STW

1
STW NSW METOC MetricsOperational Modeling
Update

• Paul Vodola and Luke Piepkorn
• 18 May 2007

2
Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Preliminary Modeling Thoughts
• Next Steps

3
Final WIAT Upgrade

• Automated Interface with ESG
• Push-button formatting for all weather features
  considered in WIAT
• Lat-Long translation of data from any location
• Enables investigation of weather streams from
  other regions
• Transforms ESG spatial resolution to WIAT spatial
  resolution
• ESG 1/3o WIAT 1/2o
• Automated Output Processor
• Push-button formatting for certain key output
  parameters
• Generates results charts for the three key
  metrics categories
• METOC Performance Metrics
• FAC, POD
• METOC Impact Metrics
• Mission Saves, Mission Change Recommendation
  Accuracy
• Operational Metrics
• Sorties Flown, Sorties Cancelled due to Wx,
  Target Kills per Mission

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Final WIAT Upgrade

• Forecasting Methodologies
• Perfect Environmental Knowledge
• Produces baseline output for comparisons
• Best case scenario if 100 of METOC
  recommendations are accepted
• Gaussian Random Forecasting
• Actual weather feature provides distribution mean
• User inputs standard deviation for both Execution
  Planning forecasts
• Time-Shift Forecasting
• Enables investigation of the impact of mistiming
  the prediction of significant weather events
• Actual weather from another timeframe used as
  forecast
• User Inputs number of 6 hour blocks to shift for
  both Execution Planning forecasts
• Location-Shift Forecasting
• Enables investigation of the effects of errors in
  significant weather events location
• Actual weather from another environment grid will
  be used as forecast
• User inputs number of environment cells to shift
  vertically horizontally
• Percent Accuracy Random Forecasting
• Enables integration with online data collection
  metrics system
• User inputs forecaster accuracy for Green,
  Yellow, Red weather
• User Input Forecast

5
Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Preliminary Modeling Thoughts
• Next Steps

6
WIAT Launch Screen
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Forecast Methodology Selection

• Weather Prediction Methodology is chosen through
  the use of a pull down menu
• Methods 1-4 are generated automatically by the
  tool.

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Tabular Input Toolbar

• Each tab in the toolbar contains parameters
  associated with that category of input values

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Detailed Parameter Information
Details for each parameter include variable type,
valid inputs, and notes describing how the value
impacts the case
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Sample Input Categories
11
Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Preliminary Modeling Thoughts
• Next Steps

12
Sample Analyses

• Parametric analysis based on each of the
  automated forecast methodologies
• Time-Shift Forecasts
• Location-Shift Forecasts
• Gaussian Random Forecasts
• Percent Accuracy Forecasts
• Displays the range of possible analyses which can
  be completed using WIAT
• To be shown during WIAT training workshops /
  seminars
• Output is currently being analyzed

13
Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Preliminary Modeling Thoughts
• Next Steps

14
WIAT Training WorkshopDraft Agenda

• Introduction to WIAT Briefing (60-75 minutes)
• Introduce key components of model
• Introduce philosophy on WIAT applications
• Short WIAT demo
• Runtime display features
• Data Input Lab (30-45 minutes)
• Introduce data input process
• Operational vs METOC inputs
• Input locations
• Input formats functionality
• Analyses Results Briefing (60 - 75 minutes)
• Describe Sample WIAT applications
• Analyses Results Briefing
• Data Output Lab (30-45 minutes)
• Introduce output format statistics
• Operational vs METOC outputs
• Output Location
• Output processor functionality
• End-to-End WIAT Application (30-45 minutes)

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OPNAV Transition Update

• Goal
• Introduce WIAT to representatives of the World
  Class Modeling Initiative personnel from the
  Sea Strike branch of OPNAV N81
• Provide WIAT as a software tool for use in future
  analyses and assessments
• Meeting scheduled for May 24
• Attendees include
• LCDR Jeff DeBrine Director WCM
• Chrissy Juergens Studies Director for N81 Sea
  Strike
• LCDR Lance Lantier Maritime/Littoral Ops
  Analyst for N81 Sea Strike

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ESG Tutorial

• ESG tutorial has been developed for in-house
  (SPA) users of WIAT
• Rudimentary introduction into the ESG online
  database
• Outlines the process for downloading METOC
  feature data for use in WIAT and other modeling
  applications
• Is this useful to present during WIAT Training?

17
Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Next Steps

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SOF-METOC Database

• Compilation of database describing effects of
  METOC features on of SOF operations
• Feature thresholds
• Operations equipment impacted
• Compiled from a variety of resources including
• Joint METOC Handbook
• JTS/IWEDA
• Critical METOC Thresholds for SOF Operations
• NLMOC
• Joint Doctrine TTPS for METOC

Database Sample
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Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Next Steps

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Planning and Mission Execution TimelineGeneric
SOF Mission
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Deliberate Planning Timeline

• METOC Impact on long-term planning COA
  decisions
• Greater than 1 day lead time

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Deliberate Planning Timeline

• METOC Impact on detailed short-term mission
  planning
• Less than 24 hours lead time

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Deliberate Planning Timeline

• METOC Impact on pre-execution timeline
• Asset changes, COA rebrief, shifted execution
  times

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Outline

• STW WIAT
• Final WIAT Upgrade
• WIAT SimBinder Software
• Sample Analyses
• Transition Update
• NSW
• METOC Threshold Database Compilation
• Generic Mission Planning Timeline
• Next Steps

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Next Steps

1. Use database to determine operational impact
   thresholds for significant METOC features

SWH Prediction Accuracy
Too large for Boat Ops
Actual
Risk to Ops
No Impact on Operations
Predicted
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Next Steps

• Develop mission-level TACSIT model for Small Boat
  operations including
• Small boat insertion/extraction of NSW personnel
• DA mission
• Mission planning process timeline
• Critical METOC factors thresholds from SPA
  database
• Features
• Inputs to MPP
• Prediction lead times
• Decision rules

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Next Steps

1. Use operational modeling to determine regions of
   acceptable METOC prediction performance

SWH Prediction Accuracy
Severe Under-Prediction
Extreme inaccuracy in prediction of SWH impacts
selection of insertion asset
Too large for Boat Ops
Actual
Risk to Ops
Severe Over-Prediction
No Impact on Operations
Predicted