Floods : The Awesome Power

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Floods The Awesome Power
Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D. Research
Hydrometeorolrogist NOAA/OAR National Severe
Storms Laboratory
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How Is A Flood Defined?
Websters Dictionary
Etymology Middle English, from Old English flOd
akin to Old High German fluot flood, Old English
flOwan to flow
1 a A rising and overflowing of a body of water
especially onto normally dry land also a
condition of overflowing b
capitalized a flood described in the Bible as
covering the earth in the time of Noah2 The
flowing in of the tide3 An overwhelming
quantity or volume also a state of abundant
flow or volume
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER
26, 2002 Operations and Services Hydrologic
Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water
which causes or threatens damage.
How Is A Flash Flood Defined?
Websters Dictionary
A local flood of great volume and short duration
generally resulting from heavy rainfall in the
immediate vicinity
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER
26, 2002 Operations and Services Hydrologic
Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
A flood which occurs within six hours or less of
the causative event. In some parts of the Nation,
the actual time threshold for an event to be
considered a flash flood may be less than six
hours.
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How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash
Flood?
Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to
onset of flooding
Common Flash Flood Producers Heavy Localized
Rainfall Dam or Levee Failure Sudden Release
of Water held by an Ice Jam or Debris Flow
Common Flood Producers Regional Excessive
Rainfall Mainstem Seasonal River System
Flooding
Severe Local Storms
Large-Scale Circulation Patterns
Individual Thunderstorm
Repeated Occurrences of Convective Complexes
Increasing Spatial Coverage
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Floods- An International Perspective
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Number of Great Natural Catastrophes 1950-2006
UN Definition The region affected requires
supraregional or international assistance This
is the case for events when there are thousands
of fatalities, when hundreds of thousands of
people are left homeless, or when overall losses
and/or insured losses are of exceptional
proportions
Trend Line
http//www.munichre.com/publications/302-05217_en.
pdf?rdm28513
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Top Ten Natural Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic
Losses)
6 of the 10 Events Affected U.S.
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Worldwide Flood Events 2005 100-110 Events
(Flood and Flash Flood) 4,240 Fatalities Over 16
Billion in Losses
Reference Munich Re, Topics Geo 2005
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Top Ten Flood Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic
Losses)
Notable 2004 Flooding Events which are not
mentioned in economic loss table
May- Haiti and Dominican Republic
2000 people died due to flood waters and
mudslides
June August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh,
India, and Nepal
Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for
most of the time
2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss
June-September China River Floods
Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed
1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8
billion dollars
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United States Flood Fatalities and Economic
Impacts
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What Storm-Related Hazard is responsible for the
highest number of fatalities in the United
States?
a. Lightning
b. Tornadoes
c. Heavy Rainfall/ Flooding
d. High Winds
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2004 Fatality Summary - 82 Flood , 34 Tornado,
34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6
Heat
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30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood 107,
Lightning 64, Tornado 54, Hurricane 15
10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood 88,
Lightning 49, Tornado 57, Hurricane 21
Flood Fatality Information from NWS Hydrologic
Information Center
Other Hazard Fatality Information from NWS
Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics
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With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations
as outlined in
Pielke, Jr., R.A., M.W. Downton, and J.Z. Barnard
Miller, 2002 Flood Damage in the United States,
1926-2000 A Reanalysis of National Weather
Service Estimates. Boulder, CO UCAR.
