Snapshot of Virginia

1
Snapshot of Virginias GHG Activities Ensuring
Environmental Justice, Efficiency and Efficacy
When Developing Virginia's Response to Climate
Change Session V - Tuesday, October 16,2007,
Responses130 500 pm Climate Change GHG
Inventories Management Emerging Regulation and
Responses David W. Schnare, Esq. Ph.D., Senior
Energy and Environmental Fellow Thomas Jefferson
Institute for Public Policy
2
A Starting Point for Evaluation of Virginias
Energy Plan

• Assume global warming will cause catastrophic
  ocean level rise within decades.

• Recognize the inevitability of preventing this
  catastrophe through geo-engineering at minimal
  cost.

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• The First Three
• Catastrophic Events
• Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse
• West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse
• East Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt

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Time Scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet Destruction
300 1,000 years IPCC (2001) 100 300 years
Hansen (2005) IPCC (2007) 20 40 years Hansen
(2007) Flannery (2007)
If we have not already passed the dangerous
level, the energy infrastructure in place ensures
that we will pass it within decades not
centuries. James Hansen NASA (Aug. 2007)
We passed the tipping point in 2005 Tim
Flannery (Aus.) (Oct. 2007)
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• Greenland Ice Sheet will melt at 2ºC
• 2ºC Temperature rise at 440 ppm

• 2005 C02 levels 455 ppm

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The inevitability of geo-engineering
Preventing a planet wide meltdown is not a goal
that can be achieved with current energy
technology. We need to admit that and start
thinking about geo-engineering." Professor Marty
Hoffert, New York University.
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We need an alternative to the policy myopia that
sees emission reductions as the sole path to
climate change abatement. Jay Michaelson (JD
Yale) , 1998, GEOENGINEERING A CLIMATE CHANGE
MANHATTAN PROJECT, Stanford Environmental Law
Journal
8
Efforts by societies to restrain their greenhouse
gas emissions might be politically infeasible on
a global scale, or might fail. In this
eventuality, other options may be incapable of
countering the effects, and geo-engineering
strategies might be needed. National Academy of
Science Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming (1992)
9
The very best would be if emissions of the
greenhouse gases could be reduced so much that
the geo-engineering would not need to take place.
Currently, this looks like a pious
wish. Paul J. Crutzen, Nobel Laureate for his
work on the ozone hole
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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992 1.  Does it appear feasible that
engineered systems could actually mitigate the
effects of greenhouse gases?
YES
NAS 1992 Response -
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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992
2.  Does it appear that the proposed systems
might be carried out by feasible technical means
at reasonable costs?
YES
NAS 1992 Response -
12
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992
3.  Do the proposed systems have effects, besides
the sought-after effects, that might be adverse,
and can these be accepted or dealt with?
We Dont Know
NAS 1992 Response -
Caldeira 2006 -
Apparently no significant local climate changes,
and no harm from particles
13
Caldeira (Stanford U.) concluded that shading the
sunlight directly over the polar ice cap by less
than twenty-five percent would maintain the
"natural" level of ice in the Arctic, even with a
doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. By increasing
the shading to fifty percent, and the ice shelves
grow. Further, the restoration happens fast.
Within five years, the temperature would drop by
almost two degrees, stabilizing the ice, saving
the polar bears and the Inuit population, and
demonstrating the efficacy of planetary
engineering for 1/36th the amount appropriated
to assist in recovery of the hurricane flooding
disaster in New Orleans. Because the aerosols
are launched only over the Arctic, there is
little danger of directly impacting humans. As
well, the approach is incremental and can be
expanded or shut down at will so that temperature
effects dissipate within months, returning the
region to its "natural" state.
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The Relative Cost of GHG Reduction and
Geo-engineering
Marginal Cost per Carbon Ton Equivalent
GHG Reduction 1,400.
Geo-Engineering 0.02
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The Relative Cost of GHG Reduction and
Geo-engineering
Annual Per capita Cost (world population)
GHG Reduction 470.
Geo-Engineering (pv40) 0.003
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The economics of geo-engineering arethere is no
better word for itincredible. Scott Barrett,
Johns Hopkins The geo-engineering option may be
considered costless. William Nordhaus,
Yale Cost would not play any significant role in
a decision to deploy geo-engineering because
the cost of any such system is trivial compared
to the cost of other mitigation options. Prof.
D.W. Keith, University of Calgary
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With the inevitable use of geo-engineering to
prevent catastrophic ocean level rise understood,
Lets turn to some background on Environmental
Justice Only then can we examine what do we do
about greenhouse gas emissions?
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Who are Virginias Minorities and Poor?
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2007 HHS Poverty Guidelines
Persons In Family or Household Poverty Level
1 10,210
2 13,690
3 17,170
4 20,650
SOURCE  Federal Register, Vol. 72, No. 15,
January 24, 2007, pp. 31473148
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The Relative Cost of GHG Reduction and
Geo-engineering
Annual Per capita Cost (world population)
GHG Reduction 470.
Geo-Engineering (pv40) 0.003
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Environmental Justice Goal
No segment of the population, regardless of race,
color, national origin or economic status,
suffers disproportionately from adverse human
health or environmental effects, and all people
live in clean, healthy, and sustainable
communities.
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Environmental Justice Policies

• Ensure those who live with environmental
  decisions have every opportunity for
  participation in the making of those decisions.

