Energy, Society, and the Environment

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Energy, Society,and the Environment

• Unit 10
• Energy, the Climate, and the Ecosystem

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Energy and Environment

• The connection between energy generation and our
  ecosystem is a multi-faceted one.
• 1. How is our environment affected to
  date?
• 2. What caused these events?
• 3. How does the future look?
• 4. Can we change the course? How?

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Three Real Stories

• Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation in North
  America
• The Extinct Golden Toad in the Costa Rica Cloud
  Forests
• Bleached Coral Reefs in the Indian Ocean and
  Australia

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Mountain Pine Beetle

• The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae
  Hopkins, Coleoptera Curculionidae, Scolytinae)
  is a native insect of the pine forests of western
  North America.
• Bores holes into trees, leaves larvae in the
  bark, kills tree (first red, then grey).
• Periodically erupts into outbreaks.

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Outbreak in British Columbia
Image credit Kurz et al., Nature, 452, 987-990
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Is it Unusual?

• The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada,
  is an order of magnitude larger in area and
  severity than all previous recorded outbreaks.
  (Kurz et al., Nature, 452, 987-990)
• In northwestern Colorado alone, 3.5 million acres
  of pine forests have been killed by pine beetles
  in the last 10 yrs.
• USGS determined that tree mortality rates in the
  western states have more than doubled in the
  recent years.

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The Cause

• Nature's most effective population control for
  the beetles is cold weather, which kills beetle
  larvae. Sudden cold snaps of - 25 degrees C in
  the early fall or late spring, or sustained
  winter temperatures less than - 40 degrees C are
  required in order to curtail infestations.
• Since 1994, mild winters have decreased the
  winter mortality rate of beetle larvae from the
  usual 80 per cent mortality to less than 10 per
  cent mortality, which led to a large scale
  outbreak.

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Costa Rica Golden Toad
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Extinction

• Once abundant in a small region of high-altitude
  cloud-covered forests above Monteverde, Costa
  Rica
• Discovered in 1966, extinct since 1989
• Changing weather patterns shown to be responsible
  for its extinction, as is the case for other
  amphibian populations in the region

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Healthy Coral Reefs
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Coral Bleaching
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Bleaching in Coral Reefs

• Corals live in a symbiotic relationship with
  microscopic algae, which gives them nutrients and
  their color.
• Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose (expel)
  their algae.
• Corals begin to starve, and if stressful
  conditions persist, die.
• Stress is attributed to increased ocean
  temperatures, ocean acidification, overfishing

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Many other examples

• All can be attributed to
• 1. rising temperatures
• 2. changes in rain/snowfall patterns

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What Do We Know For Sure?
Source IPCC
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Global Mean Sea Level from Satellite Altimetry
Mitchum and Nerem, 2007
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Oceans are Becoming More Acidic
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The Data

• Global average temperatures have risen over the
  last 150 yrs, by more than 1.3 F
• The rainfall has decreased, and the patterns have
  shifted.
• The question is, why? and has it happened before?
  

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What sets the Earths thermostat?

• 1st Law of Thermodynamics
• Energy In The Sun
• Energy Out Energy Reradiated
• Energy Stored Earths Temperature

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Earth Energy Balance
Energy from Sun
EARTH Energy Stored
Energy Radiated to Space
Estored Ewind Eplants Eheat etc. Esun -
Elost
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Earths Energy Balance
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Earths Response

• Dominated primarily by the composition of its
  atmosphere
• Without the atmosphere, Ein Eout would yield a
  much colder Earth 254 K -19 C
• The atmosphere serves as a blanket and traps some
  of the heat gt 288 K 15 C
• All in all, 30 of solar energy is reflected, 70
  keeps the Earth at its warm temperature

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Question Order the Planets according to
decreasing temperature
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Venus is warmer than both Mercury and the Earth
because its atmosphere contains LARGE amounts
of greenhouse gases (97 CO2)!
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Natural Influences on Global Climate

• variations in the energy output of the Sun
• variations in the Earths orbit and tilt
• continental drift
• changes in atmospheric composition from
  volcanoes, biological activity, weathering of
  rocks

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Solar Energy Output
It is almost constant, mainly periodic variations
in magnetic activity
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Sunspots
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Solar Activity
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Variations in Solar Forcing

• Suns energy reaching the Earth varies on very
  long timescales due to changes in Earths orbit
  and tilt. These are called Milankovich cycles.

