Step By Step Final Conference Stepping Stones

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Step By StepFinal Conference Stepping Stones
IBDiM Road and Bridge Research Institute (Poland)

• Cracow,
• ERA-NET Transport III
• Stepping Stones Program
• Wim Korver

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Content

• Background
• Research questions
• Can cities be grouped based on their transport
  characteristics?
• Our cases an overview
• Our approach to measure success
• Analysis based on success ratings
• Policy Recommendations based on case analysis
• Conclusions

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Background

• Transport will become in
• Europe the major producer of CO2 emissions
• Technology will help, but on a local/regional
  scale more is needed behavioural changes are
  needed to reach objectives (a sustainable
  mobility system)
• A lot of national initiatives e.g. CIVITAS,
  Better Benutten (NL) and Forschungsprogramm
  Stadtverkehr (GE)
• What can we learn from existing behavioural
  interventions (case analysis)

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Research Questions
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Main Objective

• Stepping Stones
• 1.To understand the successful (policy) measures
  aimed at making mobility patterns more
  sustainable and the underlying mechanisms (the
  how) including social psychological factors.
• 2.The research results should be of common
  interest across Europe or in several regions.
• Step By Step
• Identifying potential successful policy measures
  for changing the transport behaviour of people
  based on structural differences between cities
  and cultures

What we know after the project is completed
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Base Research Approach

• Empirical based the use of (urban) cases
• Structural versus behavioural factors

CASES CITIES
Type of measure
Theory of Cialdini Persuasion strategies
City Type
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Can European cities be clustered into homogeneous
groups?
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Approach two datasets

• Urban Audit (Eurostat)
• 785 cities
• Mainly demographical, geographical and
  economical data
• Base year 2009
• Limited information on transport use
• TEMS-EPOMM dataset
• 165 cities
• Different base years
• Shares of different transport modes (modal split)
• No information on total transport volumes
• New dataset is created and will be available for
  others (via ERA-NET Transport website)

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Analysis combining all kind of variables
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Analysis 6 major explanatory factors for mobility

1. Total population of a city
2. Average household income (not a person!)
3. Surface total area of the city
4. Population density
5. Total number of private cars registered
6. Cars per inhabitant of that city

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European cities can be clustered into three major
groups. But some overlaps occur, European cities
are not that easy to cluster
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31 CASES 15 CITIES
O1 O2
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Structural Factors Typology of cities
Type N Within Step By Step
Car Oriented 4 Rotterdam, Tubingen, Gothenburg, Manchester
Public Transport Oriented 6 Dresden, Berlin, Warsaw, Cracow, Wroclaw, Stockholm
Multimodal oriented 5 Amsterdam, Breda, Munich, Freiburg, Malmo/Lund
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Empirical work based on 31 cases
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Empirical work based on 31 cases
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• Within report one page descriptions with
• description of the project
• project objective(s)
• results and
• lessons learned

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Step By Step Approach
Measures taken in our cases
Structural factors
Typology of cities based on structural
factors A
Classification of type of behavioural influence
in the cases B
Assess successful-ness C
Cities/ Regions
(indications of) Success as a function of Cf(A
B)
Other factors not measured
Other measures taken in the city at the same time
or before
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What is success?

• Depends on whom you ask
• Project leader, politician, interest groups,
  user, all will have different views
• Success on what? Success can be divided in
  several aspects
• Less car use, different opinions, budget spent,
  etc.
• There are grades of success

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Rating every case based on Five Steps Approach

• 1. Was the process well performed?
• identification of problem/problems to be
  solved/reduced?
• choice of measure that were "appropriate" to
  solve the problem/problems?
• formulation of targets or goals?
• "enough" communication and dialogue with
  stakeholders and/or the public?
• 2. Barriers for implementation and how they were
  handled
• There were barriers for implementation but they
  were overcome and the implementation was fully
  performed
• There were barriers for implementation which were
  only partly overcome and the implementation
  process had to be adjusted.
• There were non, or only small, barriers and the
  implementation could be performed according to
  plan
• 3. Were the effects evaluated?
• All effects were evaluated according to initial
  formulation of targets and/or goals
• Some effects were evaluated
• No evaluation was made
• 4. Were the goals reached? Or (if no targets)
  were the effects "large"?
• Yes/ partly/ no
• 5. Is the work being continued to maintain or
  increase effects?
• yes to large extent/ partly / no

