Effects of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle on the Earth

1
Effects of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle on the
Earths Atmosphere

• Karin Labitzke
• Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin
• Germany
• ( Labitzke and van Loon, numerous papers,
• 1987 2006)

2
INTRODUCTION

• The understanding of natural and anthropogenic
  climate change is an important issue today.
• Here, the influence of the 11-year sunspot
  cycle as a natural variability factor on the
  atmosphere will be discussed.

3
Topics of the lecture are 1) Variability of
the Arctic Winters -- the Sun and the QBO 2)
Influence of the Arctic Winters on the
Tropics and Subtropics 3) Solar signals in
Summer
4
Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs)
Ozone Layer
The LAYERS of the EARTHs ATMOSPHERE (Labitzke
and van Loon, 1999)
5
1 2
3 4
1948 2006 n 59 sigma 8.5 K trend
0.9 K / dec sign. 84
5

3
4
5
2
GWATT, 2
1
GWATT
6
1
2 3
4
1942 - 2006 n 65 Hm 2249,8 dm sigma
458 m trend 1.9 m/dec sign. 5
5
-

5 4 3 1
2
1942 2006 11 gt 1 sigma 12 lt - 1 sigma
1942 1973 6 gt 1 sigma 6 lt - 1 sigma
x
7
SO Cold event Warm event cold and strong (Labitzke and warm and weak van Loon, 1987)
QBO Westphase Eastphase cold and strong (Holton and Tan, 1980 warm and weak 1963-1978, n 18)
SUN Solar min Solar max like QBO (Labitzke van Loon, opposite to QBO 1987 2006)
AO High index () Low index (-) cold and strong (Thomson and warm and weak Baldwin, 2001)
Different forcings influencing the stratospheric
polar vortex during the northern winters
8
red warm event - SO
blue cold event - SO
all n 59 r 0.19 no correlation with
11-year solar cycle
P
P
Ch
CH
A
Tropical volcanoes Agung 1963 Chichon
1982 Pinatubo 1991
A
9
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation QBO Time- height
section of monthly mean zonal winds (m/s) at
equatorial stations Canton Island (3S / 172W)
(Jan 1953 Aug 1967) Gan/Maledive Islands (1S
/73E) (Sep 1967 Dec 1975) Singapore (1N
/104E) (since Jan 1976). Isopleths are at 10
m/s intervals, westerlies are shaded (updated
from Naujokat 1986).
(grey west white east) (50 40hPa in Jan
Feb)/4
10
Sunspot number since 850 AD
Courtesy of Solanki et al., 2006
11
(No Transcript)
12
Courtesy Dr. Claus Fröhlich, Space Science Rev.,
2000
13
Percentage UV Radiation Differences between Solar
Maxima and Minima
Solar Maxima more UV radiation
5-8
Wellenlänge (nm)
Data from Lean et al. (1997)
14
Percentage Ozone Variability between Solar Maxima
and Minima
Solar Maxima more UV radiation gt more ozone
Data from 2-D Model (Haigh, 1994)
15
all years (n 59) no correlation with the
solar cycle r 0.19
16
FU-Berlin
QBO east phase
QBO west phase
1958 - 1986

n 16 r 0.78
n 13 r - 0.7
Correlations between 30-hPa Heights and the Solar
Flux
1. 1958-1986 (29y, 3 cy), Labitzke (1987)
17
1958 - 2006
n 27 r 0.68
n 22 r - 0.4
n
gt 95
Correlations between 30-hPa Heights and the Solar
Flux
2. 1958-2006 (49 y) (5 cycles), ( 20 more
years, in blue)
18
REC
QBO west
QBO east
1942 2006
47
42
43
r 0.7 n 36
n 29 r -0.3
gt 99
Correlations between 30-hPa Heights and the Solar
Flux 3) 16 years back 1948 1957 (10 y, red)
1942 1947 (6 y, orange, REC ) (Labitzke et al.,
2006)
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30-hPa Heights February ( 22 24 km)
Correlations Height Differences
(gpm)
solar max solar min
- 400m
East r max 0.61 n 26 95
640m
West r max 0.68 n 33 99
(Labitzke et al., 2006)
February 1948 2006, NCEP/NCAR, n 59 years
20
EAST
WEST
max 0.61 95
max 0.68 99
February 1948 2006, NCEP/NCAR, n 59 years
21
EAST
WEST 640 m
- 400 m
30-hPa heights, differences between
solar max and min
22

