Ronald Rogowski

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Ronald Rogowski

• Commerce and Coalitions

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Rogowski I 1840-1914

• Real trade increased 4 times 1840-1870, 2 times
  1870-1900
• Railroads decreased transportation costs by
  85-95
• Steamships decreased transportation costs by 50

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Trade and Cleavages
Land-Labor ratio
High (land)
Low (labor)
(urban- rural)
(class conflict)
High K
(urban- rural)
(class conflict)
Low K

• Cleavages shift when
• Relative factor endowments change (development K
  increases)

• Power shifts when
• Trade increases/decreases

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Trade and Cleavages, 1840-1914
Land-Labor ratio
High (land)
Low (labor)
UK, Fr
Russia High land, High labor, Low capital
High K
Germany Austria, Italy
1875 US grain
Low K
US, Canada before W W I

• Change occurs when
• Trade increases (transport costs decrease)
• Relative factor endowments change (development K
  increases)

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1914-Present
Land-Labor ratio
High (land)
Low (labor)
H-H
L-L


US 20th century, Canada, Aus, NZ, SU 1960s
England 19th, W. Europe 20th
EE 60s, Japan 60s
Norway Sweden
High K
Rural
green
Class Conflict
Urban
US 19th cent. LA, Africa after W W II
red
Germany 19th Japan until 1960 China,
Vietnam, Spain, EE, India
Low K
Russia Africa until WW II
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Structure of an argument
Research design
Hypotheses
Conclusions
Assumptions
Evidence
Logic
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
Confidence Scope Generality ???
How would you attack Rogowski?
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Objections assumptions

• Assumptions of Stolper-Samuelson model violated
• Capital flows internationally
• Capital, labor locked in specific sectors
• Frieden specific assets - incentives to lobby
  everybody benefits from industry-specific
  protection
• Country size (Katzenstein)

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Objections assumptions

• Firms vary in their international position
• Milner - export- vs. import-oriented
• - multinational vulnerability

Export dependency
Low
High


IV
III
H
Multi -nationality
Selective protection
Most free trade
I
II
L
Strategic trade
Global protection
Compare 1920s 1970s US France (subsumed
by Rogowski? A finer cut?)
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Objections hypotheses

• Not a test
• What would falsify hypothesis?

• Outcomes? Most interesting claims not testable
• Cleavages
• Right-wing authoritarianism with contracting
  trade. Left-wing revolution with expanding trade

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Objections research design
Fuzziness of key variables

• Independent variables land, labor, capital
  intensity
• Dependent variables
• what is evidence of a cleavage?
• expectations about timing of trade
  expanding/contracting and political shifts

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Objections evidence

• US New Deal (decline of trade strong labor)
• But why switch to Democrats if Republicans are
  protectionists?
• Rogowski claims New Deal was not very free trade.
  
• Problem business switched to free trade after
  Smoot-Hawley

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Objections evidence

• Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism in Latin America in
  the 1970s (trade increased land foreign
  capital ally for free trade)
• But Mexico Brazil vs. Chile Argentina.
  
• Collapse of regimes after 82 reforms, not
  protection

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Objections treatment of exceptions

• Why no revolution in India?
• (Trade contracts fascism trade expands
  revolution why not in India?)
• Rogowski too satisfied to revolt
• Building roads relieves pressure
• Congress represents a land-capital coalition,
  pays off peasants
• protectionist
• Ad hoc?

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Objections scope of theory

• Soviet Union and Eastern Europe
• Stolper-Samuelson does not apply to planned
  economies
• no free markets
• no comparative advantage
• no convertible money
• no profit incentive

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Conclusions?