• Craft regulations to ensure the distribution of
  human health, social, and economic impacts of
  rules and programs do not fall disproportionately
  on minorities and the poor.

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Practical Environmental Justice - I -

• When developing regulatory alternatives, conduct
  and publish for public comment Environmental
  justice assessments comprehensive analyses of
  the potential disproportionately high and adverse
  impacts arising from a proposed activity that
  will fall upon minorities and the poor.

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Practical Environmental Justice - II -

• Balance social programs to ensure sustainability
  of the community, the culture and the
  civilization.

• Do not impose impacts whose costs make the
  benefits of the action irrelevant.

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Practical Environmental Justice - III -

• Do not allow adverse environmental impacts to
  fall disproportionately on those least able to
  respond.

• Impose only affordable costs, in the context of
  all social needs.

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Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan
Overall Score -- ????? The Plan is practical,
realistic, fair, economic and honest. It
accounts for those who most need environmental
justice while addressing the public concern about
global warming. If fails to the degree that it
poses as a solution to global warming.
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Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan
Affected People Participation -- ????? Only
2 of 35 represented the people directly affected
by the plan. There were several environmental
organizations, but their interests conflict with
the pocket book interests of the poor.
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Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Proportionality of
• Impacts -- ?????
• Low-income weatherization assistance
• Fraud protection
• Increase consumer education

34
Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Cost-efficiency and
• Affordability -- ?????
• Industry-implemented efficiency/
  conservation/demand management (cost-efficiency
  required)
• Objective validation of efforts

35
Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Reliance on Market and
• Market-based Incentives -- ?????
• Expanded Energy Star approach that shows energy
  use of products
• Education and promotion of voluntary, rather than
  regulatory programs.

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Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Environmental Justice
• Evaluations -- ?????
• Any portfolio of electric energy conservation
  activities should be evaluated for cost
  effectiveness. Virginia should use a mix of the
  Total Resource Cost Test, Societal Test,
  Utility/Program Administrator Test, Participant
  Test, and Rate Impact Measure Test.

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Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Balancing of
• Social Programs -- ?????
• Increase tax-benefits for consumer investments in
  energy efficiency contingent on acceptable
  revenue impact.

38
Evaluation of the Virginia Energy Plan

• Why Not Five Stars?
• Transit oriented development doesnt actually
  work.
• Higher density for LEED projects transportation
  effects not included, and competitive programs.
• Conservation easements has nothing to do with
  energy and increased density in wrong place.
• Subsidize tipping fees for waste to energy
  projects these should pay for themselves.
• Hybrids on HOV work best at lowest speeds.

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Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Rating ?????
• A mixture of cost-effectiveness and green-washing
  with good management diluted by political
  correctness.

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Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Aggressively pursue
• all energy-savings activities whose costs are
  recoverable in one fiscal year, such as use of
  screw-in fluorescent and other high-efficiency
  lighting in place of incandescent bulbs and other
  less efficient lights

Rating ?????
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Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Aggressively pursue
• Renovations of existing buildings consistent with
  LEED (including the use of Virginia forest
  products with alternate certifications)

Rating ????? (Only if cost-effective)
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Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Actively Pursue
• Energy Star requirements

Rating ?????
43
Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Aggressively pursue
• Purchases of renewable energy.

Rating ????? (Only if cost-effective)
44
Evaluation of Executive Order 48 (2007)

• Actively Pursue
• Every Agency Energy Manager for an agency or
  institution with energy costs exceeding 1
  million shall be certified as an energy manager
  by the Association of Energy Engineers by June
  30, 2008.

Rating ?????
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Snapshot of Virginias GHG Activities Ensuring
Environmental Justice, Efficiency and Efficacy
When Developing Virginia's Response to Climate
Change Session V - Tuesday, October 16,2007,
Responses130 500 pm Climate Change GHG
Inventories Management Emerging Regulation and
Responses David W. Schnare, Esq. Ph.D., Senior
Energy and Environmental Fellow Thomas Jefferson
Institute for Public Policy
46
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