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The Crisis of Federalism and Prospects for
Provincial Autonomy in Pakistan

• Jami ChandioReagan-Fascell Democracy
  FellowInternational Forum for Democratic
  StudiesNational Endowment for
  DemocracyWashington, D.C.April 30, 2009The
  views expressed in this presentation represent
  the analysis and opinions of the speaker and do
  not necessarily reflect those of the National
  Endowment for Democracy or its staff.

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Presentation Outline

• Part I Introduction and Historical Context
• Part II Issues of Federalism
• Part III Recommendations

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State Crisis in Pakistan
Lahore Struggle for rule of law
Armed patrols in Pashtunkhwa (NWFP)
Sindh Demanding legitimate rights
Grieving in Balochistan
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PASHTUNKHWA (NWFP)
Pop 20.22 mil
Languages Pashto, Hazara,
Ethnicities Pashtun, Hazara, Tribal
PUNJAB
Pop 81.85 mil
Languages Punjabi, Siraiki
Ethnicities Punjabi, Siraiki
BALOCHISTAN
Pop 10.25 mil
Languages Balochi, Pashtun
Ethnicities Baloch, Pashtun
Federally Administered Northern Areas (FANA)
Pop 1.8 mil
Languages Pashto/ Hazara
Ethnicities Ismaeli, Pashtun/Hazara
SINDH
Pop 49.98 mil
Languages Sindhi, Urdu-speaking
Ethnicities Sindhi, Urdu-speaking
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
Pop 5.6 mil
Languages Pashto, Hazara
Ethnicities Pashtun, Tribal
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Courtesy Friedrich Naumann Siftung and Liberal
Forum of Pakistan
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Pre-Partition

• Historical interpretations that place religion as
  the primary factor behind the partition of India
  are fundamentally flawed.
• Decentralization, provincial autonomy, and
  power-sharing were demands of the northeast and
  northwest Muslim majority provinces.
• Until 1930, there was little support for a state
  like Pakistan in these Muslim majority areas
  because of fears over this new state mainly
  representing Punjabi interests.

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Rationale Behind the Emergence of Pakistan

• Nehru Report of 1928 and the Constitution of
  India (1935 India Act) became major sources of
  conflict, which ultimately resulted in partition.
• The constitution removed basic autonomy and
  rights from historically self-governed federating
  units
• NE and NW Muslim majority provinces feared the
  domination and power of federal authorities.
• Muslim League divisively exploited religion to
  gain support against the 1935 Act, which
  preserved the united state of India.
• The 1940 Lahore Resolution offered the status of
  autonomous and sovereign states within the new
  formula.
• After the1940 Resolution, NE and NW
  Muslim-majority provinces agreed to join the new
  state of Pakistan.

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Post-Partition Dilemmas

• 1947 Independence Act and over-centralization
  of state authorities through Provisional
  Constitution Order
• 1949 Adoption of 1935 Act as an interim
  constitution for the new Pakistani state
• Objective Resolution lays foundations for a
  theocratic state and a unitary form of government
• 1949 Elevation of Urdu to the status of sole
  national language (which only 5.8 population of
  West Pakistan spoke)
• 1955 Consolidation of west Pakistani provinces
  into the ill-famed One Unit scheme

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Constitutions of Pakistan
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Part II Issues of Federalism

• Over-centralization of the state
  authorities/structures
• Concurrent lists favor federal authority against
  provinces
• Domination of one province (Punjab) in all state
  institutions parliament, armed forces, civil
  bureaucracy, and federal agencies and
  corporations.
• Plight of smaller provinces
• Unjust National Finance Commission (NFC) awards
• Inequalities in natural resource exploitation and
  royalty distribution (water, oil, gas, coal,
  etc.)
• Disproportionate allocation of jobs and
  opportunities
• Undemocratic language and education policies
• Inter-provincial migration and fears of
  supplanting of indigenous peoples

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Inequalities in National Finance Commission (NFC)
Awards
Province Population-based Human Development Indicators Revenue Collection Inverse Population Density
Punjab 57.36 20.6 23.04 4.32
Sindh 23.71 22.5 69.02 7.18
Baluchistan 5.11 24.9 2.40 82.0
Pashtunkhwa (NWFP) 13.82 32.0 5.54 6.50
Source Pakistan National Human Development
Report 2003, UNDP Pakistan, as cited in Dr.
Gulfaraz Ahmed, Fiscal Federalism Resource
Sharing Issues, Pakistan Institute of
Development Economics.
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Inequalities in Natural Resource Exploitation
and Royalty Distribution
Provincial Oil and Gas Production in Pakistan
20072008

• Each province receives 12.5 of the total revenue
  it contributes to the national pool from resource
  exploitation.
• The federal center keeps the other 88.5 of the
  royalty.
• Oil- and gas-producing provinces remain
  chronically underdeveloped and do not receive
  their fair share from wealth production.

