What Do Those Darn Consumers Want?

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What Do Those Darn Consumers Want? Jayson
Lusk Oklahoma State University
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What will be remembered?

• Why do we even care about this question?
• I have no idea what will be remembered
• An easier question what have we remembered from
  100 years ago?

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1920-1929
1. Title QUALITY FACTORS INFLUENCING VEGETABLE
PRICES Author(s) Waugh, FV Published 1928 ,
Times Cited 49 2. Title GRAPHICAL
PRESENTATION OF THUENEN'S THEORY OF INTENSITY
Author(s) Krzymowski, R Published 1928, Times
Cited 9 3. Title THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
AMERICAN FARM ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Author(s)
Taylor, HC Published 1922, Times Cited 8
4. Title APPLICATION OF THE LAW OF DIMINISHING
RETURNS TO SOME FERTILIZER AND FEED DATA
Author(s) Spillman, WJ Published 1923, Times
Cited 6 5. Title THE FARMERS' RESPONSE TO
PRICE Author(s) Bean, LH Published 1929, Times
Cited 5 6. Title THE STATISTICAL
MEASUREMENT OF THE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR BEEF
Author(s) Schultz, H Published 1924, Times
Cited 5
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1930-1939
1. Title THEME OF PLANT AND ANIMAL DESTRUCTION
IN ECONOMIC HISTORY Author(s) Sauer, CO Times
Cited 17 2. Title THEORY OF THE FIRM AND
FARM MANAGEMENT RESEARCH Author(s) Schultz,
TW Times Cited 7 3. Title THE SHIFTING
DEMAND FOR SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES,
1875-1929 Author(s) Schultz, H Times Cited 7
4. Title TYPES OF FARMING RESEARCH AND FARM
MANAGEMENT Author(s) Wilcox, WW Times Cited 6
5. Title TENURE PROBLEMS AND RESEARCH
NEEDS IN THE SOUTH Author(s) Wiley, CA Times
Cited 6 6. Title DESIGN OF SAMPLING
EXPERIMENTS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES Author(s)
Snedecor, GW Times Cited 5 7. Title
SOCIAL WELFARE AND DIFFERENTIAL PRICES
Author(s) Stigler, GJ Times Cited 5 8.
Title THE NATURE OF STATISTICAL SUPPLY CURVES
Author(s) Cassels, JM Times Cited 5
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1940-1949
1. Title THE COST OF SUBSISTENCE Author(s)
Stigler, GJ Times Cited 106 2. Title
THEORY OF THE INVERSE CARRYING CHARGE IN FUTURES
MARKETS Author(s) Working, H Times Cited 104
3. Title ECONOMICS OF FARM LEASING SYSTEMS
Author(s) Heady, EO Times Cited 29 4.
Title CAPITAL RETURNS FROM SOIL-CONSERVATION
PRACTICES Author(s) Ciriacy-Wantrup, SV Times
Cited 22 5. Title PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
FROM A RANDOM SAMPLE OF FARMS Author(s) Heady,
EO Times Cited 18 6. Title THE ECONOMICS
OF PUBLIC MEASURES TO SUBSIDIZE FOOD CONSUMPTION
Author(s) Southworth, HM Times Cited 17
7. Title EFFECT OF TENURE SYSTEMS ON
AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY Author(s) Schickele,
R Times Cited 17 8. Title ACTUARIAL
STRUCTURES FOR CROP INSURANCE Author(s)
Halcrow, HG Times Cited 15
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1950-1959
1. Title ESTIMATES OF THE ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY
OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Author(s)
NERLOVE, M Times Cited 96 2. Title
SPECIFICATION BIAS IN ESTIMATES OF
PRODUCTION-FUNCTIONS Author(s) GRILICHES,
Z Times Cited 93 3. Title DISTRIBUTED
LAGS AND ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ELASTICITIES THEORETICAL Author(s) NERLOVE,
M Times Cited 69 4. Title THE DEMAND FOR
FERTILIZER - AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF A
TECHNICAL CHANGE Author(s) GRILICHES, Z Times
Cited 49 5. Title STATISTICAL ESTIMATION
OF LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Author(s) NERLOVE, M ADDISON, W Times Cited
45 6. Title TOTAL ELASTICITIES - A
PREDICTIVE DEVICE Author(s) BUSE, RC Times
Cited 29 7. Title THE MACHINE PROCESS IN
AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY Author(s) Brewster,
JM Times Cited 29 8. Title THE
MINIMUM-COST DAIRY FEED (An Application of
"Linear Programming") Author(s) Waugh, FV Times
Cited 24
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1960-1969
1. Title EMPIRICAL PRODUCTION FUNCTION FREE OF
MANAGEMENT BIAS Author(s) MUNDLAK, Y Times
Cited 122 2. Title PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTIO
NS OF FIELD CROP YIELDS Author(s) DAY, RH Times
Cited 86 3. Title RETURN TO POULTRY
RESEARCH IN UNITED STATES Author(s) PETERSON,
WL Times Cited 70 4. Title SPATIAL
EQUILIBRIUM AND QUADRATIC-PROGRAMMING Author(s)
TAKAYAMA, T JUDGE, GG Times Cited 69 5.
Title ADVERTISING WITHOUT SUPPLY CONTROL - SOME
IMPLICATIONS OF A STUDY OF THE ADVERTISING
