Assessing Risk of Sexual Re-offenses by Sex Offenders

1
Assessing Risk of Sexual Re-offenses by Sex
Offenders

• A Training Program by the
• Capital District Coalition for Sex Offender
  Management
• Richard Hamill, Ph.D.
• July 12, 2005

2
Comprehensive Approaches to Sex Offender
Management

• Five critical disciplines
• Investigation (law enforcement, CPS)
• Prosecution
• Community Supervision (probation, parole)
• Treatment (specialized sex offender services)
• Victim Advocates

3
Goals for this workshop

• Probation Officers will learn to predict more
  accurately the degree to which a sex offender is
  likely to commit another sex offense.
• When included in the pre-sentence investigation
  report, the risk assessment provides the judge
  with critical information, as well as a rationale
  to support suggested sentences and conditions.

4
Overview of the workshop

• 1. What we know about sex offenses
• 2. Types of sex offenders
• 3. Assessing risk of sexual recidivism
• 4. Using the Static-99
• 5. Presenting the Static-99 in reports
• 6. Questions and answers

5
What we know about child sexual abuse

• 1. By the time he or she is eighteen years old,
  one in every 4 girls and one in every 6 or 7
  boys has been the victim of a hands-on
  (contact) sex offense.
• 2. Young children (ages 0 to 5 years old) are the
  fastest growing class of sexual abuse victim.
• 3. Sexual abuse often creates significant, even
  life-long problems for victims and loved ones
• 4. Multidisciplinary, collaborative approach is
  required for effective intervention.

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Not All Sex Offenders Are The Same

• Victim preferences
• Behavior preferences
• Motivation for offending
• Attitudes towards deviant behavior
• Risk to re-offend
• Supervision and treatment needs

7
What we know about sex offenders

• 1. There are many different types of sex
  offenders.
• 2. Each type has a different rate of
  re-offending,
• and prognosis for change.
• 3. Treatment cuts recidivism by about 50.
• 4. If treatment is not provided, sex offender
  sexual re-offense rates are
• 14 convicted of a sexual re-offense within 5
  years
• 20 convicted of a sexual re-offense within 10
  years
• 24 convicted of a sexual re-offense within 15
  years

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Gender (Vermont Probation Parole, 2003)
98 of known sex offenders are male
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Victims Age at Time of First Assault
Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in
America.
Age of
Victims
10
Relationship Between Victims and OffendersTjaden
Thoennes (2000)
90 66
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Degree of Physical Injury Kilpatrick, Edmunds,
Seymour (1992). Rape in America.
12
Reporting of Sexual AbuseKilpatrick et al.
(2003). National Survey of Adolescents.
86 not reported to the authorities
some cases reported to more than one authority
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What Are Victims Greatest Concerns? Kilpatrick,
Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.
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(No Transcript)
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Victims and Victimization HistoryHindman
Peters (2001)
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Common Childhood Experience of Sex Offenders

• Harmful sexual experiences
• Poor parent-child attachments
• Antisocial parental influences
• Physical and emotional abuse
• Deviant masturbatory conditioning

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Crossover Offending
______________________________________ Issues
crossover definitions order of progression
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Sexual Re-offense Rates Officialrates based
on Harris Hanson (2004) Estimated rates
based on Hanson, Morton, Harris (2003)10
samples n4,724
Percent
14
20
24
27
25
35
40
45
Years in Community
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Explanations and Preconditionsfor Sexual
Offending Cumming McGrath (2004) Finkelhor
(1984,1986)
1 2
3
Motives Willingness
Opportunity

• Sexual Interest
• Emotional Closeness
• Power and Control
• Anger/Grievance

• Planned -
• Opportunistic
• Manipulation -
• Force

• Cognitive Distortions
• Substance Abuse
• Stress
• Psychopathy
• Other

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Motivation for Sexual Offending

• 1. Need for Power / Control
• 2. Need for Intimacy
• 3. Need to Vent Anger
• 4. Need to Feel Competent
• 5. Need for Sexual Gratification
• 6. Curiosity (juvenile sex offenders only)

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Hanson et al., Meta-Analysis (2002)(15 studies
using current treatments over 4-5 years)
Percent Recidivism
51
32
17
10
(41 reduction) (37 reduction)