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National Flood Insurance Program FEMA Web Page
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Flood types production methods on multiple time
and space scales
Flash Floods Weather Produced Individual
Storm-Quick-Burst Rainfall Weather/Human
Factors Ice Jam/Debris Flows Human Factor
Dam Failures Landfalling Systems with
Oceanic/Tropical Origins Weather Produced
Organized Storm Complex Tropical
Systems/NorEasters Regional Floods Multiple
Storm Complexes reoccurring for weeks Prolonged
Regional River System Flooding
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Flash Flood Significant Events
June 14, 1990 Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)
3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On
Saturated Soils
Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since
1980
15-20 Foot Wall of Water
26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles
Downstream At he Hannibal Locks and Dam on the
Ohio River
80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million
Dollars in Damage
July 31, 1976 Big Thompson Canyon Flood,
Colorado (Evening)
8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour
139 People with 30 Million Dollars of Damage
Impacts Multiplier Time of Day Peoples
Access to Info
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Ice Jams (From US Corps of Engineers Data and Web
Pages)
The rates of water level rise can vary from feet
per minute to feet per hour during ice jam
flooding. In some instances, communities have
many hours of lead time between the time an ice
jam forms and the start of flooding. In other
cases, the lead time is a little as one hour.
For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed
at 700 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 800 a.m. the
downtown area was flooded (Figure 2-3). During
the next 11 hours, the business district was
covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5
ft) of water. The event occurred so quickly that
there was not sufficient time to warn residents
so they could protect their goods. Even after
water levels dropped, damage related to the
flooding continued as cold temperatures caused
freezeup of wet objects. Damages of less than one
day were estimated at 5 million (FEMA 1992b).
Ice Jam DatabaseUS Army, ERDC, CRREL-Ice
Engineering Group72 Lyme RoadHanover, NH
03755 Phone [phone]Fax
603-646-4477E-mail kwhite_at_crrel.usace.army.mil
Israel River, Lancaster, NH
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Damages of less than one day were estimated at 5
million (FEMA 1992b)
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Dam Breaks
June 1, 1889 Johnstown, Pennsylvania
20 Million Tons of Water Released
Official City Records list 2,207 dead but
witnesses claim more
March 12, 1928 St Francisquito Canyon,
California
William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke
at three minutes before midnight on March 12,
1928, sending a 180-foot-high wall of water
crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and
claiming approximately 470 lives by the time the
floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.
The piano keyboard in the foreground of this
photograph is an eerie reminder of the families
that were caught unawares in the middle of that
fateful night. The flood was the second-worst
disaster in California
history, second only to the San Francisco
earthquake and fire of 1906
Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley
toward the Pacific Ocean, about 54 miles away. 65
miles of valley was devastated before the water
finally made its way into the ocean between
Oxnard and Ventura. At its peak the wall of
water was said to be 78 feet high by the time it
hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the
water was estimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost
everything in its path was destroyed livestock,
structures, railways, bridges, livestock, and
orchards. By the time it was over, parts of
Ventura County lay under 70 feet of mud and
debris. Over 500 people were killed and damage
estimates topped 20 million. ((www.USC.EDU)
http//www.damsafety.org/
www.scvhistory.com
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November 1977 at 130 AM- Kelly Barnes Dam (Rock
Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Dam Failure
40 People Died (Almost 50 percent Children)
In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking
sections of timber or concrete, forming cells
which are filled with earth or broken rock.
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In a study from 1970 to 1999, freshwater flooding
accounted for more than half (59) of U.S.
tropical cyclone deaths. These floods are why 63
of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths during that
period occurred in inland counties. At least
23 of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths occur to
people who drown in, or attempting to abandon,
their cars. 78 of children killed by tropical
cyclones drowned in freshwater floods.
Rappaport, E. Loss of Life In The United States
Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical
Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.
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Hurricane Isabel- September, 2003
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Hurricane Isabel Rainfall Approx 3 inches in
Headwaters (OXFO) 6 to 7 inches from Midsection
to Mouth
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Movement of Flood Wave Downstream
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Inland Flooding Evacuate and Turn Around Dont
Drown
Hurricane Floyd (1999) Intense rains and record
flooding to the Eastern U.S. Of the 56 people
who perished, 50 drowned due to inland flooding.
Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) Drifted over
the Southeast United States and produced
torrential rainfall. More than 21 inches of rain
fell at Americus Georgia. Thirty-three people
drowned. Damages exceeded 750 million.
