POS 316416 Latin American Politics 10162006

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POS 316/416 Latin American Politics 10/16/2006

• Course status.
• Midterm Exam Review guide posted on course
  website distributed/discussed at the end of
  class.
• Paper Assignment 1.
• Returned via e-mail this evening or tomorrow
  afternoon.
• Paper Assignment 2.
• Distributed in class.
• Lecture/discussion.
• Elections 2006.
• Democratization and transitions 1900-2000(6).
• Political Economy and Transitions/Democratization.
  
• Video Chile Defeat of a Dictator (30 minutes).
• Ties together Vanden and Prevost, Smith, and
  lecture.

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• Smith Chapter 2.
• Transitions to democracy are
• Complex affairs.
• Break down of authoritarian regimes.
• External war.
• Economic crisis.
• Defections from the ruling coalition.
• Summary of Chapter 2.
• Regime transitions did not inexorably lead to
  democracy.
• Most transitions led else where.
• All transitions effected by uncertainty.

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• Pre-Conquest/Colombia Polities Mayan Polities
  4.

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• Indigenous Mobilization
• Vanden and Prevost, et. al re indigenous rights.
• Contemporary Context.
• Minorities at Risk Dataset.
• LANIC Indigenous Rights Index.
• Democratization/Liberalization.
• Cold War/post Cold-War.
• Globalization.
• Videos. Videos (approx. 5 minutes).
• Sendero Luminso wrap up.
• Questions.
• How are they examples of different patterns of
  Indigenous mobilization?
• Importance of legacy of conquest, or current
  state of economic development and
  democratization?

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• Democratization and Conflict Global and
  Regional (Latin America).
• Marshall, Monty G. and Ted Robert Gurr. Peace and
  Conflict 2005 A Global Survey of Armed
  Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and
  Democracy.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.
• Diffusion of Democratization.
• University of Colorado/NSF. The Spatial and
  Temporal Diffusion of Democracy, 1815-1995.
• Movie of diffusion 1946-1995.

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• Smith Chapter 2.

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• Smith Chapter 2.

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• Smith Chapter 2.

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• Smith Chapter 2.

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• Smith Chapter 2.

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• Smith Chapter 3. ILO 2005 Report.

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• Equity Class Structure.

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• Equity Class Structure.

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• Landman, Chapter 5e.

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• Income Inequality.
• Global Patterns.
• UN Human Development Report.
• HDR Data in Flash Animation.
• Gini Index Country Rankings.
• Regional Patterns.
• UN Human Development Index.
• HDR 2005 Data Flash (Section 6 Slide 10).

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• Videos (approx. 30 minutes).
• Chile Defeat of a Dictator. 2000. WETA(PBS).
• Part of series A Force More Powerful.
• Economic Crisis/early Globalization
• Military Intervention.
• Aperatura.
• Church and Civil Society.
• Campaign to vote Pinochet Out (issues of
  Americanization of Elections).

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• Latin American Political Economy.
• Political Economy.
• How defined?
• Why important approach for understanding Latin
  America, and rest of planet?
• Pre-Conquest Economies.
• Regional economies at best, little/no evidence of
  connection to wider trading patterns.
• Conquest Economies.
• Mercantilism.
• Smith, Ricardo.
• Integration of Latin American into global trading
  routes controlled by Spain and Portugal.
• Specializes (or specialized) into export of raw
  commodities.
• Establishes pattern of dependence core/periphery
  relationship with core economies that persists to
  this day.
• Export raw materials import finished European
  and American products.
• Comprador class/elite.

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• Conquest imposed land distribution.
• Mirrored land holding patterns in imperial core.
• Large estates distributed to colonial
  administrators, conquistadores, military
  administrators.
• Latifundios.
• Patrón and campesinos.
• Minifundistas.
• Monoculture/monocrop economies.
• Persistent legacy.
• Cuba/Soviet relations even shaped by raw material
  monoculture economies.
• Foreign Direct Investment and Control.
• Enclave economies.
• Management foreign in compounds.
• Foreign control over means of production, and
  influence with core military/intelligence
  services distort internal politics.
• UFCO in Guatemala as example.
• Guatemala Documentation Project. National
  Security Archive.
• Overthrow of Arbenz 1954.
• Operation PBSUCCESS declassified 1997.

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• Independence - continued.
• 1850s1880s Pull of the International Economy.
• Post-independence consolidation.
• Foundations laid for integration into world
  economy.
• Ingredients to integration.
• Land resources.
• Labor including encouragement of immigration.
• Massive infrastructure investment especially
  integration of nation through development of rail
  roads.
• 1880-1910.
• European economy takes off increased demand for
  foods and other agricultural products.
• Europeans continue to invest in infrastructure,
  North Americans also begin to invest.
• Elite domination continues but styles of
  leadership moderate.
• Growing middle class/professional class (growing
  not large relative to Europe and North America).

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• Patterns of Change in Latin America 1880s-2004
  (adopted from Skidmore and Smith Modern Latin
  America 2001 Oxford Univ. Press).

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• Patterns of Change in Latin America 1880s-2004
  (Phases 4-5).

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• Latin American Political Culture.
• Although tempting, difficult to speak of one
  Latin American political culture.
• Oligarchy.
• Succession of non-responsive elites
  concentration of ownership of means of production
  and political power.
• Gradual widening of base of pyramid.
• Race, class, gender and power inequities.
• Indigenous, Meztizo, European.
• Income distribution.
• UN Economic Commission for Latin America and
  Caribbean (ECLAC).
• 1990-1999 Income distribution figures (p. 89-90).
• 2002-2003 Income distribution figures (p. 7).
• Classism Challenged.
• Mass Organizations.
• Unions.
• Support for class based revolutionary movements
  (esp. Communist/Socialist).

