National Weather Service

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National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasting
Applications
by Robert Jubach robert.jubach_at_noaa.gov 301-713-01
30 x124
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Outline of Presentation

• National Weather Service River Forecast System
  (NWSRFS) Overview and Capabilities
• Applications
• Domestic United States
• International

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)
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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• NWSRFS Capabilities
• Increased Accuracy and Longer Lead Times for
  Flood Forecasting and Warning Hours to Days to
  Months in Advance
• Increased Accuracy and Longer Lead Times for
  Flash Flood Forecasting and Warning
• Improved Decision-making for Floods and Droughts
• Improved Flood Warning Information Dissemination
  to the Public

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• NWSRFS Capabilities (cont)
• Capability to Incorporate Estimated Rainfall
  Using Remote Sensing Techniques into Hydrologic
  Forecasting
• Forecasts the Consequences of Large Reservoir
  Releases or Dam Failure
• Integrate with Reservoir Decision Support Tools
  Balance Flood Control, Hydroelectric Power,
  Irrigation, Environmental Needs
• Enhanced Information Dissemination Via User
  Friendly Products

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)
H-P Workstation (UNIX)
PC (Windows or Linux)
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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• Domestic Applications
• NWS is the Official Agency for Flood Warnings in
  U.S.
• NWSRFS is Forecast Tool for all Major U.S. Rivers
• 13 River Forecast Centers in the U.S. Apply
  NWSRFS
• 20 Years of Operational Experience with NWSRFS

RIVER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PITTSBURGH PA 1057 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2001 DAILY
RIVER FORECASTS PAST 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION...
THERE WAS NONE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIVER TRENDS... LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN STABLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLD OBSERVED
FORECAST 7AM LOCATION STG STG 7PM WED THU FRI
OHIO RIVER PITTSBURGH 25 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7
DASHIELDS L/D 25 13.5
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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• International Applications
• Mexico (4)
• China (River Huai)
• Central America
• Nicaragua (2)
• Transnational
• Aral Sea Drainage (7)

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• Republic of South Africa (Vaal River Vaal Dam
  and Bloemhof Dam Catchments) Expand to Orange
  River

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• Mozambique February/March 2000 Extreme Flooding
  Event
• NWS CPC Provided Daily Rainfall and Tropical
  Weather Forecasts
• NWS OHD Quickly Applied NWSRFS to the Save and
  Limpopo Rivers Analyzed Impacts of Potential
  Releases From Cariba and Cahora Bassa Dams on the
  Zambezi River
• NWS Weather and Water Forecasts Produced 7 Days a
  Week and Posted on a NOAA Web Site

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National Weather Service River Forecast System
(NWSRFS)

• NWS Support
• Software is Free Costs are Calibration and
  Initialization
• Free Upgrades as They Become Available
• A Great Deal of Operational Experience Proven
  System
• International Users Group for Support Share
  Experiences and Problems, Technical Discussions
  Next Meeting 11-13 December 2001 in Washington