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Vermont Incarcerated Programs Example of
Risk/Need Matching
DD/MI Services
23
Vermont Community Programs Example of Risk/Need
Matching

• Individualized
• Assessment
• LSI-R
• RRASOR
• Static-99
• TPS
• VASOR
• (PCL-R)
• (VRAG)

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Psychophysiological Assessment Methods Community
Programs for Male and Female Adults
1986-2002McGrath, Cumming, Burchard (2003)
Percent of programs
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Pharmacological TreatmentPrograms for Adult
Males McGrath, Cumming, Burchard (2003)
Percent of programs
26
Impact of Aftercare ServicesGordon Packard
(1998)
Recidivism Rate at 5-year Follow-up
25
15
8
2
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Sex offender treatment

• What we know
• Treatment reduces re-offense rate by 40-60
• Treatment is not effective for all sex offenders
• About one-third of sex offenders are NOT
  motivated to stop committing sex offenses
• However, the treatment process does give us much
  more insight about offender modus operandi,
  strategies, triggers, level of risk to the
  community
• Some failures also help keep the community safer

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Unique Aspects of Sex Offender Treatment

• Treatment team is the probation/parole officer
  and the therapist
• Unrestricted Release of Information for
  probation/parole officer and therapist
• Immediate notification of P.O. if offender shifts
  into elevated risk of re-offending
• Goal Incapacitate before re-offense (VOP, rehab
  program)

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Three components of treatment

• (1) Relapse Prevention model
• sexual offending similar to an addiction
• stress abstinence, not cure
• cognitive-behavioral focuses on feelings,
  beliefs (cognitive distortions), stimuli and
  behaviors
• identify triggers for elevated risk, details of
  offense cycle, effective safety plan
• enhance empathy for victims
• enhance motivation for remaining abstinent

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Treatment of sex offenders

• (2) Life skills development
• anger-management skills (esp. rapists)
• relationship-building / intimacy skills
• skills for living with SORA, the s.o. label
• vocational skills
• communication skills
• assertiveness training
• communication of feelings

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Treatment of sex offenders

• (3) Resolution of the effects of ones own
  abuse / neglect
• personal histories characterized by
• childhood sexual abuse (especially preferential
  sex offenders),
• physical abuse (especially rapists, use- of-force
  sex offenders)
• exposure to domestic violence (especially
  rapists),
• Neglect / chaotic family system

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Summary

• Community safety depends on
• successful law enforcement investigation
• effective prosecution
• effective correctional system programs
• community supervision using strategies specific
  to sex offenders
• community-based sex offender treatment
• keeping awareness of impact on the victim

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• What we know about sex offenders

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TYPES OF SEX OFFENSES

• Three clusters of sex offenses
• Contact, use of force (rape)
• Contact, use of non-force strategies
  (molestation)
• Non-contact offenses (exposing, voyeurism,
  obscene phone calls, sexual harassment)

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Types of rapists

• Rapists (Prentky and Knight typology)
• 
  Prognosis
• 1. Opportunistic fair-good
• 2. Pervasively angry fair
• 3. Sexualized poor-fair
• 4. Vindictive fair

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Types of child molesters(F.B.I. Behavioral
Sciences typology)

• Situational Prognosis
• 1. Compensating very good
• 2. Psychopaths poor
• 3. Normalized fair-good
• 4. Sexualized poor-fair
• Preferential
• - 1. Seductive fair
• - 2. Inadequate poor-fair
• - 3. Sadistic poor

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Types of rapists (Use of Force)

• Four types based on motivation
• (1) Opportunistic type
• Take advantage of opportunities open to them.
• Typically, self-centered, risk-takers.
• Prognosis fair-to-good
• (2) Pervasively angry type
• Rape is strategy to vent pent-up anger
• History of other anger-motivated crimes
• Prognosis fair-to-poor

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Types of rapists

• (3) Sexual type
• Rape is committed as way of meeting sexual needs
• Person has sexual attraction to rape
• Two sub-types Sadistic and Non-sadistic
• Sadistic offenses usually longer duration, often
  include extensive threats designed to create
  fear physical incapacitation, infliction of pain
• Non-sadistic rapes Force is used as strategy to
  accomplish the rape
• Prognosis is poor-to-fair. Work to incarcerate.