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41,000 yr
21,000 yr
100,000 yr
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Climate Cycles

• Periodic, sometimes extreme changes in last
  100,000 years
• Previous Cold/Warm Eras due to
• -- Milankovitch Cyles
• -- Solar Minima
• -- Variations in salt content of oceans
  (thermohaline circulation)
• Short-lived effects of volcanic activity

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Human Influences on Global Climate

• emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) as a result
  of deforestation, agricultural practices,
  fossil-fuel burning
• emission of particulate matter from agricultural
  burning, cultivation, fossil-fuel burning,
• alteration of Earths surface reflectivity by
  deforestation, desertification
• cloud formation by aircraft contrails

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Best estimates of global-climate forcings
1750-2000

• Increase in
• atmospheric CO2 1.5
• other well-mixed GHG (CH4, N2O, halons) 1.0
• net ozone (troposphere ?, stratosphere ?) 0.2
• absorptive particles (soot) 0.2
• reflective particles (sulfates, etc.) - 0.7
• indirect (cloud forming) effect of particles -
  0.8
• Land transformations increasing reflectivity -
  0.2
• Change in solar input 0.3
• The warming influence of anthropogenic GHG and
  absorbing particles is 10x the warming influence
  of the estimated change in input from the Sun.
  CO2 alone is 5x the suns effect.
• GHG greenhouse gases

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Positive and Negative Feedback

• If a system responds to an increase (of a
  quantity) by a further increase, positive
  feedback
• If a system responds to an increase by a
  decrease, negative feedback

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Positive and Negative Feedback

• Bodys Heat Regulation I cover you with a
  blanket, you get hot, your body sweats, your body
  temperature drops
• Two sound amplifiers bounce a sound back and
  forth. A small increase in the initial sound
  results in a large increase in the final sound.

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Temperature - CO2 Correlation
Source Wikipedia
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Past, present, and potential future levels of
carbon in the atmosphere
ATMOSPHERE
ATMOSPHERE
4400

Doubled

CO

Doubled

CO
(570)
(570)
2
2
Today
Today
3000
(380)
Pre
-
Industrial
Pre
-
Industrial
2200
(285)
(285)
1500
Glacial
Glacial
(190)
(190)
Billions of tons of carbon
Billions of tons of carbon
billions of
billions of
(ppm)
tons CO2
Rosetta Stone To raise the concentration of CO2
in the atmosphere by one part per million
add 7.7 billion tons of CO2, in which are
2.1 billon tons of carbon.
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About half of the carbon we burn stays in the
atmosphere for centuries
Fossil Fuel
Fossil Fuel
Burning
Burning
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ATMOSPHERE
ATMOSPHERE
billion
billion
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tons go in
tons go in
billion tons added
billion tons added
every year
every year
800
3000
billion tons carbon
billion tons CO2
Ocean
Ocean
Land Biosphere (net)
Land Biosphere (net)
8
7
15




billion tons go out
Slide credit for CO2 Abatement and Wedges R.
Socolow
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CO2 and the Oceans

• 1/2 of produced CO2 gets absorbed by the oceans
  land biosphere
• CO2 dissolved in water makes an acid. Remember
  the ocean acidity graph from before?

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Announcements 4/29

• Last homework posted. It is due a week from
  today.
• Monday Last new material (energy and climate
  policy, smart grid)
• Friday and Wednesday review for the final

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Final Exam

• A mixture of short questions, quantitative
  examples, and a couple of longer questions
• A few questions straight out of homework
• A review sheet with example questions will be
  available on the website tomorrow

