Title: Prezentace aplikace PowerPoint
1SOFI Czech Republic Tentative outcomes
Pavel Novácek Petr Kladivo Jan Machácek Jirí
Teichmann
2Aims
- Calculation of simple regional SOFI (14 regions
in the Czech Republic) - Calculation of complex baseline SOFI as well as
partial SOFIs for the Czech Republic (demography,
social, economy, environmental) - Analysis of regional differences - period 2001 -
2010 - Classification of regions according to selected
criteria
3Methods
- Calculation of simple SOFI (2001-2010), all
variables have equal weight (1)všechny promenné
mají stejnou váhu, SOFI calculated also for each
of 14 regions within Czech Republic, Real Time
Delphi will be done later (probably autumn 2012)
Variables
4First results
- thematic SOFI CR 2001-2010
5Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)
- Why are the poor poor and the rich are rich?
- The answer might lie somewhere else other than in
the known theories of development. - There are three basic guidelines that seek
explanation - a) dependence theory,
- b) the influence of geographical and
environmental factors - c) culturological approach
6Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)
- Maybe every development theory has some truth in
itself, but what we need is to create some
inventive synthesis. - Perhaps future-oriented thinking it the principal
key to prosperity and success. - If future oriented thinking is important factor
to prosperity and success, then we need
instrument how to measure it the Future
Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI).
7Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)
- Max Weber pointed to the Protestant ethic and its
influence on the development of capitalism in
Europe and North America. - The postponement of current consumption, savings,
investment, hard work, all with the vision of
Gods salvation after this life that is a
typical example of future-oriented thinking which
determines our current behavior and actions. - Therefore it is desirable to formulate a Future
Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI), which would
complement such indexes as GDP, HDI, SOFI and
others.
8Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)
- FOTI is by methodological approach close to the
SOFI developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the
Millennium Project. - But FOTI should focus more on identyfying how
people are able to take into account future
challenges and behave according to them, less on
state of the future (measuring whether
situation will improve or deteriorate). - Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to
calculate FOTI.
9FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Education
- Public expenditures on higher education
- Percentage of households connected to internet
- Research expenditures
10FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Health
- Public expenditures for health prevention
- Consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs
- Percentage of overweight people in society
11FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Economy
- Income distribution GINI Index
- Households savings
- Values of external debt
- Values of inherent debt
- Total debt service
- Internal debt of country expresssed as degree of
neglected infrastructure (roads, buildings,) - Official development assistance (ODA) expenditures
12FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Environment
- Expenditures to renewable energy resources and
into energy savings - Expenditures of households to buy ecological food
- Recycling ( of recycled paper, alluminium etc.)
- Ratio of total number of cars and bicycles in
country - CO2 emissions
- Percentage of nationally protected areas
13FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Other
- People voting in elections
- Percentage of religious people actively
practicing their religion - Ratio of households expenditures for food and for
culture - Number of accepted patents in one year
14FOTI tentative proposal of indicators
- Additional indicators were proposed by two MP
members as first feedback - Per capita cell phone
- Per capita number of servers
- Price of high speed connection
- Doctors per 100 000 people
- Scientists per capita
- Futures courses per capita
- Think tanks per capita
- Percent government budget for long-range planning
- Subscriptions per capita to futurists magazines
- Number of hits on Google in search of the country
and the term future country x - Websites with the name future in it per capita
15FOTI next steps
- Next step should be to select final list of
indicators. - All data should be publicly accessible sources.
- The overall index then should be calculated for
individual countries as an arithmetical average
of all selected variables (individual indicators)
16Polish Subnode
- Translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary into
Polish - Spreading the word Distribution of the Polish
translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary among
Polish entrepreneurs, government officials and
scientists - Introducing SOFI methodology to the Polish Club
of Rome and Polish Academy of Sciences - Cooperation with Economic University of Cracow in
the area of futures studies and technology
foresight - Cooperation with University of Warsaw the first
ever Polish course in humanities through futures
studies will be taught starting October 2012
17Polish Subnode
- Launching www.ptsp.pl a futurology and
foresight oriented Web portal created in a
cooperation with the Polish Futures Studies
Society. It is quickly rising in popularity in
Poland and becoming an important reference for
Polish internet users. Its development is
threefold - News section, presenting current, punctual
information - Weekly topics reviews, comments, reports
- A growing volume of general futuresresources,
translated by authorscourtesy from original
languages
18Slovak Subnode
- International Colloquium Designing the Future in
Europe 2011 (October, Prague) Civic
Futurological Society - Conference Global Existencial Risks 2011 (30.
November 1. December 2012, Bratislava) Slovak
Society for Environment - International Conference 40 Years of Limits to
Growth (March 2012, Bratislava) Slovak
Association for the Club of Rome - Seminar Gunter Pauli Blue Economy (May 2012,
Bratislava) Slovak Association for the Club of
Rome - Seminar Conscious Evolution and Creative Design
of Syntropic Economic Theory (March 2012, Prague)
Civic Futurological Society - Seminar From Limits to Growth to Blue Economy
Forty Years of Publishing Reports to the Club of
Rome (June 2012, Prague) Civic Futurological
Society
19Slovak Subnode scheduled activities
- Conference Global Existencial Risks 2012
(November, Bratislava) Slovak Society for
Environment - International Colloquium Designing Future in
Europe 2013 (Prague) Civic Futurological
Society - International Conference Global Problems, Local
Solutions 2013 (Bratislava) Slovak Association
for the Club of Rome
20Thank you for your attention
- Pavel Novácek
- Central European Node
- pavel.novacek_at_upol.cz