Nearest Neighbor Conference

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Nearest Neighbor Conference

• INFORMS Decision Support
• Using Most Similar Neighbor Analysis
• To Create Landscape Data
• For NEPA Analysis

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Overview

• Create a current wall to wall vegetation layer.
• Grow stand data to current and future year
  conditions.
• Create alternatives and model vegetation
  treatments (i.e. thinning) for NEPA analysis and
  impacts evaluation.
• Run models to evaluate and compare alternatives.

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Included Applications

• NRIS INFORMS
• A project-level landscape analysis framework.
• NRIS FSVeg
• Forest Service Field-Sampled Vegetation
  database.
• Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)
• An individual-tree, distance-independent growth
  and yield model.
• Most Similar Neighbor (MSN)
• A powerful application used to impute available
  ground-based inventory data to non-inventoried
  units.
• Stand Visualization System (SVS)
• Visualize time-step data on a stand by stand
  basis.
• Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE)
• A fire spread simulator.

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Data Requirements

• FSVeg stand exam data
• Local stand coverage (which relates to the data
  in the FSVeg database)
• Non-forested survey data (i.e. rangeland data).
• Forest FVS Variant Files
• Most Similar Neighbor analysis
• DEM derived grids for Slope (in radians), Slope
  Catchment Area, Insulation and Duration.
• Landsat grids for reflectance values for bands 1,
  2, 3, 4, 5 and 7.

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NEPA Analysis Process
FSVeg Data
Sampled Vegetation and Fuels Data
FVS/FFE
Most Similar Neighbor (MSN)
DEM Landsat
Wall-to-Wall Current Vegetation and Fuels Data
Legend Yellow Inputs Blue Outputs Green
Models
Treatment Alternative
FVS/FFE
Wall-to-Wall Future Years Vegetation and Fuels
Data (No Action and Alternative)
Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE)
Stand Visualization System (SVS)
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Process Overview

• Running MSN
• Creating the No Action Alternative
• Alternative Building
• Evaluating Alternative Impacts
• INFORMS Prescription Definition
• Summary

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• 1. Running MSN

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How is Most Similar Neighbor Used?

• The MSN application is used to impute available
  ground-based inventory data to non-inventoried
  units.
• The MSN method uses available data from the
  ground-based sample units and globally available
  data measured on all sample units to guide the
  imputation.
• Examples of global information for all sample
  units include topographic data and satellite
  imagery.
• Landscape of vegetation data is available for
  analysis based on imputations from the MSN
  process.

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MSN Calibration

• MSN analysis command files are prepared and
  tested for each FVS variant. Calibration
  (selection of variables) is the most critical
  part of Most Similar Neighbor analysis.
• Variables contained in the command files are
  carefully selected in cooperation with the
  researchers who developed the Most Similar
  Neighbor application and methods.
• Once calibrated, there is a standardized
  methodology for each FVS variant.

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MSN Calibration Variables
Calibration is the process of finding the correct
combination of global and sampled data for each
FVS variant. Global Data Data that is available
for all polygons (i.e. slope, aspect, Landsat,
etc.). Sampled Data Data that is available for
sampled polygons (i.e. stand exams) or other
vegetation sampling (i.e. range data, fuels
plots). Examples include Basal Area, Trees per
Acre, QMD, Volumes, etc.
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Where MSN is calibrated by FVS Variant
Completed
Not Done Yet
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Forests Mapped with MSN
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MSN MappingStatus by National Forest
Forests Completed
Forests In Progress

• Region 1
• Idaho Panhandle
• Region 3
• Lincoln
• Carson
• Gila
• Coconino
• Kaibab
• Apache-Sitgreaves2 districts

• Region 1
• Nez-Perce
• Region 3
• Santa-Fe
• Cibola
• Corrinodo
• Tonto

• Region 6
• Malheur
• Umatilla2 districts
• Wallowa-Whitman2 districts
• Deschutes2 districts
• Siuslaw1 district

• Region 9
• Chippewa
• Region 8
• Ouachita2 districts
• Daniel-Boone

Near completion 2/2006
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MSN Vegetation Grouping

• Most Similar Neighbor analysis is run separately
  on Forested and Non-Forested polygons.
• Vegetation polygons must be divided into three
  groups by the local GIS shop by adding an
  attribute into the local stands layer
• Forested Vegetation (FV)
• Non-Forested Vegetation (NF)
• Non-Vegetated (NV)

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Preparing Global and Sampled Data in INFORMS

• Global Data Preparation Tool Summarizes data
  from the DEM and Landsat Scene into an input
  format for Most Similar Neighbor analysis.
• Sampled Data Preparation Tool for Forested
  Polygons Grows all stand data forward to the
  year of the Landsat scene to calibrate stand data
  to the current condition using FVS.
• Sampled Data Preparation Tool for Non-Forested
  Polygons Data is currently used to impute Fuel
  Models only. Work is being done in conjunction
  with USDA Risk Management agency to develop
  methods to calibrate MSN to produce detailed data
  for non-forested vegetation.