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• Why - Dependency and Underdevelopment.
• Trap of comparative advantage.
• Monocultural dependency vulnerable to wild swings
  in commodity prices (e.g. volatility in copper
  prices and Chile video).
• Difficulties of forming effective cartels.
• International Coffee Organization.
• OPEC.
• Without government protection difficult for
  agricultural and raw materials sectors to survive
  global competition and market fluctuations.
• Prebisch Thesis.
• ECLAC.
• Figure 7.1 (Vanden and Prevost, p. 157).
• Structurally determined deterioration of terms of
  trade.

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• Dependency Theory.
• ECLA and decolonization.
• Dependency theorys roots in Marxism and classics
  studies of imperialism (Hobson, Lenin).
• Nkrumah Neocolonialism, the Last Stage of
  Imperialism.
• Post-decolonization mechanisms of control over
  Latin America sophisticated.
• Franks Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin
  America.
• Reproduction of the autonomy of political elites
  identifying with foreign investors and political
  forces.
• Refutes two sector argument.
• How to break out of dependency - ISI.
• Nationalization of foreign investments.
• Tariffs to protect indigenous industrialization.

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• Attempts at export led growth.
• 1960s-1970s increasing integration into
  international economy.
• Transformation of Latin American economies.
• Extensive use of capital intensive technology.
• Increased training in manufacturing related
  engineering.
• Underdevelopment of appropriate technology.
• Spread of consumerism.
• State intervention.
• Growth of middle sectors in management and
  production.
• Growth of industrial proletariat.
• Problem - Borrowing exceeded increase in
  production and exogenous shocks - global economic
  downturn and petrol-crises.
• Borrow to buy hydrocarbons.
• Petro-dollars at high interest lent to countries.
• Inability to service debt.

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• Debt crisis leads to
• Brazil, Mexico, Peru, to threaten default on
  debts.
• Draws United States in direct negotiations with
  debtor nations, major investment banks,
  subsidization in order to isolate danger of
  defaults.
• Debtor cartel threatened but never materializes.
• IMF, World Bank, USAID get involved in
  restructuring debt and use this as leverage to
  dictate economic policy to debtor states.
• Structural Adjustment and Neoliberalism.
• Structural adjustments.
• Austerity reforms.
• Aimed at forcing state out of economy.
• Fiscal reforms.
• Cutting social spending.
• Removing price controls or supports.
• Attack on ISI returning to comparative advantage
  and export led growth.
• International context Reagan/Thatcher
  Revolutions End of Cold War.

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• Washington Consensus.
• Reduce government size.
• Fiscal/Monetary reform.
• Deregulation.
• Liberalization of commerce.
• Opening up to FDI and flow of capital.
• Privitization of government owned corporations.
• Elimination of subsidies.
• Movement from Keynesianism to Friedman and von
  Hayek.
• Neo-liberalism because viewed as return to
  Smithian classical economics.
• Neo-liberalism and Globalization.
• Related but not necessarily synonymous terms.
• Maquiladoras.
• Diffusion of production/distribution chains
  throughout planet.
• Shift to just-in-time production.

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• Regional Integration.
• Long sought goal.
• Simón Bolívars Congress of Panama 1826.
• 1824-1840 Central American Federation.
• Post World War II European Common Market 1957
  inspiration.
• 1960 Central American Common Market.
• Latin American Free Trade Association.
• Andean Pact.
• NAFTA.
• 1989 Bush I Enterprise for the Americas
  Initiative.
• 1994 NAFTA goes into effect.
• Major difficulties with NAFTA.
• Push for regional integration has slowed.
• FTAA.
• Eventual long term goal.
• Doubts have appeared about neoliberalism.
• Chavez, Lula.

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• Economic/Political Legacy.
• Economic recovery has begun - slow and uncertain.
• Growing economic inequality.
• Bifurcation/polarization of class structure.
• Upper/Middle class well developed consumer
  markets.
• Lower class - access to plentiful but low quality
  and too expensive products.
• Neoliberalism has moderated somewhat.
• Structural adjustments no longer quite as
  draconian.
• Rise of left of center anti-neoliberal states.
• Lulas Brazil.
• Chavezs Venezuela.
• Argentinian Crisis (PBS 01/07/2002 re
  international bailout)

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• Smith Chapter 7
• Elections hallmark of democracy.
• Basic tenets competition participation
  accountability.
• Comparing 2nd (1940-1970) and 3rd (1978-2000)
  cycles.
• Paradox, high participation endemic discontent.
• Expansion of electorate.
• Participation.
• Range of Choice.
• Rule 1 More brutal military regime, moderation.
• Rule 2 Risk of renewed intervention, moderation.
  
• Bureaucratic Authoritarianism/Military populism.
• Political Gridlock.
• Dilemma efficiency/represenation.
• Box 7.2 New Opportunity for the Left?

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• Smith Chapter 7

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• Gender Rights Womens Rights. Foweraker et. al
  2003.

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• Smith Chapter 7

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• Smith Chapter 7

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• Smith Chapter 7

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• Smith Chapter 7

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• Smith Chapter 8
• State Capacity.
• Statism/Stateness.
• Democracies vs. Dictatorships.
• Which builds state capacity most rapidly.
• Impact
• Health and Education.
• Poverty and Income Distribution.
• Gini Index.

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• Smith Chapter 8

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• Smith Chapter 8

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• Next Week (10/23/2006).
• Midterm exam.