Diapositiva 1

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CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti
Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro
Interdipendenze
SANDRO BOLOGNA bologna_at_casaccia.enea.it
CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Portici, 23 Ottobre,
2006
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Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse

• Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, )
• Informazione Comunicazione (reti informatiche e
  di telecomunicazione
• Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali,
  ferroviarie,.)
• Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

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Mutato contesto socio-economico
Financial Services
Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi
praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di
contatto con le altre infrastrutture
Health Care
Telecommunication
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UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF
ELECTRICITY
The UCTE System 2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML
people
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EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE
OVERVIEW ROOT CAUSES
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Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure

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Three Layers Model for the Electrical
Infrastructure
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US CANADA BLACK-OUT
Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report
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CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in
the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
will make use of the latest results on complex
systems theory to analyse the networks property
and to understand the emergent behaviors that can
take place in the network
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in
the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH Recent researches on
large-scale networks make evident of some global
properties which are not pre-specified by network
design and are difficult or impossible to predict
from knowledge of its constituent parts.
(Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,)
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Present limitations of Complex Systems approach
Network as a static graph
Given a network with N nodes and L links
?
Create a graph with statistically identical
topology
RESULT model the static network topology
PROBLEM Real networks are dynamical systems!
Evolving networks
OBJECTIVE capture the network dynamics

• identify the processes that contribute to the
  network topology
• develop dynamical models that capture these
  processes

METHOD
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PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1

• Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di
  Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali,
  Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito
  Latora

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CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
will make use of complementary risk assessment
methods to estimate the probability of unwanted
incident that may lead to undesired states
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links
in the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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Modelling tools for dependability analysis
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PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2

• Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di
  Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca
• Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale,
  Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio

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CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
will make use of analytical approaches to
optimize the network in the presence of different
type of constraints
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in
the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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X
X
RO
MI
Distribution Network
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X
X
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
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PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3

• Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento
  di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica
  Applicata Prof. Ciro DApice
• Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento
  di Ingegneria Informatica,
• Prof. Antonio Chella

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CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
will model the organization and the
operator behaviour to study organizational
vulnerability
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in
the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH Human
Errors
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PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4

• Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata,
  Dipartimento di Ingegneria dellImpresa, Prof.
  Lucio Bianco
• ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca
  sullElaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali
  e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti
  Belardinelli

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will establish probable correlation among
different networks to understand cascading
failures or unknown and emergent behaviours
CRESCO SPIII Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model and Simulation all the
links with the other nets
Organizational Model Organization, operators
behaviour
Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in
the net
State Machine Model and Analysis processes and
links in the net
Telecomunication Infrastructure
Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the
net
National Electrical Power Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure
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Modelling Networked Infrastructures
Interdependencies
Transpor- tation
Electric Power
Natural Gas
Water
Source Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies
Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly 2002
Telecom
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PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5

• Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata",
  Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e
  Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci
• C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per
  lInformatica e lAutomazione Industriale, Prof.
  Giorgio Ventre
• Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di
  Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università
  degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di
  Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)

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National InfrastructureSimulation and Analysis
Center