Democratic Transitions in Latin America

1
Democratic Transitions in Latin America

• Maxwell A. Cameron
• UBC
• Poli 332

2
Democratic Transitions

• Sources of transitions war, crisis, upheaval,
  internal divisions
• Types of transitions rupture, bargaining,
  decompression
• Actors involved military factions, parties,
  business, labour, social movements

3
Starting Points for Democratic Transitions
Power structure Personalist
Institutional
Leadership Military Civilian
Traditional BA regime caudillo D
elegative Oligarchies, one- Democracy
party systems Source Smith 2005, p. 45
4
The Concept of Oligarchy

• - Electoral regimes, but not fully democratic
  because suffrage restricted to a very small
  proportion of the adult population and only
  candidates of the dominate elites can run for
  office.
• Smith, 2005, p. 23.

5
Three Cycles of Democratization

• Transitions vary according to start and end point
• Cycle 1. 1900-39 Breakdown of oligarchy
• Cycle 2. 1940-77 Populism
• Cycle 3. 1978-2000 Pacted transitions

6
Cycle 1. 1900-39Restricted Democracies

• Breakdown of oligarchic states (civilian,
  institutional systems) restricted to small elite
• Competition among elite factions
• Early examples of democracy
• Radicals (Radical Civic Union, UCR) in Argentina
• Batlle, elected in 1903, in Uruguay
• Chile, gradual extension of the franchise

7
Cycle 2. 1940-77 Populist Phase

• Expansion of the middle sectors, pressures for
  inclusion
• Populist alliances
• Peronism
• Second Vargas government
• Bolivia under MNR
• Pacts in Colombia (Frente Nacional) and Venezuela
  (Punto Fijo)
• Many cases end with authoritarian rule
• Democratic regimes often short-lived, ending in
  brutal authoritarian regimes

8
Cycle 3. 1978-2000 Pacted Transitions

• Transitions in Peru (1978-80) Argentina (1983)
  Brazil (1985) Chile (1990) Mexico (1997-2000)
• Increasingly mobilized, complex societies
• Weakening of traditional elite (esp. landed)
• Stronger popular sectors and civil society
• Business ambivalence about military rule
• Severe economic crisis due to international debt

9
Conservative Transitions

• Reform or rupture
• Ruptures more results in more radical change
  (e.g. Argentina vs. Brazil).
• Democratization vs. liberalization (Mexico in
  1970s)
• Game of hardliners vs softliners/ moderates vs.
  radicals
• Types of guarantees
• Electoral (e.g. binomial system in Chile)
• Economic (property rights)
• Institutional (military monopoly over coercion)

10
Reformers
Ally with Hardliners
Negotiate with Moderates
2,1
Moderates
No guarantees (ally with Radicals)
Give guarantees
4,3
1,4
11
Case Study of Chile

• Coup in 1973. Internal debate on
  constitutionalism
• Plebiscite on new constitution in 1980
• New constitution calls for 1989 plebiscite on
  military rule
• Constitutional reforms in 1989, CPD endorses
  version of 1980 constitution.
• Designated senators military autonomy
  electoral system that favoured right
• Why did CPD accept?

12
Conclusion

• Transitions are important
• Vary according to start and end points
• Often involve bargaining between
  moderates/radicals hardliners/softliners
• Recent transitions have been conservative
• Looking to the future have transitional bargains
  begun to come apart
• Arrest of Pinochet
• MAS in Bolivia
• Chavez ends Pact of Punto Fjio in Venezuela