Managing Flash Floods

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Managing Flash Floods

• Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective

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Introductions

• Who is here
• Why we are here
• We all share a common interest in reducing losses
  to life and property from flash floods
• What to expect from this meeting
• Overview of proposed risk perception research
  project
• Discussion How to make this information useful
  and practical for implementation

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CLIMAS
AFMA, NWS, ADEM, FCDs, etc.
Forging the partnership
Fieldwork surveys and analysis
Present findings, feedback, brainstorming
Develop new products
Implement new products
Ashley Coless masters thesis
Final report
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Effective warnings must be

• Heard
• Understood
• What is happening, time, how to prepare
• Believed
• Warning is true, danger is imminent
• Personalized
• Risk to self or property is perceived
• Responded to

Mileti, 1995
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Risk perception researchTypical approaches

• There is an appropriate response, anything else
  is irrational
• Behavior as a result of individual psychological
  (dis?)function
• Behavior as a result of human nature
• People need more education and information
• More recently and frequently, studies are
  beginning to account for the effects of cultural
  and social contexts

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What is culture?

• A way of life learned from and shared by a social
  unit
• Attitudes, beliefs, values, and habits
• Not just national, also gender, ethnicity,
  religion, cohort or generation, historical
  period, profession, social class, and country of
  origin (Kitayama Markus, 1995, p. 368)
• Norms, values, and practices shape how
  individuals process information and make
  decisions

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(No Transcript)
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Main cultural factors

• Trust
• In science, government, and responsible agency
• Self-efficacy
• How confident people feel in their ability to
  handle ordinary life as well as extreme events
• Social incorporation
• Extent of social networks
• Social amplification of risk
• Social autonomy
• Degree of freedom to fill any social role
• Time orientation
• Focus on past, present, or future

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Mary Douglas Risk and Blame
Individualist/Market
Sect/Enclave
Autonomy ?
Isolate
Hierarchy/Bureaucracy
Incorporation ?
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But its more complicated
Hazard information
Gender Trust Age Self-efficacy Ethnicity
Incorporation Socioeconomic Autonomy Etc. Time
orientation
Risk Perception
Behavior
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Implications for mitigation

• Can education and information are likely to
  change attitudes, values, and beliefs?
• Risk managers must speak to these attitudes,
  values, and beliefs
• Which means that managers must know the people
  they are responsible for protecting

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Why use a survey?

• Can perform both quantitative and qualitative
  analyses on the data
• Quantitative regression analysis
• Qualitative open-ended questions for deeper
  insight
• Able to reach a broad spectrum of various
  cultural groups

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Who is the target sample?

• People who have crossed flooded washes
• Problematic because of death, stigma, and number
  of successful crossings
• 1000 Tucson residents in flood prone areas
• Specific neighborhoods with proximity to commonly
  flooded intersections or crossings

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Plan to increase response rate

• Week 1 First survey packet mailed out
• Survey in English and Spanish
• Consent forms
• Reply-paid envelope
• Week 2 Reminder Postcard
• Week 3 Second survey packet mailed out
• Offer drawing for 20 Visa Gift Card
• Reduce effects of stigma

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What does the survey ask?

• Using direct and indirect methods
• Cultural factors
• Historical and hypothetical behavior
• Relevant demographic information

Compared to the average person, I am a good judge
of whether flood waters are dangerous. Complete
ly Somewhat Neutral Somewhat Completely Disagree
Disagree Agree Agree
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What do you think?

• Is this potentially useful for your flood
  mitigation decision-making?
• Do you have the desire and ability to implement
  new mitigation strategies based on these
  findings?
• What information would you like to gather with
  the survey tool?