National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001

1
NOAAs Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) Meeting Americas Water Forecast and
Warning Information Needs
Thomas Graziano Chief, Hydrologic Services
Branch Office of Climate, Water and
Weather National Weather Service March 2, 2004
Providing hydrologic forecasts and warnings for
the protection of life and property and the
enhancement of the national economy
2
Socioeconomic Impacts
Average Annual Deaths (1990-99) 502
Average Annual Damages (1990-99) 13.1 Billion
4.97
Hurricane
5.60
Flood
0.47
0.87
0.69
0.44
0.03
0.06
3
Program Overview

• Provide enhanced water availability and flood
  warning information by leveraging NOAAs
  infrastructure and expertise
• Modernize services through infusion of new
• science and technology
• - Flash-flood to seasonal freshwater forecasts
• - Quantification of forecast certainty
• - More accurate and timely forecasts and
  warnings
• - Flood-forecast area mapping
• - Visually-oriented products
• Provide consistent access to standardized
• graphics via web interface

4
Program Overview

• 60 million/10 year program
• 766 million estimated annual recurring benefit
  (NHWC study)
• Operations Concept (http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/wa
  ter/Ahps-back.shtml)

5
Leveraging GovernmentInfrastructure and Expertise
Satellite Data
River Gauge Data
Weather Observations
Precipitation Estimates
Radar Data
Snow Cover/ Melt Data
Precipitation Forecasts
Reservoir Releases
Climate Predictions
Valuable Information to Satisfy Diverse Customer
Needs
6
Projected Service Benefits
Annual Benefits in Millions of Dollars
National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report
"Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood
Forecasts http//www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps/AHPS20
Benefits.pdf
7
Implementation Activities

• Leverage Partnerships collaborate with other
  government agencies and universities to
  incorporate state-of-the-art hydrologic forecast
  techniques
• Precipitation Estimation
• Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model
• Ensemble Hydrologic Prediction
• Watershed and River Models
• Flood Forecast Mapping
• Integrate Technology merge finer scale radar,
  weather forecasts, and climate predictions to
  specify uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts
• Custom Fit tune models to unique river basin
  characteristics and climate conditions

8
Implementation Status
9

• Accessing AHPS Information

http//weather.gov/
10

• Accessing AHPS Information

http//weather.gov/
11

• AHPS Graphical Forecast Products

http//weather.gov/
12
Hurricane FloydSeptember 1999

• Flood Forecast Inundation Graphics

13

• AHPS Graphical Flood Impact Information

• Enhanced communication of flood severity
  information

14
Flash Flood Decision Assistance Flash Flood
Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)

• Continuous monitoring of rainfall rate and
  accumulation with comparison to flash flood
  guidance for high resolution stream basins
• Automated alerts forecasters when a dangerous
  flash flood situation may be developing on a
  given stream or catchment

15
Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
Data Integration
16
Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
Basin Precipitation Accumulation

• Displays basin precipitation within the selected
  county

FFMP 1.0 Hour Basin Avg Precip
17
Future Enhancements

• Begin implementation of high resolution gridded
  hydrologic modeling capability in FY05
• streamflow and soil moisture forecasts
• resolution as high as 4 km and hourly
• soil moisture information at surface, root and
  aquifer depths
• Provide high resolution gridded Precipitation
  Estimates
• resolution as high as 4 km and hourly
• Access to gridded and associated graphical
• information via the National Digital Forecast
• Database (NDFD)
• http//weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/

18
Future Enhancements

• Assess utility of current flood severity
  categories
• Through the implementation of user-driven AHPS
  enhancements, we will provide information
  necessary to mitigate flood losses

http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/Ahps.shtml