WeatherDiscussion0512

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WeatherDiscussion0512
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Major Weather Related Threat
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Seattle Pollen 05/12/14
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Temps Have Been Warm
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And Dry
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500 hPa Anomaly
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Obligatory ENSO Discussion
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Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are
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Weekly Central Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean
(0-300 m)Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies increased during
June, August, and in October 2013. Toward the
end of January 2014, temperature anomalies
strongly increased. Recently, the positive
anomalies have decreased, but remain elevated.
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Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the
Equatorial Pacific
Recently, positive subsurface anomalies are
widespread across most of the Pacific basin, but
have weakened in recent weeks.
Most recent pentad analysis
During March-April, the downwelling phase of a
strong oceanic Kelvin wave resulted in an
eastward shift of above-average temperatures
(right hand panels). The recent weakening of
the positive temperature departures represents
the effects of the upwelling phase of the Kelvin
wave.
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Predictability
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CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated 8 May 2014
The chances of El Niño increase during the
remainder of 2014, exceeding 65 by summer (JJA).

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February Forecast Was Less Confident
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IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook
Most models predict ENSO-neutral (-0.5ºC to
0.5ºC) to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring (AMJ). After that, models
predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater
or equal to 0.5ºC) during the rest of 2014.
Figure provided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated
16 April 2014).
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SST Outlook NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued 12 May 2014
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line)
predicts El Niño starting within the next 1-3
months.
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What Happened to the CA Drought?
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Paradise
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Bicycle Lake
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1430 UTC May 11
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https//www.youtube.com/watch?vPZ5yPrhLmi4
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