Strategic Politicians

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Strategic Politicians
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Number of House seats held by Presidents party,
1936-2004
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Strategic Calculus

• Overall benefit of running for a new office is
  equal to the difference between the value to the
  officeholder of her current office in interaction
  with the probability of keeping her current
  office and the risks (likelihood of winning,
  costs of campaign, opportunity costs of losing
  current office) of running for a new office.
• U(PB) - R

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Challengers to incumbents (J K Table 3.2)
Democrats percent of experienced candidates Republicans percent of experienced candidates
1972 21 22
1974 38 13
1976 29 17
1978 25 16
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Number of candidates in House and Senate Primary
Races, 2002
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Two other arguments

• Strategic Resources
• Strategic Retirement

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Explaining national midterm election outcomes

• Referendum on the president
• Reversion to party id
• Response to economy and job approval
• Strategic politicians