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Solar 101 Lecture

• TODAY 5-8pm on campus

Agenda
500 Doors open 515 Introduction - Dr.
Alex Cronin, UA Physics 525 Overview of AzRISE
- Dr. Joe Simmons, AzRISE Director 555 Posada
San Pedro Solar Powered - Katherine
Weingartner 600 UA Solar Decathlon Team - Matt
Gindlesparger,Faculty Advisor 615 UA Solar
Racing Club Oliver Stickroth, Senior Member 630
Solar Power for the Home - Tamarack Little,
Giffords' office 700 Solar Research - Dr. Roger
Angel, Optical Sciences 710 Ron Stoltz,
Landscape Architecture work with Solar 720
Ralph Banks, UA Facilities Solar Power work 730
to 745 Informal discussions with presenters and
researchers
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The GHG Projections
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
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Current CO2 375 ppm Historical 180-280 ppm for
million yrs
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30
6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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The Stabilization Triangle
Slide credit R. Socolow
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
60
850 ppm
Stabilization Triangle
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Flat path
Tougher CO2 target
500 ppm
6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita
emissions are 4 tCO2/yr.
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Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
60 GtCO2/yr 16 GtC/yr
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Eight wedges
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Flat path
6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita
emissions are 4 tCO2/yr.
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What is a Wedge?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon
emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 4
GtCO2/yr. The strategy has already been
commercialized at scale somewhere.
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 100
GtCO2 in its first 50 years.
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Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges
in six broad categories
Energy Efficiency
Methane Management
Decarbonized Electricity
60 GtCO2/yr
Stabilization
Decarbonized Fuels
Triangle
Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans
30 GtCO2/yr
2007
2057
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
Socolow Pacala 2004
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Methane Emissions
Table 1 U.S. Methane Emissions by Source (TgCO2
Equivalents) Source Category 1990 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 Landfills
172.2 147.4
138.5 134.0 130.7 126.2 126.8
131.2 Natural Gas Systems 128.3 133.6 131.8 12
7.4 132.1 131.8 130.6 125.9 Enteric
Fermentation 117.9 118.3 116.7 116.8 115.6 11
4.5 114.6 115.0 Coal Mining
81.9 62.6 62.8 58.9 56.2 55.6 52.4 53.8 M
anure Management 31.2 36.4 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.9 3
9.3 39.1 Wastewater Treatment 24.8
31.7 32.6 33.6 34.3 34.7 35.8 36.8 Petroleum
Systems 20.0 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.1
Rice Cultivation 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.3 7.5 7.6 6.8 6.9
Stationary Sources 7.8 7.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 6.7 6.4
6.7 Abandoned Coal Mines 6.1 8.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 6.9
6.4 6.4 Mobile Sources 4.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1
2.9 2.7 Petrochemical Produc. 1.2
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 Iron and Steel
1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Agr.
Residue Burning 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
0.8 Total for U.S. 605.3
579.5 569.3 557.3
554.2 546.7 542.3
544.9
Source U.S. Emissions Inventory 2005
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How much does this cost?
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Units

• Eur / tCO2e
• tCO2e / yr

equivalent
tons
of CO2
per year
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Efficiency Approach to Climate Stabilization
from the McKinsey report
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First Priority Wedges

• Efficiency wedges
• Wedges displacing petroleum use
• Wedges displacing conventional coal power

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Well, can we make coal clean?
Other names Carbon Capture and Storage
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
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Carbon capture and geological storage

• Will make coal electricity twice as expensive

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Clean Coal

• Impacts of unintended leakage
• Health and safety of workers and general
  population
• Environmental impacts
• Unwanted intrusion into drinking water
• Earthquakes

Tree kill at Mammoth Mountain, CA
http//quake.wr.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/CO2/
Unfortunately, not clean enough
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Climate Policy

• Carbon cap and trade
• Carbon tax
• Renewable portfolio standards
• Efficiency standards
• Subsidies and incentives
• for renewables

legislation

motivation
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Arizona Renewables Standard

• March 2, 2006 Arizona Passes 15 Percent
  Renewable Energy Standard

On Monday, Commissioners Marc Spitzer, Bill
Mundell and Kris Mayes voted to require
regulated electric utilities to generate 15
percent of their energy from renewable resources
by 2025. For 2006, utilities must generate 1.25
percent of retail energy sold from renewable
resources.
Source RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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California Renewables Portfolio
Timeline for Electricity from Renewable
Resources 2002 Senate Bill 1078 establishes the
RPS program, requiring 20
renewable energy by 2017. 2003 Energy Action
Plan I accelerated the 20 deadline to
2010. 2005 Energy Action Plan II recommends a
further goal of 33 by 2020. 2006 Senate Bill
107 codified the accelerated 20 by 2010 deadline
into law. 2008 Governor
Schwarzenegger issues Executive Order
requiring 33 renewables by 2020
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New CAFE standards

• Require average mpg of carmakers to exceed
  certain thresholds
• Penalty system?

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Example Gas Guzzler Tax

• Gas Guzzler Tax2008 Fuel E
• Congress established Gas Guzzler Tax
  provisions in the Energy Tax Act of 1978 to
  discourage the production and purchase of
  fuel-inefficient vehicles. The Gas Guzzler Tax is
  assessed on new cars that do not meet required
  fuel economy levels. These taxes apply only to
  passenger cars.

Source epa.gov
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And the Carrot

• Tax credits for renewables
• Tax credits for increased efficiency (as
  demonstrated by lower electricity bills)
• Technological support

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Technology

• A large component of the technological support is
  building a new grid, and a smart grid
• Smart grid communicates with consumers, responds
  to changes in demand, evens out load, provides
  storage

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Renewables in Tucson

• TEP currently responds to renewable intermittency
  and to their lack of knowledge on how much
  renewable electricity can be produced by running
  the gas/coal plants anyway.

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Storage

• Batteries
• Super-Capacitors
• Pumped Hydro
• Compressed Air
• Hot reservoirs (high heat capacity fluids)
• Flywheels

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Flywheels
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Get Involved

• Energy Efficiency from home to federal
  government
• Carbon Wedges, Carbon Policy
• Energy Future Renewables, Nuclear
• Public Education