WBI Risk Analysis

1
Elements of Risk Analysis Hazard and
Vulnerability
Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai
Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis
2
Learning Objectives

• Learn
• The basic elements and processes of hazard
  analysis.
• The basic dimensions and elements in
  vulnerability analysis.
• The concepts of multi-hazard, exposure,
  susceptibility and resilience.
• Understand
• Spatial, dimensional and temporal components of
  hazard analysis.
• Progression of vulnerability associated with root
  causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions.
• Scales, sectors and components for vulnerability
  analysis.
• Use of indicators in vulnerability analysis.
• Coupling and interaction between hazard and
  vulnerability and the dependency of vulnerability
  on hazard.

3
Hazard Analysis

• Hazard analysis describes and assesses the
  probability of occurrence of an extreme natural
  event at a specific place, at a specific time,
  and with specific intensity and duration for a
  vulnerable population.
• Where? How Big? How Often?
• Output Severity of event by location

This map shows relative shaking hazards in the
United States and Puerto Rico. During a 50-year
time period, the probability of strong shaking
increases from very low (white), to moderate
(light blue, green, and yellow), to high (orange,
pink, and red). Blue dots are past
earthquakes. Map not to scale. Source USGS
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Where, How Big, How Often?

• Where are the areas which are potentially
  threatened?
• Analyze extent of impacted area

spatial analysis
1

• How bad can it get? What are the dimensions?
• Analyze local characteristics
• With what intensity and force do hazards occur?
  
• On what scale to the hazards occur?

dimensional analysis
2

• When and how often are future hazards to be
  expected?
• Analyze frequency and duration of the hazard
  event
• Intervals (or cycles) of recurrence

temporal analysis
3

5
Multi-hazard Analysis

• Analysis of only single hazards in an area might
  lead to a misjudgement of the all hazards
  risks for these areas.
• Indexing can be one way of combining different
  hazards in one map.
• Hazards may be weighted equally or weights can be
  assigned based on the frequency of each hazard.
• Comparisons between the impact of different
  natural hazards on a population are more
  correctly performed by examining risk rather than
  hazard indicators.

6
Vulnerability

• Paradox Measuring vulnerability without
  precisely defining it!
• Vulnerability defined as conditions determined
  by physical, social, economic, and environmental
  factors or processes, which increase the
  susceptibility of a community to the impact of
  hazards. (UNISDR, 2004)
• Multi-structures of Vulnerability
• Exposure/Value
• Fragility/Susceptibility
• Coping Capacity/Resilience

7
Progression of Vulnerability
THE PROGRESS OF VULNERABILITY
1
2
3
ROOT CAUSES
DYNAMIC PRESSURES
UNSAFE CONDITIONS
HAZARDS

• Physical Environment
• Dangerous Locations
• Unprotected buildings and infrastructure
• Economy
• Livelihoods at risk
• Low income level
• Social Relations
• Populations at risk
• Lack of solidarity
• Public actions and Institutions
• Lack of disaster preparedness

• Lack of
• Legal frameworks
• Institutions
• Training
• Appropriate skills
• Local Investments
• Press Freedom
• Ethical Standards in public life

Earthquake Wind storms (cyclone/ hurricane/ Typh
oon) Flooding Volcanic eruption Landslides Dro
ught Virus and pests

• Limited Access to
• Power
• Structures
• Resources

Disaster

• Ideologies
• Political Systems
• Economic Systems

• Macro Forces
• Rapid Population change
• Rapid Urbanization

Source Blaike et al. (1996)
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A Vulnerability Framework
HAZARD
Hazard Intervention
Vulnerability Intervention
International/National Sub-national Local
VULNERABILITY
SUSCEPTIBILITY and FRAGILITY
LACK OF RESILIENCE

Exposure Reduction Fragility /
Susceptibility Reduction Resilience Improvement
EXPOSURE
Capacity to anticipate
Spatial/ Temporal
Capacity to cope
Capacity to recover
Adjusted from MOVE (2009)
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Resilience

• Resilience is the capacity of an individual,
  community, organization, city, nation to respond,
  cope and recover from a disaster.
• Resilience in physical and social systems can be
  seen as having four infrastructural qualities
• Robustness the inherent strength or resistance
  in a system to withstand external demands without
  degradation or loss of functionality
• Redundancy system properties that allow for
  alternate options, choices, and substitutions
  under stress
• Resourcefulness the capacity to mobilize needed
  resources and services in emergencies and
• Rapidity the speed with which disruption can be
  overcome and safety, services, and financial
  stability restored.

10
Vulnerability Dependency on Hazard
Degree of Vulnerability of an infrastructure, a
community, a society or a process should be
related to the magnitude of the hazard in
question through fragility curves (or fragility
functions).
Maize
Sorghum
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Scales, Sectors and Components of Vulnerability
fractal nature of Vulnerability
Ministry of Education
School District
School Principal
Source Villagrán, (2001)
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Vulnerability Analysis - Indicators

• Many aspects of vulnerability cannot be directly
  measured or observed, though they can be
  described.
• Indicators have been used broadly in economic,
  social and environmental analysis of
  vulnerability.
• Vulnerability indicators should provide
  information regarding the susceptibility, coping
  capacity and resilience of a system.
• Below is a mathematical description of risk as a
  function of the nature of a hazard and the
  vulnerability to that hazard.

.
13
A Social Vulnerability Index
Fragility Factors (-)
Resilience Factors ()
Theme

• Social Fragility
• How do personal attributes and living situations
  affect vulnerability?
• How do finances contribute to recovery?

• Coping Capacity
• How do social networks affect vulnerability?
• How does access to services affect vulnerability?

Conceptual Framework
1 Family Structure
2 Poverty
3 Unemployment
4 Disability
5 Home/Land Ownership
1 Social Networks
2 Risk Perception
3 Risk Mitigation
4 Community Preparedness
5 Mobility
Quantitative Indicators
Social Vulnerability Index
Source MIS model , 2009
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Process of Risk Analysis
EVENT
Time
HAZARD
DAMAGES LOSSES
Space
VULNERABILITY
Exposed Assets Physical, Social, Environmental,
Financial
Susceptibility
Coping Capacity
RISK
Time
Space
INTERVENTION