Population

1
Population

• ? Introduction to Population Analysis
• ? Population Dynamics
• ? Scenario Analysis
• ? Quiz Questions

2

• ? This chapter deals with population which is
  one of the core dynamics within the scenario
  analysis of the International Futures program
• ? Population is a key player in any model trying
  to create a reasonable prediction of the future
  with a given date set of indicators and
  parameters
• ? One the next slides you will see two graphical
  representations of the worlds population growth
  for the next fifty years. Notice that in the
  year 2050 the high and low forecast vary by
  approximately 2 billon people. This can be
  caused by many contribution factors that you must
  consider in the input stage of your scenario.

3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5

• ? The difference shown in the high and low
  predictions can be influenced by the following
  factors and many more
• ? Contraceptive use and promotion of family
  planning programs
• ? Improving the status of women
• ? Over all increase in the wealth of the
  population, As shown on the next slide this can
  have a great impact on population
• ? Controlling the rate of infections and general
  heath of the population
• ? Size of a population might seem important,
  however there are other factors such as the
  percent of the population that can be considered
  as Dependent Population i.e. those individuals
  under 15 and over 65. That also play a large role
  in future predictions

6
(No Transcript)
7
Population Dynamics

• ? There are many types of population analysis
• ? The simplest are pure extrapolations of of
  current growth patterns
• ? high/low extrapolation will give you a
  general idea of the future size of a population.
  Growth rate changes dramatically from year to
  year and therefore could significantly change a
  predicted out come
• ? One of the major tools available to you in
  IF to manipulate growth rate is
• Cohort-component analysis
• This will allow to combine age-sex, fertility,
  and mortality distributions to get a more
  realistic picture of a possible future population

8
Population Dynamics (cont)

• ? TFR Total Fertility Rate. Is a measure of
  all the births a woman can have over a life time.
• ? This indicator varies greatly over time from
  many reasons related to other aspects of a
  country.
• ? Some of the influencing factors are
• - Income per- capita
• - Cost Vs Return on the value of having children
  
• - nutrition and general heath of a population
• - family planning programs
• - Percent of women mobilized in the work force

9
Scenario Analysis

• ? This will allow you to select a set of
  indicators upon which you wish to focus
• ? Multipliers allow you to effectively increase
  or decrease variables that are otherwise
  calculated automatically
• ? You should have in mind a basis or rational
  for changes that you make in multipliers or other
  parameters
• ? This will be a process of trial and error

10
Draw your Own Conclusions

• 1. A booming economy will ______ the fertility
  rate of a country.
• a. increase b. decrease
• c. All of the above d. none of the above
• 2. A highly educated female population will
  ______ the fertility rate of a country.
• a. increase b. decrease
• c. All of the above d. none of the above
• 3. T F Sheer size of a population is the only
  factor that influences productivity.
• 4. T F The growth rate of a population is an
  exponential constant.
• 5. T F A change in agricultural yield will have
  an effect on population
• 6. T F International futures can predict the
  future

11
Draw your Own Conclusions

• 7. T F A government could use a population
  analysis to test the effectiveness of
  implementing a family planning program
• 8. The IF program uses parameters and ____ to
  manipulate its data
• a. multipliers b. dividers
• c. calculus d. indicators
• 9. T F Population has no influence on a counties
  power
• 10.Dannos presentation was the ______.
• a. BEST b. BEST EVER
• c. Most informative thing Ive ever listened to
• d. Greatest 10 mins of my life