• January 2006
• Deviations of
• 30-hPa temps.
• from a long-
• term mean
• (1968-2002)
• blue negative,
• red positive
• anomalies,
• gt 2 sigma

-
-5
-5 -
(east / min intensification of BDC)
23
January 2006 Deviations of 30-hPa temps. from a
long- term mean blue negative, red positive
anomalies, gt 2 sigma (eastphase is colder than
mean, therefore anomalies smaller over equator
24
Deviations of temperatures from a long- term
mean (1968-2002)
blue negative orange positive anoma-
lies, red gt 2 sigma
25
February
Solar MAX QBO WEST Major Warmings are connected
with down welling and warming over the
Arctic, i.e. intensification of the
Brewer-Dobson Circulation, with up welling and
cooling to the south (same for min/east)
km
UV ? ? T
( - )
?
00
26
10.7 cm solar flux (JanFeb) / 2 and Occurrence
of Major Midwinter Warmings 1942 - 2006
x
150
110
MMW in Westphase 10 in max, 0 in min !!
MMW in Eastphase 3 in max, 10 in min
(Labitzke et al., 2006)
max gt150 min lt 110 X omitted
27
Major Midwinter Warmings in Jan/Feb connected with Warm Events (WE) or Blocking (1942 2006) SOLAR Minimum (lt110 s.f.) SOLAR Maximum (gt150 s.f.) Major Midwinter Warmings in Jan/Feb connected with Warm Events (WE) or Blocking (1942 2006) SOLAR Minimum (lt110 s.f.) SOLAR Maximum (gt150 s.f.) Major Midwinter Warmings in Jan/Feb connected with Warm Events (WE) or Blocking (1942 2006) SOLAR Minimum (lt110 s.f.) SOLAR Maximum (gt150 s.f.) Major Midwinter Warmings in Jan/Feb connected with Warm Events (WE) or Blocking (1942 2006) SOLAR Minimum (lt110 s.f.) SOLAR Maximum (gt150 s.f.) Major Midwinter Warmings in Jan/Feb connected with Warm Events (WE) or Blocking (1942 2006) SOLAR Minimum (lt110 s.f.) SOLAR Maximum (gt150 s.f.)
Warm Event Blocking Warm Event Blocking/ Atlantic
W E S T 02/03 J (middle) 69/70 J 57/58 F 90/91 F 88/89 F (CE) 80/81 F 78/79 F (CE) 67/68 J (CE) 59/60 F 48/49 F 46/47 F
EAST 86/87 J F 76/77 J 72/73 F 65/66 F 51/52 F 41/42 F 05/06 J F 03/04 J 84/85 J 62/63 F 00/01 F 70/71 J 56/57 F
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10.7 cm solar flux (JanFeb) / 2 , Occurrence of
Major Midwinter Warmings and Cold Polar
Vortices, 1942 - 2006
C
x
C
C
C
C
150
110
C
MMW in Westphase 10 in max, 0 in min !!
MMW in Eastphase 3 in max, 10 in min
(Labitzke et al., 2006) ( cold winter)
max gt150 min lt 110 X omitted
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CH P
A
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E QBO eastphase
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TELECONNECTIONS

• In the period 1942 2006 (n 65)
• 26 MMWs (in Jan/Feb) 40 of all
• 28 cold winters 43 of all
• (N. Pole Jan/Feb lt -75 / lt -70)
• 83 of all Arctic winters
• determined the teleconnections between
• the Arctic
• and the Tropics and Subtropics.