Tropical Storm Claudette (1979) Produced 45
inches of rain to an area near Alvin, Texas,
contributing to more than 600 million in
damages. Hurricane Agnes (1972) Produced
floods in the Northeast United States which
contributed to 122 deaths and 6.4 billion in
damages. Hurricane Diane (1955) Brought
inland flooding to Pennsylvania, New York, and
New England contributing to nearly 200 deaths
and 4.2 billion in damages.
Hurricane Floyd NASA
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October-November 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)
Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events
31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data) - CDC Web Page 29
Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high
water
Approximately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion in damage
Number of Paid FEMA Losses 4,678
Total FEMA Claims Paid 76,257,393 (16,301 per
claim)
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http//floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.
pdf
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Northern Plains Flooding April/May 1997
(Snowmelt and Icepack Buildup)
11 deaths
NCDC Storm Data Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted
to 2002) billion in damage/costs
FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses 7,272
FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid 158,401,726 Dollars
(21,782 per claim)
These conditions resulted from a series of major
cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from
September 1996 to April 1997. During this period
more than 200 of normal snowfall was observed
over most of North Dakota, western Minnesota and
northeastern South Dakota, with 125-200 of
normal snow covering the remainder of the upper
Midwest, the northern Plains, Montana and most of
Wyoming
The important factors that set the stage for
potential significant flooding of the Red River
and its tributaries during April 1997 Greatly
enhanced snowfall during the winter Substantial
buildup of river ice throughout the northern half
of the Red River. A highly unfavorable
March-April 1997 thaw in the Red River Basin
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Where Can You Receive River Forecasts and Flood
Information?
http//www.weather.gov/ahps/
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Forecast Dissemination and Data Delivery
Organizational Structure
NCEP Facilities
National Weather Service Headquarters
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
Produces gridded and probabilistic QPF with
other hydromet products on a national basis.
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing
Center
Office of Climate, Weather, Water, and Weather
Services (OCCWS) Divisions
Environmental Monitoring Center (EMC) Develops,
maintains, and improves atmospheric models used
in short/medium term AHPS products
Office of Hydrologic Development
(13) NWS River Forecast Centers
Develops and maintains Hydrologic/
Hydrometeorologic models, systems and procedures
to meet requirements set by OCCWS HSD
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Products define
how precipitation deviates from climatic norms
for the long-term forecast period
Produces mainstem river flood forecasts and
warnings Provides precipitation QA/QC Hydrologic
Model Development and Maintenance
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Event-based,
short-term precipitation rate forecasts
Maintains the Hydrometeorological Automated Data
System (HADS)
Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Produces
forecasts for tropical weather systems
Office of Operational Systems
(122) NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO)
Office of Science and Technology
NWS Regional Headquarters
Produces flash flood and selected river flood
forecasts and warnings Provides precipitation
forecasts Service Hydrologist is public and
partner interface for hydrologic observation
network
The Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) within
OST develops WFO applications used to produce
selected watch/warning/advisory products
Responsible for full spectrum of hydrologic
program data delivery, product generation,
service assessment, and product improvement
Regional Director is first-line supervisor of
regional hydrologic division chief, RFC
Hydrologists In Charge (HIC), and WFO
Meteorologists In Charge (MIC). Assigns hydrology
program responsibilities of the region
MDL supports MOS software which provides
temperature forecast guidance used as input to
RFC hydrologic models
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For the U.S., the 13 River Forecast Centers (RFC)
prepare mainstem river forecast and warning
products

• The WFOs
• Produce flash flood watches and warnings
• Disseminate the RFC river products for their
  respective Hydrologic Service Area
• Coordinate the hydrologic observing network with
  local partners and agencies (USGS, Corps of
  Engineers,etc.)

