Uncertainty assessment

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Uncertainty assessmentCase Particulate
matter

• Jeannette Beck, Environmental Assessment Agency,
  MNP

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Communication on uncertainties?
Sweet fruit
Bulk of fruit
Low-hanging fruit
Lying fruit
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Case Particulate Matter in the Netherlands

• 1999 EU air quality norms for Particulate Matter
• 2001 Limit values have been implemented in Dutch
  legislation
• Message RIVM/MNP (1997- 2005) Limit value is
  exceeded in large areas of NL ? 2020
• Litigation section of the Council of State
• Judicial regime construction and expansion plans
  blocked due to conflicts with Air Quality Decree
• 2005 more than 40 projects lodged
• Survey 100,000 residences, 4500 hectares of
  industrial development faced with cancellation

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Dilemmas sleepless nights

• Uncertainties are 10-20 (3-6 µg/m3), but
• Plans are rejected on 0.1 µg/m3
• Reaction of society Call for more detail (street
  level)

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Improve transparancy and quality control

• Particulate Matter a closer look
• What do we know, what dont we know?
• 25,000 downloads
• Background report
• Website www.mnp.nl/gcn.html
• Scientific international review of our models
• Review and advice of the logistics
• Many other reports PM10, methods, policy support
• Presentations about the methods
• Protocol New insights

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Role of MNP and Ministry of the Environment in
policy process

• Agreement on responsibilities
• MNP
• MNP produces large scale concentration maps every
  year
• Past (2006) and Future (2010-2020)
• Ministry
• Choice of scenario
• Used by local authorities plans and programmes
• Reporting Cities ? Provinces ? Federal ?
  Brussels

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MNPs communication on exceedances
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Still responsible? simplification wanted

• Policy process goes beyond scientific
  uncertainties
• Administrators shift the responsibility on to
  science
• New law on air pollution
• Request for too much detail
• ? Looking for a way out of the swamp
• Simple rules (50 km/h)
• Less tailor-made solutions for specific
  circumstances/ locations
• Not possible in current legislation

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Thank you for your attention