Meeting of BRICS Economic Research Group

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Meeting of BRICS Economic Research Group

• Chinas Economy
• WANG Tongsan
• Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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• World Economy

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Forecasts for the World Economy China
World Economy Chinas Economy
2012 2013 2012 2013
WB 2.5 3.1 8.4 8.3
IMF 3.3 3.9 8.2 8.8
UN 2.6 3.2 8.7
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More coordinated stimulus, not less, is needed
to move out of jobs crisis
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UN Forecasts (in2011)
US Japan EU-15 New EU
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UN Forecasts (in 2012)
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• Chinas Economy

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GDP(annual growth rate)
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GDP(quarterly growth rate)
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Three worries on Chinas economy

• 1. Double dip ?
• 2. Hard landing ?
• 3. Stagflation ?

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Double Dip ?
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• Double Dip Recession ?
• Not quite possible.

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Hard Landing ?
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• Hard Landing ?
• Almost impossible

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Stagflation ?
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Stagflation ?
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Inflation still is a problem
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• Stagflation ?
• No stagnation
• Inflation pressure would be decreased
• BUT still is a problem

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Inflation still is a problem

• 1. Imported Inflation Factors
• A. US Quantitative Easy Policy due to Weak
  recovery.
• B. Eurozone Expanded Policies due to Debt
  Crisis.
• C. Potential War.

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Inflation still is a problem

• 2. Cost Push Pressure
• Labor costs
• Weak agriculture low rural residents income
• C. Lands prices

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• Impacts of External Economic Environment on
  Chinas Economy

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• 1. External Demands /Export Decreased due to
  World Trade Moderating Notably .
• 2. Stability of Financial System Threatened due
  to Crises in US Eurozone.
• 3. Imported Inflation Pressure.

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• THANKS