Does Size Matter?

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Does Size Matter? or Does Risk Always Increase
as Vessels Get Larger?
AIMU Seminar 17 May, 2005
James C. Card Senior Vice President Chief
Technology OfficerAmerican Bureau of Shipping
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Outline of Presentation

• History of Vessel Size Increase
• Fundamentals of Marine Risk
• ABS Risk Management Capabilities
• Managing Container Carrier Risk
• Managing LNG Carrier Risk
• Managing FPSO Risk
• Summary

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Maximum Ship Size by Year of Build
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Goal is to Prevent Accidents
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Risk Understanding
Risk fn(Frequency, Consequence)
How likelyis it?
What cango wrong?
What arethe impacts?
Loss Scenario (e.g., fire, collision, loss of
cargo, etc.)
Consequence (e.g., 1MM cargo lost, 3 crew
fatalities, etc.)
Frequency (e.g., 1 in 1000 voyages, 1 in 100
years, etc.)
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What is the Impact of Increased Size on Loss
Scenarios?

• Larger vessels may introduce hazards or failure
  modes not present in standard size designs.
• Past experience, though useful, will not predict
  a complete set of undesirable events.
• Thus,
• Consideration of unwanted events, consequences,
  failure modes and mechanisms is an integral part
  of successful design

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What is the Impact of Increased Size on
Consequences?

• Usually more severe (i.e. more cargo lost, more
  crew and passengers exposed, higher property
  value, higher cost per day of vessel
  unavailability)
• Usually, impact may be estimated by extrapolation

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What is the Impact of Increased Size on
Likelihood?

• May require significant analysis to determine
  impact
• Reduced exposure (e.g., fewer vessels, fewer
  trips) may mean reduced likelihood of loss
  accidents
• Factors such as increased stopping distance,
  reduced visibility, maneuverability, etc. may
  mean increased likelihood of loss accidents
• Likelihood is usually the part of the risk
  equation most easily addressed by implementing
  design or other control features, thus reducing
  overall risk

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What is the impact of Increased Size on Risk?
Risk fn (Consequence, Frequency)
Consequence
Frequency
Size
Size
Risk
Size
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ABS Guide for Review and Approval of Novel
Concepts

• No established Class Rules for Novel Concepts
• Pushing the boundaries of size fits ABS
  definition of novel concept
• Guidance Notes on Review and Approval of Novel
  Concepts
• Engineering
• Testing
• Risk Assessment
• Acceptable level of safety in
• line with current practice

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MegaVessels can Achieve Safety Levels Equivalent
to that of Average Vessels
HighRisk
Casualty of average size vessel
Medium Risk
Increasing Event Likelihood
Casualty of mega size vessel
Low Risk
Increasing Event Severity
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ABS Guide for Review and Approval of Novel
Concepts

• Build a body of evidence to address approval of
  novel features
• Design Assessment Plan
• Aspects for which there are codes / standards
• Aspects, which due to their novelty, require a
  more rigorous approach
• Risk Assessment Plan
• HAZID, FMEA, HAZOP, What-If, etc.
• Input to engineering design
• Identify need for proof / modeling / data
  gathering / refined risk assessment

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Adequate Design Risk Management Eliminates Many
Problems
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Where Are We Now?

• Consideration of unwanted events, consequences,
  failure modes and mechanisms is an integral part
  of successful design
• ABS application of risk management principles for
  large ships
• Container Carriers
• LNG Carriers
• FPSOs

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Concerns with Larger Ships

• Challenges when we push our boundary beyond the
  norm
• Limited relevant engineering and service
  experience
• Uncertainties associated with extrapolation from
  smaller ships
• Unexpected issues associated with innovation
• Challenges in engineering
• Design
• Prediction of loads, strength, acceptance
  criteria
• Visibility
• Maneuverability
• Powering

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Concerns with Large Containerships

• Evolving Features
• Greater capacity
• Higher power
• Increased flare
• Structural flexibility

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Risk Management for Containerships

• ABS Capabilities
• Whipping
• Parametric roll
• Vibration
• Lashings
• Shaft alignment

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ABS Risk Management for-LNG
ABS Technology for LNG covers the Gas
Transportation Chain
Propulsion Vibration
HullMaintenance
Dual Fuel
Containment System Integrity
Collision and Grounding
Terminal Class/Certification
Structural Integrity
Ice Strengthening and Cold Weather Operations
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ABS Risk Management for -LNG

• Most critical aspect of most modern large LNG
  tankers is sloshing in partially filled cargo
  tanks
• ABS developing breakthrough technology in
  Membrane Containment System Design - Simulation
  and experimental testing leading to more
  operational flexibility without
  compromising safety integrity

• Technology activity will lead to another industry
  first - Guide for Strength Assessment of LNG
  Containment Systems

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Simulation of LNG Carrier Collision
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FPSO - Ship or offshore structure?
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ABS Risk Management for FPSO
Conversions of existing single hull tankers to
FPSOs - unique concerns

• Remaining structural life
• Strength to accommodate new features
• Oil processing system hazards

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ABS Risk Management for FPSO
Purpose built FPSOs present new challenges

• Shift design criteria to offshore philosophy
• Risk based inspection
• Complex production systems

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Summary

• Risks in marine transportation and offshore
  operations can be identified and managed
• ABS addresses systematically risk in new marine
  concepts including much larger vessels

Its not the size of the ship that determines the
risk to safety, but the size of the risk that
determines the safety of the ship
Its not the size of the dog in the fight, its
the size of the fight in the dog