology Development
• 2nd NSC Meeting
• 1st National Review Meeting

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CHALLENGES

• Complexity of the project
• Non-availability of secondary data
• Socio-cultural difficulties in collecting primary
  data
• Indifferent attitudes from line
  deparments/agencies