Author(s) NERLOVE, M WAUGH, FV Times Cited 58
6. Title UTILITY ANALYSIS IN A PRACTICAL
SETTING Author(s) OFFICER, RR HALTER, AN Times
Cited 55 7. Title MEASURES OF SOCIAL COSTS
OF AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMS Author(s) WALLACE,
TD Times Cited 51 8. Title ON AGGREGATING
LINEAR-PROGRAMMING MODELS OF PRODUCTION
Author(s) DAY, RH Times Cited 49
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1970-1979
1. Title MEASURING VALUES OF EXTRA-MARKET GOODS
- ARE INDIRECT MEASURES BIASED Author(s)
BISHOP, RC HEBERLEIN, TA Times Cited 357
2. Title LINEAR ALTERNATIVE TO QUADRATIC AND
SEMIVARIANCE PROGRAMMING . . . UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Author(s) HAZELL, PBR Times Cited 167 3.
Title ENDANGERED SPECIES AND UNCERTAINTY -
ECONOMICS OF A SAFE MINIMUM STANDARD Author(s)
BISHOP, RC Times Cited 133 4. Title COST
FUNCTION APPROACH TO MEASUREMENT OF ELASTICITIES
OF FACTOR DEMAND AND ELASTICITIES Author(s)
BINSWANG.HP Times Cited 123 5. Title FARM
RETAIL PRICE SPREAD IN A COMPETITIVE
FOOD-INDUSTRY Author(s) GARDNER, BL Times
Cited 115 6. Title CAUSES AND
CONSEQUENCES OF HIGHER EDUCATION - MODELS OF
STATUS ATTAINMENT Author(s) SEWELL, WH HAUSER,
RM Times Cited 99 7. Title SUPPLY SHIFTS
AND SIZE OF RESEARCH BENEFITS Author(s)
LINDNER, RK JARRETT, FG Times Cited 95 8.
Title EXCHANGE-RATE AND US AGRICULTURE
Author(s) SCHUH, GE Times Cited 95
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1980-1989
1. Title WELFARE EVALUATIONS IN CONTINGENT
VALUATION EXPERIMENTS WITH DISCRETE RESPONSES
Author(s) HANEMANN, WM Times Cited 495 2.
Title ATTITUDES TOWARD RISK -
EXPERIMENTAL-MEASUREMENT IN RURAL INDIA
Author(s) BINSWANGER, HP Times Cited 199
3. Title WELFARE EVALUATIONS IN CONTINGENT
VALUATION - REPLY Author(s) HANEMANN, WM Times
Cited 123 4. Title EFFICIENT
REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH COMMODITY-MARKETS
Author(s) GARDNER, B Times Cited 109 5.
Title THE ADOPTION OF REDUCED TILLAGE - THE ROLE
OF HUMAN-CAPITAL AND OTHER Author(s) RAHM, MR
HUFFMAN, WE Times Cited 102 6. Title
COMMON PROPERTY EXTERNALITIES - ISOLATION,
ASSURANCE, AND RESOURCE DEPLETION Author(s)
RUNGE, CF Times Cited 102 7. Title AN
ECONOMIC-MODEL OF SOIL CONSERVATION Author(s)
MCCONNELL, KE Times Cited 99 8. Title
DEMAND FOR BEEF AND CHICKEN PRODUCTS -
SEPARABILITY AND STRUCTURAL-CHANGE Author(s)
EALES, JS UNNEVEHR, LJ Times Cited 96
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1990-1999
1. Title STATISTICAL EFFICIENCY OF
DOUBLE-BOUNDED DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE CONTINGENT
Author(s) HANEMANN, M LOOMIS, J KANNINEN,
B Times Cited 238 2. Title Stated
preference approaches for measuring passive use
values Choice experiments and contingent
valuation Author(s) Adamowicz, W Boxall, P
Williams, M, et al. Times Cited 153 3.
Title Modeling economics and ecology The
importance of a spatial perspective Author(s)
Bockstael, NE Times Cited 143 4. Title
CONTINGENT VALUATION AND SOCIAL CHOICE
Author(s) MCFADDEN, D Times Cited 112 5.
Title POSITIVE MATHEMATICAL-PROGRAMMING
Author(s) HOWITT, RE Times Cited 108 6.
Title Do roads cause deforestation? Using
satellite images in econometric analysis of land
use Author(s) Nelson, GC Hellerstein, D Times
Cited 93 7. Title ACREAGE DECISIONS UNDER
RISK - THE CASE OF CORN AND SOYBEANS Author(s)
CHAVAS, JP HOLT, MT Times Cited 93 8.
Title A REPEATED NESTED-LOGIT MODEL OF ATLANTIC
SALMON FISHING Author(s) MOREY, ER ROWE, RD
WATSON, M Times Cited 92
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2000-2009
1. Title The rise of supermarkets in Africa,
Asia, and Latin America Author(s) Reardon, T
Timmer, CP Barrett, CB, et al. Times Cited 95
2. Title Demand for beef from cattle
administered growth hormones or fed GM corn A
comparison of consumers . . . Author(s) Lusk,
JL Roosen, J Fox, JA Times Cited 61 3.
Title The role of amenities and quality of life
in rural economic growth Author(s) Deller, SC
Tsai, TH Marcouiller, DW, et al. Times Cited 57
4. Title Transactions costs and
agricultural household supply response
Author(s) Key, N Sadoulet, E de Janvry,
A Times Cited 57 5. Title In-store
valuation of steak tenderness Author(s) Lusk,
JL Fox, JA Schroeder, TC, et al. Times Cited
46 6. Title Effects of cheap talk on
consumer willingness-to-pay for golden rice
Author(s) Lusk, JL Times Cited 43 7.
Title Surplus distribution from the introduction
of a biotechnology innovation Author(s)
Falck-Zepeda, JB Traxler, G Nelson, RG Times
Cited 40 8. Title The Food Stamp Program
and food insufficiency Author(s) Gundersen, C
Oliveira, V Times Cited 36
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What will be remembered?

