Extremist Network Interdiction

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Extremist Network Interdiction

• LCDR Michael Albrecht
• LCDR Brian Colburn
• LT Michael Wiederholt

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Current Captured US POWs
Warren Weinstein
Caitlan Coleman
Sgt Bowe Bergdahl
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Initial Problem Statement

• How do we rescue our American captives?
• Options
• Department of Defense
• Holding location is believed in the vicinity of
  Miramshah, Pakistan
• Intractable option due to geo-political
  boundaries and sensitivities
• State Department
• Negotiations
• Prisoner Swap

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Roadblock to Negotiations?

• Drone Strikes
• 5 Nov 2013, Hakimullah Meshud was killed by a
  suspected drone strike.
• Claimed to be the reason the Taliban left the
  peace table.
• Double-Edged Sword
• Significantly degrades the ability, and
  influence, of our enemies.
• Possibility of severing the ties between the
  Islamic Emirate and the insurgents who are
  directly in control of the American captives.

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New Problem Statement

• With continued drone strikes, how resilient is
  the terrorist network communication?

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Intel Center - Unclassified
Question How to connect the all the dots?
Mullah Omar
Dirt Bag ? But not necessarily terrorist
Associate the connection between the Islamic
Emirate to the captives
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Compress Chart to Excel

• Key Elements
• Name
• Unique Id
• Associated Shura/Network
• Connections
• Provinces
• Difficulty to attack
• Whether or not this person is attackable

Name id Within Connections Province strength Attackable
AnwarDangar ANW_DAN PeshawarShura KabulAttackNetwork ParwanKapisa 50 1
JalaluddinHaqqani JAL_HAQ HaqqaniNetwork CAPTIVES 1000 1
Dawood DA_W KabulAttackNetwork KabulAttackNetwork 1 1
..
.. ..
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The Area of Responsibility
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Shura Province Nodes
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Insurgent Nodes
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The Network
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Shortest-Path
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50
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GAMS Formulation
Shortest Path Objective

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GAMS Formulation
Interdiction Dual

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Resilience Curve
Order of Attack 1. Sirajuddin Haqqani 2. Taj Mir
Jawad 3. Mullah Omar
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Attack Results
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Resilience Curve
Order of Attack 1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2.
Badruddin Haqqani 3. Jalaluddin Haqqani 4.
Maulawi Sangin Zadran 5. Mohammed Nasir 6.
Sirajuddin Haqqani
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Omar not attacked
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Resilience Curve
Order of Attack 1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2. Eid
Mohammed 3. Hamid Dullah 4. Maulawi Mohammed
Ahmed 5. Maulawi Sangin Zadran 6. Sarwar Khan
7. Sirajuddin Haqqani 8. Taj Mir Jawad
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Omar and Jalaluddin not attacked
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Measure of Effectiveness

• Results list
• Ahmed Taha Khalid
• Eid Mohammed
• Hamid Dullah
• Maulawi Mohammed Ahmed
• Maulawi Sangin Zadran
• Sarwar Khan
• Sirajuddin Haqqani
• Taj Mir Jawad

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Uses of Model

• Identify critical nodes
• Sever communications between insurgent entities
• Fracture any two insurgent networks
• Modify the start and end nodes
• Prevent unwanted results
• Conflicting directives between agencies
• DPMO / State Department work to negotiate release
• vs
• DoD strikes to degrade insurgent capabilities

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Limitations / Follow-On Work

• The list is roughly all or nothing
• Many multiple paths
• Does not detail the significance of any one
  individual
• Higher fidelity influence information is required
• Run model on CLASSIFIED Network
• Unknown networks or individuals?
• Other Networks other than Islamic Emirate to
  negotiate with Haqqani
• Unknown Networks that could influence Haqqani
• Purchase a license through Intel Center (NPS
  Investment)
• Just need 3K-100k ? no big deal

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Resources

• Intelcenter.com
• Network graph
• Gams code by Dr. Ned Dimitrov
• Modified spstop.gms
• Various news articles
• www.longwarjournal.com

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Questions?
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QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?
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• Intro
• POW
• History POWs
• Bowe 2 POWs
• Never Leave a man behind
• Problem Statement
• How to recover POWs
• Military Recovery (not an option)
• Drives to Peace Negotiations/ Prisoner Transfer
• Drone Strikes gtgtgt Target in our network
• ? 5 Min tacked on for Intro
• Islamic Emmerite to the Haqqani Network
• Big Chart Wall
• Our Network PPT
• New Problem Statement How many who until
  negotiation rendered moot
• ? Tack on 5 minutes here (10 min total)
• GAMS Model (briefly mention python)
• One slide showing one possible route
• First show the Shortest Path ? output for one
  attack