Province Gas Production () Oil Production ()
Sindh 71 56
Punjab 5 25
NWFP 2 18
Baluchistan 22 0.1
Source Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, Ministry
of Petroleum and Natural Resources, Government of
Pakistan.
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Disproportionate Allocation of Jobs and
Opportunities
Quota Established in 1973 Army (2009) Civil Servants (1993) Autonomous Bodies and Corporations (1993)
Punjab 50 86 62.36 49.94
Pashtunkhwa (NWFP) 11.5 9 12.41 10.17
Sindh Urban 7.5 Rural 11.4 Total 18.9 3.2 Urban 9.5 Rural 7.6 Total 17.1 Urban 26.8 Rural 8.2 Total 35.0
Balochistan 3.5 1 3.01 2.43
Source Mohammad Waseem, Affirmative Action
Policies in Pakistan, Ethnic Studies Report,
Vol. XV, No. 2, July 1997.
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Ethnic Representation in Federal Bureaucracy
1973 1983 1986
Punjabi 49.3 54.9 55.3
Pashtun 10.5 13.4 12.6
Sindhi 3.1 5.4 7.2
Urdu-speaking 30.1 17.4 18.2
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) 2.6 3.6 1.4
Azad Jammu and Kashmir 1.8 1.9 1.7
Source Charles H. Kennedy, Managing Ethnic
Conflict The Case of Pakistan, Regional
Politics and Policy (Spring 1993) p. 138.
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Consequences of Denied Federalism

• Intra-state conflicts (economic, political and
  ethnic)
• Center vs. Provinces
• Punjab vs. Smaller Provinces
• Provinces vs. Districts
• Separation of East Pakistan (Bangladesh)
• Rising distrust in model of federalism as
  practiced in Pakistan
• Weak state institutions and bad governance
• Underdeveloped provincial and local governments
  and infrastructure
• Unresponsiveness of authorities to citizens
  immediate needs and rights

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Part III Recommendations

• Constitutional Reforms
• Separation of Powers
• Provincial autonomy
• Fiscal Redistribution (NFC Awards)
• Resource Exploitation and Royalties

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RecommendationsConstitutional Reforms

• A new, more democratic and representative
  constitution based on the 1940 Resolution should
  be passed by a new Constituent Assembly.
• The 1973 constitution could serve in the interim,
  provided undemocratic amendments are abrogated
• A Constitutional Court should be established to
  protect integrity of new constitution and
  arbitrate over inter-provincial/federal
  relations.
• The concurrent list should be abolished.
• The federal government should have only four
  areas of responsibility foreign policy, defense,
  currency, and communications.
• All remaining areas (including taxation) should
  go to provincial governments.
• FATA and FANA should become part of Pashtunkhwa
  (NWFP).
• The military should have no role or stake in
  politics and public life.
• The armed forces should be restructured and
  should have equal representation from all the
  respective provinces.

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RecommendationsSeparation of Powers

• A structurally imbalanced federation has emerged
  since the separation of East Pakistan.
• Senate must be empowered as a true territorial
  chamber where each province retains equal
  numerical representation.
• Senators should be directly elected by the
  populace.
• Senate must have the power to pass or veto
  budget, defense and monetary bills as well as to
  approve treaties with foreign states.
• All federal appointments must be confirmed by
  Senate committees.
• Non-Muslim Pakistanis should be given
  representation in the Senate.
• A renewed Council of Common Interests should be
  genuinely representative, meet regularly, and
  function according to its mandate of facilitating
  inter-provincial communication and conflict
  resolution.

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RecommendationsProvincial Autonomy

• Provinces should enjoy full provincial autonomy
  in accordance with 1940 resolution
• All indigenous languagesPunjabi, Sindhi,
  Pushto, Balochi, Siraiki, Hindko and
  othersshould be granted the status of national
  languages.
• Urdu and English should remain the official
  languages of communication.
• Provincial governments should be able to devise
  and implement education and language policies
  according to their own preferences.
• District Government System should be abolished
  and the previous municipal system should be
  restored to its true spirit and form.
• Either the office of the Governor should be
  abolished or the constitutional powers of
  governors should be curtailed (specifically the
  right to dismiss the provincial assemblies and
  governments).
• The state has no constitutional or moral right to
  redraw the geographical boundaries of provinces
  against the wishes of the indigenous people.

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RecommendationsFiscal Redistribution (NFC)

• National Finance Commission awards should not be
  distributed solely on the basis of population
• Instead, the allocation of NFC awards should be
  decided through an index of the following
  criteria
• population
• revenue-generation capacity
• disparities in development as measured by the
  Human Development Index (HDI), inequality (GINI
  coefficient), and incidence of poverty in the
  provinces
• level of per-capita income in comparison with
  other provinces
• The Central Board of Revenue should be abolished
  in favor of the establishment of a Provincial
  Board of Revenue

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RecommendationsResource Exploitation and
Royalties

• Resource control should lie completely in the
  hands of provinces.
• 30 of the royalty from fossil fuels should be
  given to the center
• 20 of the royalty from fossil fuels should be
  given to the resource-producing districts
• The remaining 50 should remain in the provinces.
• According to international law on water-sharing,
  lower riparian areas have the right to veto any
  diversions of water from major rivers and
  tributaries.
• Further cuts and diversions through dams, canals
  and barrages on the Indus River must gain the
  approval of lower riparian areas.
• Upstream mega-water projects should be shelved.

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Conclusion

• True federalism offers the most democratic system
  to govern Pakistans diverse array of
  nationalities and communities.
• Democratic resolution of intra-state conflicts
  and promotion of inter-provincial harmony
• Depoliticizing and ensuring transparency in the
  military
• Protecting language and cultural rights of all
  nationalities and communities
• Providing equitable social justice to
  underdeveloped and marginalized regions,
  nationalities, and communities
• Improve governance in regions threatened by the
  advance of the Taliban
• Maintaining the integrity of the federation based
  on equality and justice

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• Thank You
• Long live the struggle for democracy, peace and
  provincial autonomy in Pakistan!
• jchandio_at_cpcs.org.pk
• www.cpcs.org.pk