Future Directions

1
NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP) for C2
Assessment
3
Problem Formulation
Sponsor Problem
4
Solution Strategy
6
Human Organisational Issues
Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10 David S.
Alberts Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense for Networks and Information Integration
(OASD/NI2)
5
Measures of Merit (MoM)
7
Scenarios
8
Methods Tools
Products
11
9
Data
10
Assess Risk
2
Risk and Uncertainty
Prepare for Success
3
Problem
Problem
Formulation
Formulation
Sponsor
Sponsor
Problem
Problem
4
Solution
Solution
Strategy
Strategy
6
Human
Human
Organizational
Organizational
Issues
Issues
5
Measures of
Measures of
7
Scenarios
Scenarios
Merit (
Merit (
MoM
MoM
)
)
8
Models
Methods
Tools
Tools
11
9
Products
Products
Data
Data
10
Assess
Assess
Risk
Risk
3
Agenda

• Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty
• Types of Risks and Uncertainties
• Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

4
Definitions

• Risk
• Possibility of suffering a loss
• Actual
• Opportunity
• Uncertainty
• Inability to determine
• Value of a variable
• A future state
• Probability
• Unknowns

All risks involve uncertainties
5
Types of Risks and Uncertainties

• Assessment
• Related to the conduct of the assessment
• Decision or Operational
• Related to taking decision(s) or action(s) that
  the assessment is meant to inform

Not all risks and/or uncertainties can be
eliminated
6
Examples of Uncertainties in C2 Assessments

• The right question
• Assumptions
• Appropriate set of scenarios
• Sources of data
• Correctness of data
• Limits of models and simulations
• Appropriate solution approaches
• Stakeholder perceptions and predispositions
• Schedule and cost
• And lots more..

7
C2 and Decisionmaking

• Decisionmaking is at the heart of C2
• Individual, team, organizational, adversarial,
  etc.
• We lack an adequate understanding of
  decisionmaking and related processes
• Perceptions
• Styles
• Cultural influences
• Relationships to information quality and
  misinformation
• These factors are inadequately represented in MS
  tools

Ignoring these only increases risks and/or
uncertainties
8
Assessment Risks and Uncertainties

• Assessments should be judged by their ability to
  inform that is by reduction in risk and
  uncertainty
• Identifying key considerations
• Fact finding
• Analysis
• Hence, the major assessment risk is failing to do
  so a failure to inform
• Failure to deliver the assessment in a timely
  manner
• Missing key considerations
• Inadequate fact finding
• Poor or incomplete analysis
• Failure to properly communicate findings and
  conclusions

9
Decision/Action Risks andUncertainties

• Decision/Actions are attended by risks associated
  with
• Fog and friction of war (and operations other
  than war)
• Adversary actions or reactions
• Environment (including other parties)
• Unintended consequences
• Hence, major decision/action risk include
• Misunderstanding of situation (including command
  intent)
• Failure to consider full range of options
• Failure to understand the full range of
  (cascading) effects associated with various
  options
• Failure to make a decision / take an action at
  the appropriate time

10
Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties

• Reducing Uncertainties
• Identify and treat uncertainties explicitly
• Focus on the most consequential of the
  uncertainties
• Seek to be informed from multiple sources
• Perform sensitivity analyses
• Mitigating Risks
• Identify and treat risks explicitly
• Scrub assumptions
• Following the COBP will help reduce risks
• Risk analyses
• Risk register
• Develop contingencies
• Develop agility
• Contingency planning

Communicating risks and uncertainties is essential