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Success rate between 3 and 9
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Mix of successfull unsuccessfull cases. Rating
per type of measure is more or less the same
Transport concept
Demand
Attitude
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Rating per city type is more or less the same,
however car oriented cities rate lowest
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Lower success rates as a result of less
evaluation and lower goal fulfillment
N31
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Behavioral aspects The power of persuasion

• CIALDINI
• Social Proof - People do things they see other
  people doing
• Authority - People will obey authority figures
• Liking - People are persuaded by others they like
  (Facebook)
• Scarcity - Perceived scarcity will generate
  demand
• Reciprocity Tit for tat. Fairness
• Commitment and Consistency - If committed,
  continue

N31
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Behavioural Aspects

• No relation between kind of persuasion strategy
  and success
• If no persuasion strategy could be found (29),
  success rates are lower. Think at before hand
  about the kind of persuasive strategies
• Do not communicate in terms like objective
  elements like the bus/bicycle is quicker, cheaper
  or things like that, but try to relate to the
  actual behavioural motives
• Adaptive approach Successful cases show
  different kind of persuasion strategies
• In most cases behavioural persuasion strategies
  are implicitly included, not explicitly

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General policy recommendations

• Process
• Implementation
• Evaluation
• Goal Fulfilment
• Continuation

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1. Process oriented

• In order to influence travel behavior, there
  needs to be a person who is responsible. Meaning
• This person (or group of persons) plays the role
  of a spider in the network function and
  preferably this person can be found within city
  administration, sometimes outside city
  administration
• In most successful cases, the person/group was
  able to create a special local network of key
  institutions and players supporting the strategy
• Focus on positive aspects (benefits, such as
  health or better accessibility) and not negative
  aspects (higher costs)

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2. Implementation

• A sound problem analysis is needed
• What is the problem/challenge what are the
  options
• Window of opportunity needs to be identified
• Coming from a specific national or European
  funding scheme, special event (National Road
  Construction Plan, Dresden flood 2002, Extra
  funding from car parking fees in Amsterdam, etc.)
• If there is no obvious window, use an experiment
  project or a temporary project first
• As each city with its players, its culture, its
  level of discussion etc. at one time is different
  from another city with other specific conditions,
  all windows of opportunity are somehow different
  from each other (e.g. German reunification)
• Use experimental opportunities like European week
  of mobility/car free Sunday for the first steps
• City administration always is a central player
  and needs to act
• In most all cases, support by a highly visible
  mayor/politician is essential
• City administrations needs both the will and the
  resources to do something

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3. Monitoring and Evaluation (ME) After
implementing, ME are absolutely essential for
identification of positive/negative effects

• a. ME for identifying the positive and expected
  effects, which is needed to promote the result
  that the measure was successful
• b. ME are essential to identify any negative
  effects so that these could be corrected in the
  next round
• c. ME is essential to be able to identify
  changed conditions which require changed
  objectives for the next round
• d. ME is essential to maintain the process, to
  keep the momentum and to establish a SUMP
  tradition in the city
• e. ME should be constructed in such a way that
  not only regular aspects like accessibility and
  environmental effects are measured, but more soft
  impacts like Quality of Life
• f. Measure that influence land use patterns are
  most important in the long run, they should be
  included in all long term strategies. However,
  from an ME viewpoint, they are difficult to
  monitor. If possible include them.
• g. ME is only possible if the target groups are
  defined properly even in the early stages of the
  process

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4. Goal Fulfilment

• Set realistic goals
• Behavioural changes take time
• Push pull packages are more efficient and
  superior to other packages of measures
• Every type of measure can be successful or
  unsuccessful
• Economic incentives seem to be slightly more
  effective than other measures
• Size doesnt matter small projects can be
  effective and large ineffective and visa versa

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5. Continuation

• There is a life after the project
• Maintain, improve and develop
• Ideally, aspects of continuation are already
  included by setting up the project

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Conclusions

• All policy measures can be successful (or
  unsuccessful), though
• Economic incentives measures seem to be more
  successful
• Cities do differ (structural factors) but this
  has a small impact on successfulness of policy
  measures
• Measures in car oriented cities are slightly less
  successful (more resistance?)
• How measures are implemented and defined has a
  major impact on successfulness. Successful
  measures have a sound problem definition,
  realistic targets, use a specific window of
  opportunity, have an elaborate ME program and
  have thought at before hand on the life after the
  project
• Behavioural methodologies/strategies are mostly
  used implicitly