Enter Climate Change

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Enter Climate Change

• Climate Change Cooperation

Source NASA
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The ProblemHuman Induced Increase in GHG
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The Increase in CO2 is Not Uncertain
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Effect on Global Mean Temperature
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The Science

• Svante Arrhenius (1896) doubling of CO2 -gt
  increase by 5C
• Transnational scientific collaboration
  1970s-1980s
• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  1988 by WMO and UNEP

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IPCC

• Doubling of CO2
• 1.4-5C t increase

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Sources of Scientific Uncertainty

• Sulfate aerosol cooling effect
• Ocean absorption capacity
• Clouds cooling or warming effect
• Non-linear effect shutdown of the circulation
  of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)?

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The Actors
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(No Transcript)
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The Breakthrough

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio
  1992)
• 189 countries joined
• Common but differentiated responsibility
• Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable
• Reporting requirement
• GEF Main funding mechanism

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COP at Kyoto

• Lead actors EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane
  from 1990 levels
• Transition economies Emissions considerably
  (30) below 1990 levels -gthot air.
• US Position stabilization of all gases at 1990
  levels and emissions trading to offset costs,
  differential targets, participation of developing
  countries
• Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland
• Developing countries industrialized countries
  should take the lead

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The Kyoto Protocol

• Emission reduction targets for industrialized
  countries (Annex I countries)
• -total emissions -5.2 of 1992 by 2008-2012
• -national ceilings
• -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane,
  nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur
  hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to
  translate to C02 equivalent.
• No targets for developing countries
• Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean
  Development Mechanism (CDM)

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COP Bonn and Marrakech

• Implementation of flexible mechanisms
• Forest sinks countries can receive credits for
  carbon sinks (forests)
• Enforcement mechanisms

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Flexible Mechanisms

• Emissions trading
• Countries with binding emissions trade
• Joint Implementations
• Country with binding target receives emission
  credits for emission abatement projects in
  another country with a binding target
• Clean Development Mechanism
• Countries with targets receive credits for
  abatement projects in developing countries 2
  tax for adaptation

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Entry into Force

• 55 ratifications
• 55 of Annex I emissions

http//unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html
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Two Views on Kyoto

• Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful
  step in the right direction?

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Kyoto Protocol Controversies

• Hot air
• Non-participation
• Leakage
• Measuring additionally in JI and CDM
• Enforcement
• paper trades
• Non-compliance
• Exit

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Current Developments

• Russia ratified 2005
• EU carbon emissions trading projected started
  January/February 2005
• National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out
  of estimated 12,000 large emitters)
• Approval of national emission plans
• Trade in emission allowances
• COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005
• COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.