Short-term space weather forecast

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Short-term space weather forecast A.A.
Petrukovich Space Research Institute, Russian
Academy of Sciences with contributions from
G.N.Zastenker, V.M.Linkin, N.A.Eismont

• What is space weather ?
• Why is it important ?
• Short-term forecast
• - concept
• - quality
• - real-time system

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Sun is a very stable star Total solar energy
flux - SOLAR CONSTANT
1.5 kW per 1 sq. m.
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active sun 0.1 solar constant cycle
with 11 (22) years energy from heat is
accumulated in extra magnetic field and
released sun spots solar
flares coronal mass ejections geomagnetic
storms
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1. Sunspot signature of extra magnetic energy
2. Solar flare in soft X rays explosive
release of energy
3. Subsequent coronal mass ejection
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Summary of solar emissions

• Solar UV - variable
• 2. Solar X-ray - sporadic from solar flares
• 3. Solar cosmic rays - sporadic from solar
  flares
• 4. Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field
• - permanent flow thermal expansion of solar
  plasma
• - magnetic clouds sporadic from solar flares

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• Solar wind interplanetary magnetic field
  interact
• with Earth magnetic field
• Steady solar wind flow create magnetosphere
  from the pure dipole
• Everyday interplanetary variations create
  geomagnetic activity
• energy from solar wind powers up magnetospheric
  dynamics
• Magnetic clouds anomalously intense solar
  wind and IMF
• create geomagnetic storms

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Earth is inside an electromagnetic
system energy of geomagnetic storm is
measured by megatons of TNT
All sorts of radiation and Electromagnetic
influence Radio, satellites, , humans
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Spacecraft effects
Electrostatic discharge on spacecraft surface
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Telecommunications In XIX cent. space
weather effects were observed in wire
telegraph lines
short wave telecom radars space telecom
GPS/GLONASS
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Effects on climate and biosphere ?
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Summary of space weather
Space weather is due to solar activity and
plasma environment of Earth Sporadic
intensifications storms are due to solar flares
and magnetic clouds in solar wind affecting
Earth Space weather is basically one for all
storms are global Monitoring and forecast are
important for many technical systems in
space and on ground
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Summary of forecast
long term (months and years) cycle
progression time-series analysis no
hurry mid term (weeks) variability due to
rotation (27 days) recurrence no
hurry flare warning (days hours) probability
of a flare in given sunspot complexity
analysis real time short term (days hours)
probability of magnetic storm after
flare registration propagation analysis
real time short term (hours) storm
development based on near Earth solar wind
time series analysis real
time Physics-based models (requiring HPC) are
not competitive currently but will be ?
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solar wind-based short-term forecast IKI studies
Monitoring of interplanetary medium in front of
the Earth is currently the only tool to provide
reliable quantitative, but short-term, space
weather forecast. A L1 Sun-Earth libration
point, 1.5 mln km from the Earth, is a convenient
place with the lead time of a forecast of about 1
hour.
Solar wind 400-1000 km/s 1.5-3 days
Geomagnetic storm
Solar storm
3-day forecast 50 reliability
Solar light 300 000 km/s 8 min
1 hour forecast gt90 reliability
Libration point 1.5 mln km
150 mln km
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reliability of the L1 monitor due to natural
variability of solar wind
measurements of solar wind and IMF (1996-1999)
Wind (distant) and Interball (near-Earth)
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probability of different (by 15) measurements
of energy input VB2 to the magnetosphere
magnetic storm (gt 1016 J) predictions are
reliable, while substorm predictions are
uncertain. ! role of small variations and
discontinuities
Petrukovich et al, JASTP, 2001.
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Geomagnetic indices AL and Kp (measures of
magnetic fluctuations) are used as general
indicators Future or current indices might be
estimated with real-time solar wind.
the main problem significant scatter of
index (uncertainty of magnetospheric dynamics)
with respect to solar wind input
solar wind driving function VBns
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ACE L1 monitoring
available in INTERNET
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ACE L1 monitoring
Unreliable measurements (marked by team) error
codes ACE in 2001 IMF 5.5 SW
20 intervals gt 20 min long IMF
3.9 SW 3.9 IMF SW
2.1 major reserve accept data even if it is
flagged
Internet availability errors add less than 1
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ACE L1 monitoring
ACE data physical quality real-time and final
data compared
2001
IMF clock angle wrong by 20-50o in
1997-2004! 30 error in Bns!
corrected only in 2004
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IKI solar wind forecast system

• download
• data quality check and filling gaps
• advection time to Earth

• activity estimates
• specific predictions
• product delivery

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IKI solar wind forecast system
Examples of general products
Overview plots for now and 1 hour
http//www.iki.rssi.ru/forecast since 1999
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future solar wind monitors

• using micro satellites
• placing monitor further away from the Earth
• Not so far to preserve forecast quality
• Solar sail is the only solution to keep
  spacecraft with Earth

solar wind 400-1000 km/s 1.5-3 days
geomagnetic storm
solar storm
2 hour forecast
1 hour forecast gt90 reliability
Libration point 1.5 mln km
3 mln km from Earth
solar gravity in balance with Earth gravity
light pressure
Earth gravity larger than solar gravity
solar gravity in balance with Earth gravity
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future solar wind monitors

• hardware
• instruments
• Magnetometer
• solar wind sensor
• Cosmic ray sensor
• total data flow 100 bits/sec.
• Total scientific payload weight 2 kg

"standing point" at 3 mln km requires a
spacecraft 25 kg with solar sail 1000 sq
m or 150 kg with solar sail
6000 sq m
sails are made with thin polymer
films initial Solar sail deployment tests are
underway world wide.
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What about a new solar cycle ?
A 2004 forecast
Solar min in 2007
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Earth as space ecosystem
Life depends on Space Earth climate driven by
constant solar energy
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Earth as space ecosystem
Life depends on Space Earth climate driven by
constant solar energy
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Solar system climate solar activity, solar
evolution, orbit interactions
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Earth as space ecosystem
Life depends on Space Earth climate driven by
constant solar energy
Solar system climate solar activity, solar
evolution, orbit interactions
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Galaxy climate local interstellar medium and
galactic cosmic rays
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CONCLUSIONS

• Short-term forecast is an important part of space
  weather services and is relatively novel
  technology
• Real-time data analysis tools (image and time
  series processing)
• are necessary
• Internet technologies are vital to create and use
  such forecast
• Proper data conditioning is an important task

Thank you !