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Extended Streamflow, Flood and Precipitation
Outlooks (Situational Awareness)
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
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FGUS74 KSHV 091806 ESFSHV ARC027-057-061-073-081
-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-
043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089
-TXC005-037-063- 067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-3
65-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459- 499-102359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SHREVEPORT LA 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2007
...ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SPRING... IN THE WAKE OF THE WET DECEMBER OF
2006 AND JANUARY OF 2007 THAT RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT MINOR FLOODING...HYDROLOGIC
CONDITIONS DRIED MARKEDLY DURING FEBRUARY AND
THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THIS MARCH. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ENDED DURING JANUARY AS THE BOUNTIFUL
RAINS REFILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS AND BROUGHT
RIVERS AND BAYOUS TO SEASONABLE STAGES AND
DISCHARGES. ALL RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL
STAGES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS RECEDED
MARKEDLY DURING A DRIER THAN USUAL FEBRUARY WITH
VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
THIS MARCH. STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ACROSS THE
SHREVEPORT HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) RECEDED
TO NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF
FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH
THIS FIRST THIRD OF MARCH. SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRY DURING FEBRUARY AND
THIS MARCH WITH INCIPIENT DROUGHT (CLASS D0 ON
THE INTERNET DROUGHT MONITOR) ONCE AGAIN KNOCKING
ON OUR CLIMATE DOOR WITH THIS PAST WEEKS
ISSUANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FORECAST
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RECHARGE
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD
SPREAD SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
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http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)- Day 1
For a 24 Hour Period ending either 12 UTC or 00
UTC
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Watches
http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgusa.gif
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• WGUS66 KSEW 122350
• FFASEW
• URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
• FLOOD WATCH
• NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
• 450 PM PDT MON MAR 12 2007
• WAC033-045-053-057-061-073-130800-
  /O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-070313T1300Z/
  /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z
  .OO/
• KING-MASON-PIERCE-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-WHATCOM-
• 450 PM PDT MON MAR 12 2007
• ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
  TONIGHT...
• THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
• PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL
  WASHINGTON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... SKAGIT AND
  WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...KING...
  MASON...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH
• THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

Area affected
Time frames
Conditions
Extent of hazardous conditions possible
Potential severity
Call-to-action statement
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Statements
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Advisories/Warnings
WGUS43 KDVN 130130 FLWDVN BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE
BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 830 PM CDT MON
MAR 12 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS...ROCK RIVER...IN
ILLINOIS... AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS...HENRY...ROCK ISLAND... WHITESIDE AN
ICE JAM CAUSED WATER LEVELS ON THE ROCK RIVER
UPSTREAM OF THE HIGHWAY 84 BRIDGE RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THIS ICE JAM HAS NOW
BROKEN...BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO RECEDE. THUS...A FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCK RIVER AT
JOSLIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES (ALL LOWER CASE).
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WGUS44 KEWX 121939 FLWEWX TXC021-130554-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD
WARNING...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 240 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST
OF EGLIN... THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF
EGLIN... AT NOON MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET.
MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST.
FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. FORECAST...RISE TO
AROUND 18.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. AT 16.0 FEET
MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING CAN CUT OFF AND DROWN
LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD PLAIN. LOWEST ROADS AND
BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CHANGE
RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.
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Discussions
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Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education
Programs
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Flood Fatalities
All vehicle-related fatalities are shown in red. 
http//www.weather.gov/oh/hic/flood_stats/recent_i
ndividual_deaths.shtml
Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and
typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.For
each foot water rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force
are applied to the car.But the biggest factor
is BUOYANCY For each foot that water rises up
the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs.
of water
Two feet of water will carry away most
automobiles
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http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/
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HYDROMETEOROLOGY VISION
Wind Gusts50kts
Hail2 in.
Flash Flooding
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FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos
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With proven technologies and emerging science we
can achieve an Integrated Water Prediction and
Management Systemits time is nowits too late
for later
Thank You. Now any Questions and Comments
Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D. NOAA/NSSL Research
Hydrometeorologist Suzanne.Van.Cooten_at_noaa.gov (40
5) 325-6477