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Types of rapists

• (4) Vindictive type
• Rape victim is person toward whom they feel anger
• Rape is punishment, or attempt to re-establish
  sense of personal power or control
• Typical victims partners, former partners
• Prognosis fair

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Types of Child Molesters

• Based on the work of Ken Lanning (F.B.I.
  Behavioral Sciences unit)
• Two large clusters of child molesters
• Situational (non-fixated)
• Preferential (fixated)

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Situational child molesters

• Four types of situational child molesters
• (1) Compensating (regressed) type
• primarily intra-familial victims (incest)
• exploit their authority as parents and/or adults
• use non-violent strategies, like seduction
• generally have a good response to treatment

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Situational child molesters

• (2) Psychopaths
• 0.5 of the population 5 of child molesters
• without conscience
• victims chosen by availability, vulnerability
• strategies luring, manipulation may use force
• respond poorly to treatment, require incarceration

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Situational child molesters

• Normalized type
• life-long pattern, inter-generational
• almost 100 are victims of childhood sexual abuse
• sexual offending is an almost continuous pattern
• victims are often family and friends
• fair response to treatment

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Situational child molesters

• Sexualized type
• multiple paraphilias present
• wide range of sexual behavior
• victims based on availability
• motivation is to offset boredom
• strategy abuse embedded into an on-going
  activity
• treatment is difficult fair-to-poor prognosis

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Preferential child molesters

• Have a strong sexual preference for children
• These fixated child molesters are considered
  stuck at a young stage in their own sexual
  development
• Pedophiles strong sexual preference for
  children under the age of puberty
• Hebephiles strong sexual preference for
  children at or just above onset of puberty

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Preferential child molesters

• Three types identified
• (1) Seductive type
• very child-oriented highly identified with
  children
• use of non-violent strategies, like seduction
• strong age and gender preferences
• 50 prefer boys, 25 prefer girls, 25 both
• treatment is difficult prognosis is poor

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Preferential child molesters

• Inadequate type
• two subtypes psychiatric condition, mental
  deficiency
• often socially isolated w/ poor social skills
• impulse control often poor
• victim choice often indiscriminant
• offenses are sexual only, often non-verbal
• prognosis is limited medication helps

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Preferential child molesters

• Sadistic type
• strong arousal to inflicting pain
• strong age and gender preferences
• strategies include rape, kidnapping, murder
• concurrent psychiatric problems
• treatment prognosis is very poor, risk level very
  high. Work to incarcerate.

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Stage model for molestation

• Five stages
• 1. Engagement grooming behaviors
• 2. Sexual interaction progression along the
  continuum to more intrusive acts
• 3. Secrecy strategies
• 4. Disclosure Accidental or purposeful
• 5. Retraction
• (by Suzanne Sgroi, M.D.)

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Juvenile sex offenders

• Include all of the above types, as well as
• Curiosity-motivated
• young juveniles
• usually awkward, naïve
• motivation is to satisfy curiosity about sex
• severity of abuse may escalate over time
• good response to treatment, especially if parents
  are willing to become involved

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Female sex offenders

• Make up about 7-8 of all convicted sex
  offenders, thought to be under-represented due to
  differential reporting and prosecution.
• Four types identified
• Normalized
• Male coerced victim / offender
• Inadequate
• Lover / teacher seductive (preferential)

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Female sex offenders

• Normalized type
• life-long pattern of sexual acting out
• family and friends are most likely victims
• almost all are victims of childhood sexual abuse
• difficult to treat successfully

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Female sex offenders

• Male-coerced victim - offender
• sex is coerced by male partner, at least
  initially
• woman seen as both victim and offender
• victims are those imposed by male perpetrator
• treatment prognosis is good

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Female sex offenders

• Inadequate type
• often mentally disordered or mentally delayed
• poor coping skills, poor social skills
• alcohol abuse/dependence over-represented
• victims are often family members
• prognosis is fair medication helps

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Female sex offenders

• Lover / teacher seductive type
• usually child-oriented, identified with the child
• age and gender preferences
• strategies seduction and teaching
• may include preferential-type sex offenders
  (pedophiles, hebephiles)

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Non-contact sex offenders

• Includes exposing, voyeurs (Peeping Toms),
  sexual harassment, obscene phone calls, etc..
  (Paraphilic behaviors)
• If an individual is engaging in one of these
  activities, there is an 88 likelihood that he is
  also engaging in at least one other paraphilic
  behavior.
• Polygraph studies show that many of these
  offenders also have contact sex offenses.