• The reality is that little will probably be
  remembered 100 years from now
• What are the commonalities among the highly cited
  papers of yesteryear?
• What causes them to be cited remembered?
• tend to offer a new or improved theory or method
• but you can see trends in hot topics that fade
• occasionally a paper is cited for the topic
  studied, but topical issues are likely come and
  go more frequently than theory/methods
• often written by a big name
• does the big name cause sites or vice versa?

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What do consumers want?

• Everything
• But resources are scarce . . .
• We have traditionally tried to answer this
  question by estimating preferences
• Hedonics
• Demand systems
• Contingent Valuation
• Experiments

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What do consumers want?

• Will these methods continue to work with
  increasingly novel and differentiated goods?
• How stable are preferences?
• Where do preferences come from?
• What about beliefs, information, and knowledge?

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Food Values
Source Lusk, 2008
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The CAC Method
Step 4 Submit bids
Step 1 Rate the desirability of many attribute
levels
auction bids
Step 2 Rate the relative importance of attributes
Step 3 Calibrate utility function to generate
desirable bids
Source Lusk, and Norwood 2010
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What lies ahead?

• More on the role of information on consumer
  choice and welfare
• More research seeking to combine data sources and
  methods
• More research on beliefs
• More behavioral economics
• but look for more probing about what behavioral
  findings really mean