Land Use and Transportation Models

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Land Use and Transportation Models

• G111/211a
• Draft Notes

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New era

• Policies aim at more complex processes
• Sustainability is becoming increasingly more
  popular possibly accepted practice(?!)
• Cause and effects between transportation and land
  use are not one-way linear sequences
• Short, medium, and long term relationships can
  now be modeled using somewhat sophisticated tools
  and fast computers

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CAAA ISTEA - TEA-21
LAND USE
INTEGRATED MODELS AN ACCOUNT FOR TWO WAY
RELATIONSHIPS
AIR QUALITY
TRANSPORTATION
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It is a different and changing policy world
European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, and USA

• Mobility vs Accessibility

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Mobility vs accessibility policies (Kennedy et
al, 2005)
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• Policy Coordination with Packages of Policy
  Actions in the EU
• Effective Governance
• Integration of Policies
• New Needs for Policy Action Assessments
• More Informative Models

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Transportation and Land Use

• Land Development --gt Location Choices
• Location Choices --gt Activities
• Location Choices -? Car Ownership
• Activities -gt Travel
• Travel -gt Flows
• Flows -gt Activity Patterns
• Use Spatial Distribution
• AND MANY MORE
• See next

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Example Mobility as Transit Mobility

• Use land use to increase transit use (TCRP study)

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Seven Groups of Factors (12/7)

• Increase Residential Density
• Activity locations closer to each other
• Transit service more economical
• Other factors need to be considered

• Neighborhood Design
• Mixed land use
• Transit friendly designs (think of turning
  radius)
• Mode separation
• Size!

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Seven Groups of Factors (34/7)

• Transit Supply
• Situational barriers
• System Service (availability, frequency,
  timing/flexibility)
• Knowledge/information
• Negative predisposition
• Cost/time/comfort

• Car Ownership
• Number of cars
• Types of cars
• Specialization more use?
• Costs (perceived and real)

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Seven Groups of Factors (56/7)

• Socioeconomics
• Age
• Gender
• Income
• Employment/Occupation
• Social Role

• Workplace/Employment Density
• Bring the CBD back!
• High density suburban centers
• Campus examples
• Parking?

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The Seventh Factor

• Accessibility
• Connectivity
• Amount of activities
• Closeness

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These factors are not acting alone mediation!
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Wegeners simplified cycle
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Wegeners LU/T Feedback Cycle
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Lagged Relationships
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Theories

• Spatial Interaction (Distance decay functions)
• Urban Land Markets (Bid rent)
• Waves Theories Urban Life Cycles (Rise and
  Fall)
• Social Ecology (Clusters and specialized centers)
• Action-space analyses -gt optimal space and
  location for activities
• Time-budgets -gt time geography -gt activity-based
  approaches
• NEXT??????

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The Von Thunen Model of Market, Production, and
Distance

• R Y(p-c) Yfm
• R Rent per unit of land.
• Y Yield per unit of land.
• p market price per unit of yield.
• c Average production costs per unit of yield.
• m Distance from market (in kilometers or
  miles).
• f Freight rate per unit of yield and unit of
  distance.
• Assumptions
• Isolation. There is one isolated market in an
  isolated state having no interactions (trade)
  with the outside.
• Ubiquitous land characteristics. The land
  surrounding the market in entirely flat and its
  fertility uniform.
• Transportation. It is assumed there are no
  transport infrastructures such as roads or rivers
  and that farmers are transporting their
  production to the market using horses and carts.
  Transportation costs are dependent of the type of
  commodity being transported to the market as well
  as the distance involved.

http//people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/
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The Isolated State von Thünen, 1826
See also http//www.csiss.org/classics/content/9
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Lessons Learned

• Land Rent
• Distance Decay

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Central Places Christaller, 1933
A Central Place is a settlement or a nodal point
that serves the area around with goods and
services (Mayhew, 1997). Christaller's model also
was based on the premise that all goods and
services were purchased by consumers from the
nearest central place, that the demands placed on
all central places in the plain were similar, and
that none of the central places made any
excessive profit. See http//www.csiss.org/classi
cs/content/67
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Bid-Rent Theory Alonso, 1964
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Example Bid rent theories
Diamond sales in the CBD and agriculture in the
periphery residences obey a somewhat different
law/rule
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Retail Location Huff, 1964
Huff Retail Location Model competitive with
explicit macro-rules see also http//www.belkcoll
ege.uncc.edu/mjkhouja/Locate8.ppt261,10,Single
Facility Location Using Cross Median Approach
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Household Location Park Burgess, 1925
An evolutionary approach to urban ecology
http//www.csiss.org/classics/content/26
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Burgess Model
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Isards Hybrid Model
Note the Corridors of development
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Action Spaces Hägerstrand, 1970
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The Brotchie Triangle
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Interaction travel time Dispersion employment
distance from City centre
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Theoretical Expectations About Relationships
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From Land Use to Transportation
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From Land Use to Transportation
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From Land Use to Transportation
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From Land Use to Transportation
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Better Transportation -gt Better Accessibility

• What happens to land use?

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From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility
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From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility
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From Transportation to Transportation
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From Transportation to Transportation
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From Transportation to Transportation
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Ideal Designs

• Monocentric Compact City
• Polycentric Pockets of Paradise
• Dispersed Development People Driven

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Empirical (Data analysis) Studies

• General findings

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From Land Use to Transport
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From Land Use to Transport
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Be Aware of Selectivity Issues

• People that select city centers different than
  people in suburbs
• People that select to live in large cities
  different than small town dwellers
• Large portions of decision making spheres largely
  neglected school choice, effect of family and
  friends, family endowments, what else?

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From Transportation to Land Use
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From Transportation to Transportation
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MODELS

• Many different time and space resolutions and
  assumptions about behavior

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What we need
See Meyer and Miller chapter 6 And Miller in KG
book
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The Miller model policies and models
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Models in Practice
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Three Main ways to Quantify Land Use Transport
Interactions

• Hypothetically change land use and ask people
  what they will do differently
• Advantages and disadvantages
• Create experiments were we actually change land
  use and observe people behavior
• Advantages and disadvantages
• Build computer simulators with models that show
  these interactions and behavioral changes
• Advantages and disadvantages

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The Models Developed
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Waddells Taxonomy
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Operational and Under Development Land Use Models
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From TRB workshop by Miller based on Knight and
Trygg 1977
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http//ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html
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Dynamics/Lags
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Integration for what?
Meplan source Hunt/Miller TRB workshop
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Idealized Model System (TCRP H-12)
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Design Modeling
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Beyond todays LU/Trans
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Websites

• www.acs.ucalgary.ca/jabraham/ MEPLAN_and_Urban_Ec
  onomics.PDF
• http//www.urbansim.org/
• http//www.modelistica.com/tranus_english.htm
• http//www.mussa.cl/E_index.html
• http//www.civil.engineering.utoronto.ca/English/I
  LUTE-Research.html
• http//www.geosimulation.org/geosim/lutms.htm
• http//www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/Modeling.shtml
• http//ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html

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What else can we change by design?

• Next Models in Practice PROPOLIS Examples