Demography of Armenia

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Demography of Armenia

• Craig Johnson
• May 14th, 2008d

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History and Geography

• Armenia is located in the Caucasus along with
  the other former Soviet Republics of Georgia and
  Azerbaijan. It is largely mountainous and
  landlocked.
• During the Soviet period, traditionally Armenian
  lands were placed in the Azerbaijani Republic.
  This resulted in a number of border disputes and
  armed conflicts, some of which continue to this
  day now that the countries are independent.
• While a part of the Ottoman Empire during World
  War I, Armenians were experienced forced
  migrations and other hardships. Approximately one
  million Armenians died as a result of various
  Ottoman policies, causing many to call it the
  Armenian Genocide, the first modern genocide.

https//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world
-factbook/geos/am.html http//reenic.utexas.edu/re
gions/The20Caucasus20region.gif
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Data Quality in Armenia and the Caucuses

• Armenian, Georgian, and Azerbaijani records of
  births, deaths, and other demographic issues are
  often criticized for poor quality by outside
  observers. This was even true while under the
  Soviet Union, but has worsened with time.
• Often, this results in gaps between years with
  adequate information, especially between the
  Soviet 1989 census and the Armenian 2001 census.
  Estimates between these censuses are questionable
• Armenias recent history of wars with Azerbaijan
  have especially affected data collection.

Mesle, Vallin, Badurasvilli
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Population Data Issues

• Even such fundamental data as population is
  highly questionable and contentious in Armenia.
• In particular, immediately following independence
  there was a tendency to inadequately address
  emigration by ethnic Russians, or immigration by
  Armenians from Azerbaijan. The net out-migration
  may have been as large as 800,000.
• The result was excessive projections, which were
  corrected by the 2001 census.

Mesle, Vallin, Badurasvilli
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Projections Compared to Census Values
Population in Millions
Mesle, Vallin, Badurasvilli
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Population of Armenia
Estimated Mid-Year Population in Thousands

• Armenias current population (2008) is an
  estimated 2,968,586 people.
• Using the most recent data, there are 1,407,220
  men and 1,595,374 women in Armenia, with a ratio
  of approximately 4.4 5 men to women.

Demographic Yearbooks, CIA Factbook
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Armenian Population Tree

• Like many population trees in the former Soviet
  Union, Armenias shows the effects of World War
  II (ages 55 to 64). In addition it shows vastly
  decreasing fertility.

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Fertility Statistics

• Again, poor data quality makes determining
  Armenian fertility rates difficult. Variously,
  over-registration and under-registration of
  births have resulted in uncertainty. Below are
  two different estimates for fertility in Armenia,
  the first based on official statistics, the
  second on hospital records of known births.

Mesle, Vallin, Badurasvilli
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Fertility in Armenia
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Fertility Continued

• This data, based on a DHS study, shows that the
  majority of children born in Armenia live in
  rural areas, while those born to older mothers
  are more likely to be born in urban areas.
• Armenias TFR, which indicates whether a
  population is reproducing at replacement rates,
  is 1.7 . This is below the commonly accepted
  replacement rate of approximately 2.1, which
  reflects the decrease in fertility shown by the
  population tree.

http//www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FR184/FR184.pdf
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Fertility Versus Infant Mortality

• Armenias average fertility rate is 41 live
  births per 1000 women. Below is fertility by age.

• The infant mortality rate in Armenia has been
  showing gradual improvement, with a minor recent
  increase.

Demographic Yearbooks
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Crude Marriage Rate

• Armenia did not provide data on the relative
  ages of newly married couples. However, using the
  information from the earlier population tree, it
  can be surmised that the present increase in the
  crude marriage rate will soon end as the current
  young generation approaches middle age and the
  next, smaller generation enters adulthood.

Marriages
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Emerging Marriage Trends in Armenia

• Most Armenians continue to enter traditional
  marriage as opposed to cohabitation. However,
  this seems to be moderately increasing over time,
  especially among men in their 20s.
• In Armenia men marry at later ages than women,
  increasing the percentage of men who have never
  married.

http//www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FR184/FR184.pdf
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Crude Divorce Rate

• While Armenias divorce rate is currently
  increasing (after a decline in the late 1990s),
  it is nowhere near Russian divorce rates. Thus

Demographic Yearbooks
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Mortality
Crude Death Rate
Death Rate by Age
Demographic Yearbooks
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Russian and American Crude Death Rates
Gavrilov, Gavrilova
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Life Expectancy at Birth

• Life Expectancy in Armenia has remained
  relatively constant since the last census, when
  reliable data was obtained after a lapse in the
  1990s. Below are the male and female life
  expectancies, blue and red respectively.

Demographic Yearbooks
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Health in Armenia

• Health in Armenia has been deteriorating since
  the last census, with child nutrition declining
  (left).
• Extremely few Armenians have adequate access to
  healthcare systems or healthcare professionals,
  irrespective of rural or urban location. Much of
  the difficulty associated with medical care is
  financial.

http//www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FR184/FR184.pdf
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Overall Situation and Comparison

• Armenias statistics system is far behind that of
  Russia and many other nations of the former
  Soviet Union, preventing a complete assessment of
  its situation.
• However, Armenias society is more traditional
  than Russias, and is ethnically homogeneous.
• This does not prevent it from experiencing the
  same pitfalls of declining fertility and a
  substantial difference between male and female
  life expectancy.

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Sources Used
CIA World Factbook. Armenia (2008).
https//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world
- factbook/geos/am.html Demographic and Health
Surveys. Armenia DHS, 2005 Final Report
(English). http//www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pub_det
ails.cfm?ID634ctry_id81SrchTpctry dfiles Ga
vrilov, Gavrilova. In-Class Lecture 8 (2008)
http//course.health-studies.org/Gavrilov- Lecture
8.ppt Mesle, Vallin, Badurashvili. Data Quality
of Population (2004) United Nations Statistics
Division. Demographic Yearbooks (2005).
http//unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/d
yb/dyb2.htm University of Texas. The Caucasus.
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nic.utexas.edu/regions/The252 0Caucasus2520regio
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