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Running MSN

• MSN is run as a tool in INFORMS once all of the
  data is prepared.
• Go/no go statistics are presented when MSN is
  run. This advises the user whether the MSN run
  should be used for further analysis.
• Statistics are also produced for specific
  vegetation attributes resulting from the MSN run.
  (e.g. basal area, stand height, etc.)

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MSN Forest Vegetation Quality
Gray Reference (sampled) stands Green OK
Quality (Imputed) Red Poor Quality
(Imputed) Yellow Non-Veg (rocks, lakes,
etc.) Brown Non-Forest (grass, shrubs, etc.)
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MSN Report for Forested Vegetation
Produced with each MSN run is the MSN Report. It
is a text file summarizing the key elements of
the MSN run. These are the attributes in the
vegetation map.
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MSN Results

• The MSN results are stored in a copy of the NRIS
  FSVeg database table NRV_MSN_FOR_USE.
• This table contains a list of links of un-sampled
  stand polygons pointing them to their most
  similar neighbor with sampled data.
• This process allows INFORMS tools to use imputed
  data without loading hypothetical data into the
  corporate FSVeg stand and tree tables.

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Reference Stands

• NRV_MSN_FOR_USE Reference Stands
• Stands with sampled data.
• Note FOR_GIS_LINK and USE1_GIS_LINK are the
  same.

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Imputed Stands

• NRV_MSN_FOR_USE Imputed Stands
• Stands that have not been sampled.
• Note FOR_GIS_LINK and USE1_GIS_LINK are
  different.
• USE1_GIS_LINK is the best match.

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Imputed MSN Stands
Red MSN Imputed Stands Blue FSVeg Stand
Exams Yellow No Data
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How does MSN help the Forest Service?

• Provides a method to easily maintain and annually
  update a current vegetation layer.
• Provides a current wall-to-wall vegetation layer
  containing base-scale attributes.
• Allows a site to grow the current vegetation
  layer forward into the future using FVS for
  analysis of future conditions. Some examples
  are
• Current and Future Fire Regime Condition Class
  (FRCC)
• Current and Future Vegetative Structural Stage
  (VSS)
• Current and Future individual stand burning
  conditions
• Allows for modeling of treatments to the
  vegetation layer for NEPA analysis and impacts
  evaluation.

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Vegetation Layer

• The results from FVS and MSN are used to
  generate current and future vegetation layers for
  each decade in the simulation.

Fuel Model Same Year
With MSN
Without MSN
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Base FVS Vegetation Layer

• A wall-to-wall base vegetation layer is built for
  each decade in the simulation. This layer
  contains information such as basal area, stand
  height, qmd, canopy cover, overstory dbh and more.

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Fuels Analysis Data

• The results from FVS and MSN are used to generate
  current and future fuels data layers for each
  decade in the simulation.
• Attributes in the layers include fuel model,
  crown bulk density, torching index, etc.
• These data layers can be used to compare fire
  behavior changes over time. This is done in two
  ways
• Data required for FARSITE is prepared for each
  decade.
• A Fire Intensity Map is created for each decade.

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MSN Accuracy Assessment

• Work is being done to produce a standard accuracy
  assessment methodology for MSN as used in
  INFORMS. Cooperators are
• Natural Resource Information System (NRIS)
• Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS)
• Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC)
• An accuracy assessment was performed on the
  Lincoln National Forest (Region 3) in 2005. The
  above-mentioned parties will produce a report in
  2006.
• Once this approach is finalized, it should
  provide a standard by which to evaluate base
  vegetation layer maps.

