Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

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Environmental damage Combining impact and
vulnerability
BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November,
Ronneby, Sweden
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• Environmental damage Combining impact and
  vulnerability

• Objective
• How to combine Impact with Vulnerabilityto
  obtain Damage?
• The numerical result for damage must be applied
  to identify damage differences for different
  scenarios

Damage ref
Diff 1
Damage 1
Diff 2
Damage 2
Diff 3
Damage 3
Diff 4
Damage 4
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• Environmental damage Combining impact and
  vulnerability

• Definition of Damage
• General definition Risk Probability
  Consequence, EUR/year
• Present definition Risk Probability
  ImpactVulnerability, g oil'/y/m²)
• Damage calculation Integration of risk over
  frequencies and area, g oil'
• Damage is
• amount of oil in each cell, spilt due to
  accidents (including drift, etc.)
• weighted according to env. and soc.-eco.
  vulnerability per cell
• time-averaged (seldom big frequent small
  spills)
• summarised for a sub-region

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Impact x Vulnerability
gt Damage
Base case Surface
Damage
Base case Water column
All seasons, spill sizes, oil types, all winds,
all accidents
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• Environmental damage 3 types of impact

• Oil on shore Mass of oil per shoreline in a
  specific sub-region. Combined with vulnerability
  of shoreline.
• Oil on surface mass (oil) per area water
  surface. combined with surface vulnerability
• Oil in the water columnmass (oil) per area water
  column (horizontal area assuming 20-60 m layer
  thickness). combined with water column
  vulnerability

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• Balance of impact and vulnerability

• Challenging question How shall environmental
  and socio-economic Damage balance Impact and
  Vulnerability?
• Mutual decisionImpact and Vulnerability shall
  be of equal consequence for environmental and
  socio-economic Damage"100 Damage 50 Impact
  50 Vulnerability"

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• Frequency analysis of data sets

• Frequency analysis of impact dataset Range
  (0-10.000.000)gt dominant
• Frequency analysis of vulnerability
  datasetRange 1-50

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Transformation of dataset

• Impact Unchanged (physical dimension)
• Vulnerability Transformed (index)
• Range of the vulnerability data is transformed so
  range is equal in both data sets

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Transformation of dataset

• Preparation of comparable dataset

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• Process

• 24249 80 maps
• TransformationMultiplication24972
  datasets9 damage maps5x(9-1) 40 values

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• Summary

• Results
• Method to determine absolute damage (kg oil
  weighted).
• Determine damage differences for each scenario

Sub-region Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios
Sub-region 3) VTS (selected) 4) TSS(selected) 5) AIS alarms (selected) 6) E-navigation 7) ETV in Ireland 8) Visi-bility 9) Disper-sants only 10) 50, 1 ves. DK
1 15 24 156 2.242 146 112 -130 151
2 120 97 24 2.348 0 9 -291 126
3 5.334 8.353 263 5.017 0 44 -6.582 396
4 20.881 5.476 3.121 48.596 0 1.825 -29.400 3.714
5 661 1 64 5.195 1 147 -5.626 268
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Thank youbeaware.bonnagreement.org
Questions?