Kevin Kane

1
PHASTAR
The Future for the Western Statistics and
Programming Communities in the Face of
Globalisation

• Kevin Kane

2
Overview

• The Global Economy
• Pharmaceutical Companies
• East vs West
• Stats Programming
• The Future

3
Global Economy

• The events of 2007
• Great Repression
• Economic historian Niall Ferguson
• Great Contraction
• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff
• Great Crash
• University of Berkeleys Robert Reich

4
Capitalism

• The whole intellectual edifice of financial
  economics collapsed
• Alan Greenspan
• Large swaths of economics are going to have to be
  rethought
• Larry Summers
• The notion that unfettered markets, all by
  themselves, can ensure economic prosperity are
  growth is over
• Joseph Stiglitz

5
Basic Ideas

• Old Capitalism focus is profit
• Ignores impact of people, communities, society
  and the environment
• Thin value
• Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does
  not allow people, communities, society and the
  natural world to come to economic harm

6
Pharmaceutical Companies
7
Demand for New Medicines

• Heart attacks Cancer survival
• Anti-infectives
• New medical conditions
• Respiratory illnesses
• Ageing populations

8
Costs of Drug Development
9
Solutions?

• Sufficient resources at early stages
• Network of RD resources
• Biomarkers Personalised Medicine?
• Adaptive Designs?
• More innovation, less me-too
• Cheaper RD costs

10
Other Pressures

• Cost-constrained healthcare systems
• More demanding regulatory systems
• More informed and active patients
• 209BN of drug sales at risk from patent expiries
• Some are predicting the extinction of the industry

11
East vs West

• Interesting survey looking at growth in Europe,
  US and Asia
• Scores based on management practices-
• Monitoring
• Target Setting
• Incentives

12
Management Practice Scores
13
Management practice vs GDP
14
US/UK/India/China
15
The Future

• Big Questions
• Asia Price, Quality
• West Price, Demand

16
Price Predicting the Future
Prices/Wages
East
Years
17
Price Predicting the Future
West
Prices/Wages
East
Years
18
Reality

• This is certain
• work that can be done cheaper in Asia will move
  to Asia
• e.g. straightforward reporting

19
What can the West do?

• Comparison with Constructive Capitalism
• Stats/programming are an RD cost
• Adding more value
• Work with our global partners
• Technological advances

20
Adding more value..

• Stats/programming as part of a drug development
  company
• Consider the whole cost (not thin value)
• Involvement in work to improve the probability of
  drugs getting on the market
• Better study design
• Reduce trial cycle time

21
Technological Advances

• Labour intensive process
• My 21 year view of technology advances
• Standardisation Efficiency
• What I think we need

22
Price Predicting the Future
West (routine)
Prices/Wages
East
Years
23
Price Predicting the Future
West (innovative)
West (routine)
Prices/Wages
East
Years
24
In Summary

• The West must compete in the global economy
  through specialisation and by adding value to
  everything we do. Developed nations can maintain
  their share of world markets by making more
  sophisticated products and incorporating
  technological prowess at every stage. They must
  compete on quality rather than price.
• Peter Mandelson, 2011