The Future of Electricity

1
The Future of Electricity

• Analyzing the Next Decade
• of Ontarios Power Generation

2
The Future of Electricity
or

• Analyzing the Next Decade
• of Ontarios Power Generation

3
Background
Ontario is facing a possible electricity
shortfall

• Coal phase-out
• Increased demand
• Lack of new sources

4
Background
5
Supply Distribution
6
Supply Distribution

• On average, coal-fired generation plants have the
  second highest electricity capacity
• 14 hydroelectric power plants 1 coal-fired
  plant
• Closure of five coal-fired plants leaves
  electricity deficit

7
Electricity Importation

• Ontario imports U.S. electricity when additional
  supply is required
• Histogram shows how many times per month imports
  gt 2,500 MW were required
• Binomial Distribution

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Electricity Importation

• Predict How many days per month will imports
  exceed 2,500 MW?
• B.P.D. equation used to create graph
• Expected Value E(X) np
  2.43 days/month

9
Demand Forecast

• Points represent Ontarios peak demand since 1987
• Least squares line and standard deviation lines
  represent increase
• Peak demand in 2015 25,150 - 27,800 MW
  (possible 2,800 MW from today)

10
Peak Demand

• Average peak demand (2005) has increased 2,400 MW
  since 2002
• Standard deviation lines in 2005 are spread
  further from mean (peak demand is more dispersed
  and unpredictable)
• Peak demand exceeds mean more frequently in 2005
  (15) than in 2002 (13)

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Changing Trends

• Winter demand has been traditionally higher than
  summer demand
• This trend is predicted to change in 2007-08
• Extreme weather can drastically impact
  electricity demand (possible 3,000 MW annual
  increase)

12
Top 20

• Graph illustrates top 20 demand days in Ontarios
  history
• All 20 have occurred since 2002
• 13 out of the 20 have occurred since June 2005

13
Supply vs. Demand

• Concept of supply and demand
• Supply meets demand until 2013
• Green represents the difference between supply
  and demand

14
Supply vs. Demand

• Green represents the difference between supply
  and demand
• Past 2013, Ontario requires more electricity than
  it produces

15
Conclusion

• Impact of coal-fired closures and inadequate
  replacement strategies
• Peak electrical demand has consistently been
  higher than ever in recent months
• OPA Report describes reasons for electricity
  shortfall

16
Works Cited