POLICY ARGUMENTS

1
(No Transcript)
2
POLICY ARGUMENTS
3
Policy Arguments and Decision Making

• Identify the problem to be resolved.
• Identify the underlying causes of the problem.
• Identify the goals that need to be reached in
  order to solve the problem.
• Identify (or invent) policies that would
  accomplish the goals.
• Evaluate each policy in terms of its
  effectiveness in reaching the goals.
• Select the best policy.

4
Arguing policies

• Arguing that there is a problem to be addressed
  and resolved.
• Stating the goals that should be reached in order
  to resolve the problem.
• Stating the policy (its mechanism, etc).
• 4. Arguing that the implementation of that
  policy will accomplish the desired goals

5
Identifying Needs and Problems

• Problem Description Disparity
• Harm
• The magnitude of the problem how serious is the
  problem?
• Duration and trends How persistent is the
  problem? Is it stable, increasing, or
  declining?
• The Scope

6
Problem Causation

• Knowing the causes of a problem is often the same
  as having a solution.
• The question of causation is a question of
  culpability. Who is at fault? What or whom
  should we blame?

7
Causes

• Structural
• Attitudinal
• Accidental

8
Finding / Inventing solutions

• There are two methods of curing the mischief
  the one, by removing its causes the other, by
  controlling its effects.
• Madison in The Federalist No. 10 on the problem
  of political factions

9
What are you proposing to do?

• Are you addressing causes or symptoms of the
  problem?
• What behaviors are to be enacted that are not
  presently being enacted?

10
Reviewing existing policies

• Policy is more like an endless game of Monopoly
  than a sewing machine repair The action we
  commonly call new policies are really
  somebodys next move

11
Proposing a policy

• Explaining the mechanism of the policy
• Is the policy feasible and workable?
• Is the policy enforceable?
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Does the policy have unintended effects?
• The question of Should versus Would

12
Mechanism / Feasibility

• How it is going to work?
• Is the solution available and acceptable?

13
Financing

• How are you planning to pay for it?
• Is the solution affordable?
• Who will benefit from the policy? Who will pay
  the costs?

14
Enforcement

• What means are used to ensure compliance?

15
Expected results

• Does the policy eliminate the causes (or only
  symptoms) of the problem?
• Does the policy have unintended effects?
• Is the policy workable in the long run?

16
(No Transcript)
17
Propositions of Fact
18
Why People Believe Weird Things

• By Michael Shermer

19
Weird beliefs (Harris Poll 2007)

• 51 of the public believe in ghosts
• 30 believe in astrology
• 27 believe in reincarnation - that they were
  once another person
• 35 believe in faith healing and communication
  with the dead
• 30 believe in magnetic therapy

20
more from Harris Poll

• 53 of American adults were unaware that the last
  dinosaur died before the first human arose
• Only 50 of adults knew that the Earth orbits the
  sun and takes a year to do it
• 55 of Americans dont know that the first homo
  sapiens are dated about 100,000-200,000 years
  ago.

21
Americans aged 18 to 24

• 30 cannot find Iraq on a map
• 50 cannot identify New York state on a map
• 33 couldnt locate Louisiana on a map
• 50 were unable to identify Mississippi
• 50 didnt know when the Civil War was fought
• 25 thought that Christopher Columbus sailed to
  the New World sometime after 1750, not in 1492

22
Propositions of fact are verifiable

• a proposition is verifiable if its truth could be
  established.
• a proposition can be considered verifiable if it
  is possible to show that the proposition is
  probable

23
Stock issues in building a case for a
proposition of fact

• The evidence and reasoning establishing the
  truth or probability of a proposition of fact
• Methods
• Observation,
• Experiment,
• Testimony.

24
Observable facts and Theoretical constructs.

• Observable facts Direct observations
• and Indirect observations (circumstantial
  evidence)
• Theoretical constructs are used to explain the
  raw data we observe are verified by
  observations and experiments

25
Propositions of value

• 1. Stating the claim/proposition.
• 2. Establishing the criteria for the evaluative
  component.
• 3. Applying the criteria.
• 4. Verifying whether the applied criteria
  correspond to facts.

26
1. Claim FDR was one of the greatest
presidents in the U.S. history.

• 2. Criteria for greatness Great presidents (a)
  have a vision, (b) are realists, (c) can build a
  national consensus, etc.
• 3. Applying the criteria to FDR Is it true
  that FDR had a vision, was a realist, built a
  national consensus, etc.?
• 4. Verification Can it be proven that FDR had
  a vision?