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Evaluation of sex offenders

• Aspects of a specialized sex offender eval
• (1) Review of background documentation,
  including victim statements
• (2) Interviews of offender
• (3) Interviews of collateral sources
• (4) Psychological testing
• Self-report tests
• Actuarial tests

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Evaluation of sex offenders

• (5) Testing of sexual interests
• Penile plethysmograph
• Viewing time measures
• (6) Polygraph testing
• Instant offense polygraph
• History of sexual offending polygraph
• Compliance with Conditions of Probation/Parole

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Evaluation of sex offenders

• Risk Assessment
• Several measures found to do a fairly good job in
  predicting
• risk of sexual re-offense (Static-99, RRASOR)
• risk of general re-offense (LSI)
• risk of violent re-offense (VRAG)

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Predicting things is difficult,especially when
theyre in the future.
Yogi Berra
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ATSA Guidelines (2005)

• 18.07
• Members conducting risk assessments use an
  actuarial risk assessment instrument that is
  appropriate for the client population
  being evaluated (p. 16).

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Risk Instruments in Programs for Adult
MalesMcGrath, Cumming, Burchard (2003)
381 of 613 programs (62.1) use one or more of
these instruments
20.7 34.4 5.4
53.2 9.1
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Risk Principle 2-Year Sexual or Violent
Re-ConvictionsFriendship, Mann, Beech (2003)
Percent
Static-99 Risk Category
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Types of Risk Assessment Strategies

• Intuitive
• Clinical
• Actuarial
• Adjusted Actuarial

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Advantages of Actuarial Approach

• Objectivity
• Uniformity
• Consistency
• Equality

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Static Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson
Bussiere, 1998 Hanson Morton-Bourgon, 2004)
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Risk Prediction Methods for Adults
Predictive Validity by Offense Type
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Static-99Hanson Thornton (1999)

• Prior Sex Offenses
• Prior Sentencing Dates
• Non-Contact Offenses
• Index Non-sexual Violence
• Prior Non-sexual Violence
• Unrelated Victim
• Stranger Victim
• Male Victim
• Young
• Single

Items on RRASOR
69
Static-99Hanson Thornton (1999)
Percent Sexual Recidivism
Score ( of Sample)
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Static-99 Sexual Recidivism Percentages
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Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism(Hanson
Morton-Bourgon, 2004)
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Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism(Hanson
Morton-Bourgon, 2004)
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Static - 99

• Purpose To estimate the probability of sexual
  and violent recidivism.
• Who do I use it on
• ADULT MALE offenders who have been convicted
  of at least one sex offense against a child or
  adult.
• Who should I NOT use it on?
• Youth (under eighteen years old at time of
  release)
• Females
• Offenders convicted of possession/dissemination
  of child pornography
• Offenses related to prostitution (soliciting,
  pimping)

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Item 1 Prior sex offense convictions / charges

• To be considered a sex offense, the crime does
  not need to be sex offense per se.
• Examples
• Unlawful Imprisonment (kidnapping), if the
• intent was to commit a rape,
• Burglary, if the intent was to steal underwear
  or other fetish items
• Criminal Trespassing, if the intent was
  voyeuristic (Peeping Tom) activity

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Item 1 Prior sex offense convictions / charges

• Sexual Misbehavior is divided into two
  categories
• Category A includes sexual behavior with minors
  or non-consenting adults
• Category B includes sexual behavior that is
  illegal, but
• (1) the parties are consenting (e.g.,
  consensual sex in public place)
• OR
• (2) there is no specific victim involved
  (e.g., possession of child pornography,
  failure to register as a sex offender).

