The Modeling and Forcings of Global Precipitation

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The Modeling and Forcings of Global Precipitation

• By Miriam Fogel
• Mentor Drew Shindell

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Forcings
Key Red All Forcings Blue well-mixed
greenhouse gases Green Solar Irradiance Orange
Troposphere Aerosols Light Blue Indirect
Troposphere Aerosols
1880-2000 Forcings Effects on Precipitation

• GHG have the largest effect (aerosols cancel)
• Indirect aerosols impact around the equator and
  N. Hemisphere
• All Forcings line is roughly all others combined
  (some not included)

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Model vs. Observation
Observation 1901-2000

• Major changes in last 30 years for model, no
  ocean for observation
• Observation has larger increase in precipitation
  overall
• Perhaps too many aerosols in model
• Especially Sahara getting dryer - crucial

Model 1970-2000
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Future Research

• Adjust models for higher accuracy
• Use models for predicting the future
• Aid and warning
• Forcings show what may need to be changed
• How humans affect the environment and
  precipitation by emissions

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References and Acknowledgments

• Graphs made in Panoply
• Thanks to Dr. Drew Shindell, mentor
• Thanks to everyone at NASA GISS NYCRI