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• 2. Creating the
• No Action Alternative

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Creating No Action Alternatives
Basal Area
No Action Plus Disturbance
No Action
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Crown Fire Initiation Maps

• 2005
  2045

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Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC)

• Output 1 Classification of existing vegetation
  into potential natural vegetation groups (PNVG)
  if the local site does not have an existing PNVG
  map.
• Output 2 Seral stage classifications.
• Report
• Calculation of percent of each seral stage by
  PNVG within the analysis area.
• Calculation of FRCC for each PNVG.
• Overall FRCC

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FRCC - PNVG
Potential Natural Vegetation Groups (PNVG)
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FRCC - Seral Class
2005
2045
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• 3. Alternative Building

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Alternative Building in INFORMS

• Vegetative future conditions are created by
  defining alternatives and applying vegetative
  treatment prescriptions.
• There are three methods for applying
  prescriptions to a stand or a portion of a stand.
  A tool is available to split a stand.
• If MSN analysis is used, prescriptions can be
  applied to imputed stands (stands which do not
  have a stand exam in FSVeg).
• Treatments are applied through FVS keyword files.
  This changes future condition vegetative values.

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Prescription Assignment
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Prescription AssignmentView Results
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• 4. Evaluating Alternative Impacts

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Evaluating Impacts for Alternatives

• The results of the prescription treatments from
  FVS are used to generate current and future
  vegetation data for each decade in the
  simulation.
• The treated alternative layers contain treated
  and untreated stands for the complete analysis
  area.
• This allows for comparison of effects between the
  no action and treatment alternatives at different
  time steps.

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Examples Alternative Evaluation

• Current/Future year comparisons
• Crown Fire Initiation
• FARSITE
• Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC)
• Vegetation Structural Stage (VSS) (Region
  Specific)

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Basal Area Before and After Treatment Same Year
Burn Simulation Treatment
No Treatment
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Risk Map Before and After Treatment Same Year
No Action
Alternative A
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FARSITE Before and After Treatment Same Year

• No Action
  Alternative A

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Crown Fire Initiation
No Action
Treatment
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• 5. INFORMS Prescriptions

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Vegetative Treatments

• Vegetation treatments can be created using the
  Forest Vegetation Simulator front-end Suppose
  (GUI).
• In INFORMS, treatments can be applied to stands
  by selecting them on an ArcView map, from a list
  of stands or with a GIS overlay.
• Treatments are applied through FVS keyword files.
  This changes future condition vegetative values.

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INFORMS Prescriptions

• Prescriptions, as used in INFORMS, are a
  collection of FVS keyword files which can be
  assigned to stands.
• INFORMS uses FVS to modify the vegetative
  landscape to represent alternative future
  conditions.
• Sources of FVS keyword files
• Many regions are creating standard keyword files
• Forest Health is creating keyword files for
  modeling pest impacts
• Local FVS users can create their own keyword files

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Stand Visualization System (SVS)

• SVS visually demonstrates the effects of
  treatments.
• Better ID team and public communication of
  prescription treatment results.

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Stand Visualization SystemWildfire Example
Wildfire in 2035
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Stand Visualization System
Underburn Now, Wildfire in 2035
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Stand Visualization System
Thin Now, Wildfire in 2035
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• 5. Summary

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Fuels Analysis Process
FSVeg Data
Sampled Vegetation and Fuels Data
FVS/FFE
Most Similar Neighbor (MSN)
DEM Landsat
Wall-to-Wall Current Vegetation and Fuels Data
Legend Yellow Inputs Blue Outputs Green
Models
Treatment Alternative
FVS/FFE
Wall-to-Wall Future Years Vegetation and Fuels
Data (No Action and Alternative)
Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE)
Stand Visualization System (SVS)
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Summary

• INFORMS currently provides a methodology for
  vegetative treatments and fuels analysis.
• INFORMS provides the ability to produce multiple
  alternatives for various treatment scenarios.
• MSN provides the ability to do landscape-level
  NEPA analysis (i.e. fire spread).

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Cooperators

• Rocky Mountain Research Station (Nick Crookston
  Al Stage)
• Forest Pest Management (Carol Randall Jim
  Stone)
• Region 3 Fire Fuels (David Martinez)
• Los Alamos National Laboratory
• Texas AM (USDA Risk Management Agency)
• Mescalero Apache Reservation, Taos Pueblo

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For More Information

• Eric Twombly Project Leader
• Lynne Bridgford GIS Developer
• Jonathan Marston Developer
• Tom Warmath - Trainer

FS Web fsweb.nris.fs.fed.us/products/INFORMS WWW
www.fs.fed.us/informs