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Conclusion for the Winter
The magnitude of the solar signal is analyzed on
the time - scale of 11 years. To find the solar
signal, it is necessary to introduce the
different phases of the QBO. Emphasis is put on
the Major Midwinter Warmings (MMWs), i.e. an
intensification of the Brewer Dobson Circulation,
and on the Cold Winters in the Stratosphere over
the Arctic, (i.e., a weakening of the BDC) and it
is shown that their influence reaches well into
the Summer (Southern) Hemisphere.
32

• We suggest that the effect of the solar
  variability influences the diabatic meridional
  circulation over the tropics and subtropics,
  namely the Hadley Circulation in the troposphere
  and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the
  stratosphere.
• 83 of the Arctic winters determine the
  teleconnection between the Arctic and the Tropics
  and Subtropics through MMWs and Cold Vortices,
  respectively.

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July, Northern Summer, the dynamically least
disturbed season
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Extra for Japan
all r 0.7 max
temp. diff. max - min
east r 0.89 max
west r 0.61 max sigma/30N 0.8 K
x
shaded red r gt 0.5 shaded blue t-diff gt
1 K
35
east
west
r 0.85, Tdiff 2.2 K r 0.39, Tdiff
0.8 K
(near Nagasaki) (Chichon March
82/ east Pinatubo June 91/east )
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near Nagasaki
all r 0.57 east r 0.85 west r 0.39
(1968 2006, n 39)
Ch
37
July, 1968 2005 Detrended Temperature
Correlations (NCEP/NCAR)
East n 18 r max 0.86 gt 99
10
32 km
West n 20 r max 0.57
200
90N
(4 solar cycles)
(Labitzke 2003, updated)
38
Temperature Differences, July, 1968 - 2005
East n 18 tropical warming downwelling
weakening of Brewer-Dobson C.
3
West n 20
(-)
Intensification of Hadley Circulation? More
convection over equator?

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JULY
Solar Max QBO EAST
Tropical warming indicates downwelling,
i.e. weakening of BDC this leads to a
colder polar vortex in the winter
hemisphere (same with solar min/west,
this leads to very cold polar winters)
(-)
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Summary for the Summer Part
Japan is a very suitable region to study the
solar signal during the summer season.
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Thank you for your attention
43
(1942 2006)
significance gt 99
44
Late Winter Cooling
T/min -- 77C
17 March 2006 10-hPa map
45
March 2006 Deviations of 30-hPa Temps. from a
long- term mean blue negative, red
positive anomalies, gt 2 sigma
46
Tropical warming, downwelling, weakening of
BDC this leads to a colder polar vortex
March 2006 Deviations of 30-hPa Temps. from a
long- term mean blue negative, red positive
anomalies, gt 2 sigma
47
Why is the Variability of the Arctic
Stratosphere in Winter so important?

• Karin Labitzke
• Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin
• Germany
• ( Labitzke and van Loon, numerous papers,
• 1987 2006)

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References Labitzke, K., 1987 Sunspots, the QBO,
and the stratospheric temperatures in the north
polar region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 14,
535-537. Labitzke, K. and H. van Loon, 1988
Associations between the 11-year solar cycle, the
QBO and the atmosphere. Part I The troposphere
and stratosphere in the northern hemisphere
winter. J. Atmos. Terr. Physics, 50, 197-206. van
Loon, H. and K. Labitzke, 1994 The 10-12 year
atmospheric oscillation. Review article. Meteor.
Z., 3, 259-266. Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon,
1999 The Stratosphere Phenomena, History, and
Relevance. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New
York, 179 pp. van Loon, H. and K. Labitzke, 2000
The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the
stratosphere below 30 km A review. Space
Sci.Rev.,94, 259-278. Labitzke, K., 2003 The
global signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the
atmosphere When do we need the QBO? Meteor. Z.,
12, 209-216. Labitzke, K., 2005 On the solar
cycle-QBO relationship a summary. J. Atmos.
Sol.-Terr.Phys., 67, 45-54. van Loon, H.,
G.A.Meehl, J.M.Arblaster, 2004 A decadal solar
effect in the tropics in July August. J. Atmos.
Sol.-Terr. Phys., 66, 1767- 1778. Labitzke, K.,
M. Kunze and S. Brönnimann, 2006 Sunspots, the
QBO, and the stratosphere in the north polar
region 20 years later. Meteor. Z., 15, 355-363.
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Holton, 1995, J. G. R.