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Item 1 Prior sex offense convictions / charges

• The Index offense is the most recent sex
  offense (charge or conviction)
• For sex offenses to be counted separately, the
  second offense must have been committed after the
  offender was charged with the first offense
• Historical offenses detected after conviction are
  not counted as prior offenses

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Item 1 Prior sex offense convictions / charges

• Score is based on either the number of
  convictions or number of charges stemming from
  sexual misbehavior, whichever is higher
• None 0
• 1 conviction / 1-2 charges 1
• 2-3 convictions / 3-5 charges 2
• 4 convictions / 6 charges 3

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Item 2 Prior sentencing dates

• Count the number of distinct occasions that the
  offender has been sentenced for any criminal
  offense.
• Index offense is not counted.
• Violations are not counted only misdemeanor or
  felony (criminal) offenses
• Scoring
• 3 or fewer 0
• 4 or more 1

79
Item 3 Any convictions for non-contact sex
offenses

• Includes convictions for non-contact sex offenses
  such as exhibitionism (exposing), obscene phone
  calls, possession of child pornography,
  voyeuristic acts, fetish burglary
• Count convictions only, not charges
• Scoring
• None 0
• One or more 1

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Item 4 Index offense any non-sexual violence

• Convictions for violent acts which occurred in
  the commission of the index offense (e.g.,
  Assault, conviction stemming from use of a
  weapon).
• Scoring
• No 0
• Yes 1

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Item 5 Prior non-sexual violence

• Any conviction stemming from a violent act, prior
  to the index offense
• Scoring
• No 0
• Yes 1

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Item 6 Any unrelated victim

• A related victim is one where the relationship
  would be sufficiently close that marriage would
  normally be prohibited (e.g., parent, uncle,
  grandparent, step-sister)
• Spouses (inc. common-law) are related
• Step-relationships less than 2 years are
  considered unrelated.
• Scoring
• No 0
• Any unrelated victim 1

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Item 7 Any stranger victim

• A victim is considered a stranger if the victim
  did not know the offender 24 hours before the
  offense.
• Scoring
• No 0
• Any stranger victim 1

84
Item 8 Any male victim

• Include any sex offense involving a male victim
• Do NOT count possession of child pornography
• Do NOT count exposing to mixed groups of children
  UNLESS there is evidence that the offender was
  targeting boys.
• Scoring
• No 0
• Any male victim 1

85
Item 9 Young

• Refers to sex offenders age at the time of the
  risk assessment.
• Note that Static-99 applies only to sex offenders
  who are over 18 years old at the time they are
  being rated.
• Scoring
• Age 25 or older 0
• Age 18 to 24.99 years 1

86
Item 10 Single

• Offender is considered single if he has never
  lived with an adult lover for more than two
  years.
• Cohabitation must be continuous, with the same
  person.
• Person must have had the opportunity to live with
  a lover.
• Male lovers in prison do not count.
• Scoring
• Yes 0
• No 1

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Translating Static-99 score into risk categories

• Risk Level Score 5 10 15
• at 10 years yrs yrs yrs
• Low 0 5 11 13
• 1 6 7 7
• Low-moderate 2 9 13 16
• 3 12 14 19
• High-moderate 4 26 31 36
• 5 33 38 40
• High 6 39 45 52

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Reporting the Static-99 Score

• John scored a 3, so is at low-moderate risk.
• You CANNOT report that he has a risk of
• re-offending of 12 percent at five years,
• 14 percent at ten years, and 19 percent at 15
  years.

89
Reporting the Static-99 Score

• You CAN write
• John scored a 3 on the Static-99, which places
  him in the low-moderate risk category. Of the
  sex offenders with this score, some 12 percent
  were re-convicted for a sex offense within 5
  years, 14 percent were re-convicted of a sex
  offense within ten years, and a total of 19
  percent were re-convicted of a sex offense within
  fifteen years.

90
Sexual Re-offense Rates Officialrates based
on Harris Hanson (2004) Estimated rates
based on Hanson, Morton, Harris (2003)10
samples n4,724
Percent
14
20
24
27
25
35
40
45
Years in Community
91
Reporting the Static-99 Score

• You can add
• The research suggests that the actual
  re-offense rate is about fifteen percent higher
  than the re-conviction rate by the ten year mark.
  This suggests that, for sex offenders with this
  score, approximately 29 percent have committed
  another sex offense within ten years.

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(No Transcript)
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For further assistance

• Contact the Capital District Coalition for Sex
  Offender Management, at
• CDCSOM.com
• [phone]
• or the Canadian website, at
• www.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca
• Click English
• Click Corrections
• Click Publications