Title: National Weather Service 3rd Quarter Review 2001
1 NOAAs Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) Meeting Americas Water Forecast and
Warning Information Needs
Thomas Graziano Chief, Hydrologic Services
Branch Office of Climate, Water and
Weather National Weather Service March 2, 2004
Providing hydrologic forecasts and warnings for
the protection of life and property and the
enhancement of the national economy
2Socioeconomic Impacts
Average Annual Deaths (1990-99) 502
Average Annual Damages (1990-99) 13.1 Billion
4.97
Hurricane
5.60
Flood
0.47
0.87
0.69
0.44
0.03
0.06
3Program Overview
- Provide enhanced water availability and flood
warning information by leveraging NOAAs
infrastructure and expertise - Modernize services through infusion of new
- science and technology
- - Flash-flood to seasonal freshwater forecasts
- - Quantification of forecast certainty
- - More accurate and timely forecasts and
warnings - - Flood-forecast area mapping
- - Visually-oriented products
- Provide consistent access to standardized
- graphics via web interface
4Program Overview
- 60 million/10 year program
- 766 million estimated annual recurring benefit
(NHWC study) - Operations Concept (http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/wa
ter/Ahps-back.shtml)
5Leveraging GovernmentInfrastructure and Expertise
Satellite Data
River Gauge Data
Weather Observations
Precipitation Estimates
Radar Data
Snow Cover/ Melt Data
Precipitation Forecasts
Reservoir Releases
Climate Predictions
Valuable Information to Satisfy Diverse Customer
Needs
6Projected Service Benefits
Annual Benefits in Millions of Dollars
National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report
"Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood
Forecasts http//www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps/AHPS20
Benefits.pdf
7Implementation Activities
- Leverage Partnerships collaborate with other
government agencies and universities to
incorporate state-of-the-art hydrologic forecast
techniques - Precipitation Estimation
- Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model
- Ensemble Hydrologic Prediction
- Watershed and River Models
- Flood Forecast Mapping
- Integrate Technology merge finer scale radar,
weather forecasts, and climate predictions to
specify uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts - Custom Fit tune models to unique river basin
characteristics and climate conditions
8Implementation Status
9- Accessing AHPS Information
http//weather.gov/
10- Accessing AHPS Information
http//weather.gov/
11- AHPS Graphical Forecast Products
http//weather.gov/
12Hurricane FloydSeptember 1999
- Flood Forecast Inundation Graphics
13- AHPS Graphical Flood Impact Information
- Enhanced communication of flood severity
information
14Flash Flood Decision Assistance Flash Flood
Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
- Continuous monitoring of rainfall rate and
accumulation with comparison to flash flood
guidance for high resolution stream basins - Automated alerts forecasters when a dangerous
flash flood situation may be developing on a
given stream or catchment
15Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
Data Integration
16Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)
Basin Precipitation Accumulation
- Displays basin precipitation within the selected
county
FFMP 1.0 Hour Basin Avg Precip
17Future Enhancements
- Begin implementation of high resolution gridded
hydrologic modeling capability in FY05 - streamflow and soil moisture forecasts
- resolution as high as 4 km and hourly
- soil moisture information at surface, root and
aquifer depths - Provide high resolution gridded Precipitation
Estimates - resolution as high as 4 km and hourly
- Access to gridded and associated graphical
- information via the National Digital Forecast
- Database (NDFD)
- http//weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/
18Future Enhancements
- Assess utility of current flood severity
categories - Through the implementation of user-driven AHPS
enhancements, we will provide information
necessary to mitigate flood losses
http//www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/Ahps.shtml