Highway Risk Mitigation through Systems Engineering

1
Highway Risk Mitigation through Systems
Engineering
2
Terms and Definitions

• Critical Infrastructure (CI)
• System
• Transportation CI
• System of Systems (SoS)
• Major Cities
• City Boundary
• Network

3
Terms and Definitions

• Movement of Goods
• Trucks
• Peak Traffic
• Normal Traffic
• Other Traffic
• Days of Operation

4
Terms and Definitions

• Node
• Arc ? Link
• Disconnect
• Shortest Path
• Steady State
• Snapshot of System

• Highway
• Defined Links
• Worst Link
• Best Link

5
Objective

• The objective of this dissertation is to develop
  a methodology, using a SE approach, and apply the
  methodology to a mathematical model, using
  performance metrics such as travel time and flow,
  to simulate the impacts K Links disconnects have
  on highway networks of major metropolitan cities
  for risk mitigation and resource allocation

6
Brief Literature Review

• SE
• Osmundson et al, The Journal of The International
  Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 2004
• Tahan et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005
• Bahill et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005
• Blanchard et al, Stems Engineering and
  Analysis, 1990
• INCOSE, Systems Engineering Handbook, 2004
• Hazelrigg, Sys. Eng. An Approach to
  Information-Based Design 1996
• Miller et al, Systems Engineering Management,
  2002
• Stock et al, Strategic Logistics Management,
  1993
• Ibarra et al, Conference for Systems Engineering,
  2005
• Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and
  Management, 2004
• US Department of Homeland Security, Budget in
  Brief, Fiscal Year 2005

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Brief Literature Review

• Modeling
• Osmundson et al, The Journal of The International
  Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 2004
• Bahill et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005
• Sathe et al, Transportation Research Board, 2005
• Jain et al, Transportation Science, 1997
• Arroyo et al, Transportation Research Board, 2005
• Rardin, Optimizations in Operations Research,
  1998
• Rinaldi et al, IEEE Control System Magazine. 2001
• Murray-Tuite, Dissertation, 2003

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Research Significance

• Contribution This dissertation provides
  officials a decision-making methodology and tool
  for resource allocation and risk mitigation
• Metrics that measure the performance of the
  network given disconnects occurring
• Ranking of K Links affecting the network the most

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Network
Research Significance
L1
L2
L3

• Output
• Performance
• Travel Time/Throughput

Input Single Disconnect 1/0
I35W
I35E
Hwy 75
I30
L4
I20
I1
I20
L5
L9
I1
I35W
I35E
I45

• Variables
• Temporal
• Time of Day I 1, 2, 3 (peak, norm, other)
• Links l (i,j), (i1), (j1),, (in, jn)

L8
L7
L6
10
Example of Model Performance for a General Metric
Research Significance
OUTPUTS
, ,
Sum of Performance
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Example of Model
Research Significance
OUTPUTS
Worst
K Links 2,11, , 1,12 affecting the
Transportation CI the most
Performance
Best
Links
0 is threshold
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Research Significance

• Decision Making Methodology and Tool

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The Systems Engineering Process
System Solution
System Requirements
Functional Analysis
V
Validate Verify
System Objective
Simulation Processing Time
City Boundary
Simulation Processing Time
Section of City
Small Network
Enumeration
Actual Model
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The Systems Engineering Process

• Defining the System System of Systems

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Need Analysis
• Stakeholders
• City
• State and Federal
• Business
• Society

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Requirements
• Mission Definition
• Performance and Physical Parameters
• Use Requirements

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Transportation CI SoS

• INPUT
• Disconnects
• Hrs of Op.

• PROCESS
• Mathematical
• model

• OUTPUT
• Performance

Components
Perf. of Defined Links
Efficiently Finding K Links
Movement of Goods
Relationships

• Flow
• Distance

• Links
• Nodes
• Efficiency
• of model

• Disconnects
• Hours of
• operation

Attributes
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The Systems Engineering Process

• Ground Rules and Assumptions
• Highway
• Major Cities
• Steady State
• Disconnect
• Shortest Path
• Snapshot of System

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Metrics
• Performance of Network
• Travel Time
• Throughput

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Model
• Most naive process
• Disconnect Link (Ai,j) subject to Time (tn)
• Simulate Network Performance
• Connect Link (Ai,j)
• Repeat until all links tested

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The Systems Engineering Process

• Model (Continued)
• Objective
• Performance of Network based on Defined Links
• Constraints
• Mathematical model of how the system responds to
  changes in variables
• Variables
• Time of Day
• Disconnected Links

22
Example of Model Effects of Disconnect on Link
(a,b)
D Avg. T 2.5 Min/Veh
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Example of Model
The Systems Engineering Process
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Validation and Verification
The Systems Engineering Process

• SE Approach
• Integrations Process
• Verify and Validate Requirements
• Model
• Small Network
• Enumeration
• Efficiency of Model

V
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Conclusion

• Transportation CI is important
• To individuals way of life
• To companies way of doing business
• Proposed a Methodology using a Mathematical Model
  to Determine Impact of K Links Disconnects have
  on the Defined Links of a Network for risk
  mitigation and resource allocation

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Conclusion

• Research Significance
• Society A Methodology and Tool for Officials to
  use in the Decision Making Process
• Engineering Systems Engineering Approach for
  Solving Complex Systems

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Questions

• What is cost of truck if delayed by 15 minutes
• Airplanes at 1,000 per minute 2002 (Vacante)
• Show how it has practical implication
• Convert time to cost
• Tell city fathers what they need to fix and where
  do you beef up security and resources
• If you cannot go straight, then which way?
• Time to fix link?
• Minimize time to fix
• Suggestions to repair

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Questions

• Minimize risk
• Which rout to take
• Link Reliability of the system given a
  terrorist attack
• How much more time is it going to take to get to
  destination
• Minimize the time, increase throughput
• Value of dissertation
• This will tell you how to get around accidents in
  time and efficient manner
• Create fluid
• Create situation where they do not get stuck in
  other jams
• Probability of accident increases on new route

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Questions

• Focus on mitigation
• How to mitigate time loss and improve throughput
• Alternate routes for final destination is least
  amount of time

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Outline

• Terms and Definitions
• Objective
• Brief Literature Review
• Research Significance
• The Systems Engineering (SE) Process

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Outline

• Network
• Ideas for Improving Algorithmic Model
  Efficiencies
• Validation and Verification
• Conclusion

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Non-Eventful Days Construction established and
on-going Mon Fri
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Example of Model
Time
Number of Vehicles traveling from Origin to
Destination during Off-Peak Period
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Example of Model Routing Assignment
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Example of Model Effects of Disconnect on Link
(a,b)
D Avg. T 2.5 Min/Veh
Time, Flow
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Research Significance

• Algorithm for finding efficiently the K Links
  with the greatest impact on the network

Accuracy Vs. Time
Accuracy
Minutes
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The Systems Engineering Process

• Metrics
• Performance of Network
• Travel Time
• Throughput
• Solution Processing Time of Model (as a
  function of OD table and network topology)

Model / Algorithm
(OD)
Time
Links
Accuracy
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Ideas for Improving Algorithmic Model Efficiencies

• Restricting the Search Space
• Find least reliable links
• Find largest/lightest flow
• Approximation Methods
• Quickly find Good solution

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Objective

• Two Objective Steps
• 1. Systems Engineering Approach
• 2. K Links with Highest Affect on Network

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