Agricultural and environmental indicators and models

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Agricultural and environmental indicators and
models

• por
• Rubén De la Sierra
• Rosario Peyrot

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Objective To generate agro-environmental
indicators to assess the state of the agriculture
and environment in the Country, analyze its
evolution, know strengths and weaknesses, develop
scenarios, and propose alternative solutions for
the several transitions that underway in Mexico
Once these indicators help understand the
meaning of economic performance, standards of
living, and short and long term implications,
they can help outline strategies that can use
present conditions to generate resources and
wealth at the least cost possible.
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• Issues to address
• Why are agricultural and environmental
  performance following its current path?
• Where are current policy, decisions, and strategy
  leading us?
• How can future prospects be improved?
• The key to achieving success is the ability to
  develop and sustain critical resources and
  capabilities, leveraging what we have today to
  grow more of what we will need tomorrow

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• Definitions
• It is critical not to confuse the meaning of
  various figures used to measure, asses, and
  understand conditions under which a very complex
  system, such as the agro-environmental one,
  operates. For this reason, it is important to
  start with term definitions useful to express
  different quantities.
• The main terms that must be defined and
  understood are
• Variable
• Indicator
• Lead indicator
• Lag indicator
• Index
• Model
• Agro-environmental concept

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Agro-environmental Concept 1 Is the dynamic
interaction between agriculture and the
environment. This relationship is considered
highly complex, since it includes process
involved with economic activities, agricultural
and livestock services, including externalities
(positive or negative) present in the
system. 1 Towards agri-environmental
indicators. European Environment Agency
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• INDICATORS
• In the case of Mexico it is imperative to
  develop dynamic indicators that describe
  transition processes underway in several sectors
  of the Country. It is not enough to gather data
  in the form of statistics or parameters without
  having them provide a more complete idea on the
  dynamics of the system as a whole.
• With the development and use of quality
  indicators one can arrive to an understanding of
• The difference between variables, indices,
  indicators and models
• The concepts of threshold, externality,
  opportunity cost, and re-conversion, among others
• Contextual, reference, and baseline information
• Environmental, financial, social, demographic,
  cultural, health and schooling indicators in an
  agro-environmental context
• Aggregation and dis-aggregation of data and
  indicators, in terms of space and time

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• CONDITIONS THAT MUST BE COSIDERED FOR THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF AGRO-ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
• Indicators must describe
• Proximal and tangible manifestations, as well as,
• distal and intangible causes that give rise to
  current conditions

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• One of the main goals is that when indicators are
  assessed and processed they become able to
  provide answer issues such as
• If the situation continues as is then,
• How long will it last?
• What is the weakest link/component in the system?
• What alternatives exist to avoid decadence?
• If decadence is unavoidable, then
• What is the best way to use resources and stretch
  the window of opportunity?
• Is the system in a homeostatic balance?
• What prevents the system from achieving an stable
  balance?
• What are the causes of uncertainty?
• At what cost could the region be recovered or
  reconverted?
• What is needed to prevent adverse situations?

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• ACTIVITIES TO BE CONDUCTED
• To understand the following items,
• Economic forces
• Long and short term environmental processes
• Shift in expectations from stakeholders
• Sustainable agricultural productive capacity
• Global and local change
• Cycles and decay
• one must conduct the following actions

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1. Identify agricultural priorities in different
   regions in terms of limiting factors that
   restrict the capacity for conservation and
   economic development
2. Develop and structure an information system
3. Obtain meaningful indices through the interaction
   of useful variables
4. Create models
5. Understand cycles (economic, climatic and
   political) under which different indicators
   perform
6. Measure current conditions and compare them with
   given baselines
7. It is important to know what par of current
   policies facilitate orderly development, and what
   proportion of it is indeed applied
8. There are several intangible variables of
   sociological and cultural nature in Mexico that
   contribute system noise for the evaluation of
   indicators that would best reflect reality.
   Therefore it is essential to measure the
   Weltanschauung in the population. This is the
   precursor sine qua non of every other
   circumstance presently affecting the Country

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• CONCLUSIONS
• Social and production components of the Mexican
  agricultural system make it very complex at all
  levels. This situation is aggravated due to the
  transition in progress.
• In its current format, an integrated idea of the
  state of general agricultural and environmental
  conditions for the Country cannot be attain let
  alone if it is used to assess vulnerabilities,
  thresholds, or anticipate scenarios.
• If external factors, such as trade, migration,
  global circulation, global change, etc., are not
  taken into consideration, it would be impossible
  to obtain an integrated diagnostic about the
  quality of the conditions present in Mexico

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OBSERVATIONS There is some headway in the field
of indicators and models that have been done to
meet some compromises with international
organizations such as the OECD, IADB, IBRD, and
so forth. However, they do not address a
systemic assessment of agro-environmental
conditions. There is a major need for experience
and of innovation in the topic. The limited
sensibility about the political and economic
importance in the use of resources, by ignoring
the rate of use, stocks present, and future
needs, prevents a better use of them.
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THANK YOU