Space Weather Forecast Models from the

1
Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center
for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
The GeospaceForecast Model
CISM Science to SEC OperationsModel Transition
Process
The Solar Wind Forecast Model
Product Heliospheric Tomography

• Global Ambient Solar Wind
• erupted magnetic flux distribution
• outward pressure due to hot corona
• extended heating for fast wind
• rotational interactions
• commencing in SEC development environment
• in Spring 2007
• Importance for Space Wx Forecasting
• constitutes most of the solar wind
• recurrent activity
• path for CMEs, SEPs and Cosmic Radiation
• carries killer electrons
• onset, duration, and magnitude of high speed
• stream events
• coupling with geospace models

• Global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere
• physics-based simulations of Earths space
  environment
• with coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere model
• commencing in SEC development environment
• in Winter 2007/2008
• Importance for Space Wx Forecasting
• specification of geomagnetic disturbance and
• characterization of the electro-jet
• electron content of ionosphere
• description of the neutral atmosphere density
  and wind
• identification of magnetopause location
• predictions and alerts for utility companies,
• telecommunications, and satellite operators

Product Solar Wind Parameters at L1
The Planetary Equivalent Amplitude Forecast
Model
Products Daily, 3-Hr, 24-Hr Indices
Verification of Daily Solar Wind Model

• 1-7 Day Ap Time Series Prediction
• index constructed from North American ground-
• based magnetometers (same as USAF)
• persistent, trend, recurrent features of
  observed Ap
• exogeneous solar wind speed input (from ACE)
• based on McPherron (1990) linear filter scheme
• continuously running in SEC development
• environment since May 2004
• Importance for Space Wx Forecasting
• end-of-day summary of geomagnetic activity
• alerts for geomagnetic activity watch levels
• automated way of obtaining a forecast
• quick outlook of anticipated geomagnetic
  activity
• driver for other empirical methods (Kp, MSIS90)
• 3-24 Hour ap Time Series Prediction
• running index constructed as daily index but
  from
• 3-hour averages

Legend to SW forecast product blue bars
daily measured values black bars 8-hour
predicted values colored lines watch/warning
levels
Legend to Ap/ap forecast products blue bars
daily measured values black bars 1-day
predicted values grey stripe 27-days of solar
rotation colored lines watch/warning levels
Validation of Daily Ap
Probabilistic Warning Levels