Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Abortion is a controversial issue!!
• Walker (earlier edition)
• "Whatever your views on abortion might be, it is
  difficult if not impossible to find a connection
  between it and serious crime.
• Legalizing or criminalizing abortion has no
  effect on robbery and burglary."

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• In a newer edition (6), Walker briefly
• mentions some recent new research on
• abortion and crime rates, but he doesnt
• discuss it in any detail.
• He also says it hasnt been replicated
• but doesnt explain what that means.
• Now Walker says essentially that the study
• has been refuted

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• New research indicates that abortion
• (and to a lesser extent the economic boom)
• is a major reason for the big drop in crime
• in the 1990's!! (Levitt and Donahue)
• BJS homicide table next slide
• Note Compare to baby boomers in 1960s

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(Table from Bureau of Justice Statistics)
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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• What the new research found -- using
• mainly demographic analysis - is that
• abortion reduced the number of people at
• the prime crime age in the 1990s, and the
• reduced number led to lower crime rates.
• Note these researchers take no position
• on abortion as a moral/political issue!!

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Background/History
• Late 1940s into early 1950s (after WW2)
• baby boomers born, led to huge crime incr
• roughly 15-25 years later in the 1960s as
• the baby boomers reached prime crime age.

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 1950s
• Unwanted pregnancies often led to forced
• marriages - shotgun marriages
• Abortion and birth control mostly restricted
• - especially unobtainable for the poor
• But birth rates were dropping - the pill

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 1960s
• Increasing illegal abortions birth control
• Baby boomers reaching parenting age - echo
• (Echo boomer kids hit the prime crime age in
• the 1980s - much smaller numbers than bb)

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 1970s
• Birth control family planning for middle
  class
• (Reduced unwanted pregnancies forced
  marriages)
• Legal abortion for poor women (mostly teens)
  begins
• Publicly subsidized/funded

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 1970s 1980s
• 1.5 million abortions a year - mostly poor
• 30 million abortions, 25 million fewer poor
• young people through the 1990s -
• as they would have aged in to crime
• Thus, the big drops in crime in the 1990s!

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Donohue and Levitt (researchers)
• Researchers are very cautious!!
• Four lines of evidence supporting role
• of abortion in 1990s crime decreases

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Crime decreases started about 18 years after
  legalization of abortion following Roe v. Wade
• - just about when first cohorts were reaching
• prime crime age.
• Authors This is weakest part of argument!
• Researchers cautious - many other things going on
  at the same time - simultaneity problem

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 2. Five states legalized abortion 3 years before
• Roe v. Wade - crime decreases started in
• all five states about 3 years before the
  national
• trend started.
• Authors Still weak evidence -
• could be coincidence (more caution)

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 3. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s
• had much larger crime decreases in the 1990s
• than states with low abortion rates in the
  1970s.
• Authors more convincing evidence!

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• 4. The large crime drop in the 1990s only
  occurred
• among those under 25 years old which is the
  only
• demographic group at the time who had been
• affected by the legalization of abortion.
• Authors combined with the other patterns,
• this becomes pretty convincing evidence.

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Putting the research into context --
• what else was going on that contributed to
• the drop in homicide/crime in the 1990s?
• -- back to the table --

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• Rise in 1980s, before drop in 1990s
• the economic boom?
• changes in availability of guns? (more later)
• demographics/abortion?
• Note growth of imprisonment rate slowed in the
• 1990s (so not incapacitation).

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Chapter 12 - Abortion and Crime

• So the answer to the original question -
• Decriminalization can, and has, contributed
• to reducing serious crime -
• This also illustrates the huge importance
• of sociology to criminology!