Introduction to Foresight

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• Introduction to Foresight
• Karel Klusacek
• Technology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
• klusacek_at_tc.cz

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Structure of this session

• What is foresight?
• What should be done BEFORE the exercise
• Objectives
• Sponsors
• Methods
• Resources (including budget and timing)
• What should be done DURING the exercise
• Selection of experts
• Awareness and consensus building
• Getting results
• What should be done AFTER the exercise
• Implementation
• Evaluation
• Examples of foresight studies

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What is foresight?

• B. Martin (1995)- Research foresight is the
  process involved in systematically attempting to
  look into the longer-term future of science,
  technology, the economy and society with the aim
  of identifying the areas of strategic research
  and the emerging generic technologies likely to
  yield the greatest economic and social benefits
• L. Georghiou (1996)- Technology foresight is a
  systematic means of assessing those scientific
  and technological developments which could have a
  strong impact on industrial competitiveness,
  wealth creation and quality of life

The future is certainly uncertain, foresight
has to prepare us for a variety of "futures"
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Forecast-Planning-ForesightIs there any
diferrence?

• Foresight can use forecasts, as well as
  contribute to planning, but it should not be
  confused with either activity.

• Forecasting tends to assume that there is one
  probable future, whereas Foresight assumes that
  there are numerous possible futures, and that the
  future is in fact there to be created through the
  actions we choose to take today
• Planning uses shorter time horizons usually not
  over 1-5 years, foresight time horizons should be
  beyond it (10 20 years), but not too much far,
  otherwise it can turn to utopia
• M.Keenan, PREST, 2004

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Organizational principlesWhat should be done
BEFORE the exercise

• Objectives
• Sponsors (Clients)
• Methods
• Resources (including budget and timing)

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Objectives (1)

• Two basic questions
• What are the problems / challenges?
• Is foresight capable to help?
• The first question should be answered in terms of
  reference
• The second question has a positive answer if
• creating of strategic visions is needed
• alternative futures should be considered
• longer time horizon should be considered (10 and
  more years)

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Objectives (2)

• Typical objectives (examples)
• national level - policy formulation, longer-term
  visions, national innovation system
  building/improvement, research priorities
• regional level policy translation, regional
  development strategy, possible development of key
  regional industries/clusters, social inclusion
• industry/company level likely changes of main
  products and production chains, main technology
  trends, dynamics of market

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Sponsor (1)

• Sponsor / client is a FUNDAMENTAL issue
• Not necessarilly paying 100 of the bill
• There must be a market pull (demand)
• It could be government, industry, a company,
  association
• top-down NOT bottom-up approach
• Needed a clear commitment of a right client a
  user of results

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Sponsor (2)

• Right client
• Clear understanding how could foresight
  contribute to his strategic objectives
• TOR well defined
• Realistic expectations
• Providing sufficient time to complete the
  exercise
• Institutionally (politically) strong enough to
  ensure implementation of results there is no
  greater disappointment than if results remain
  just a report in a bookshelf
• Either financially strong enough to cover a
  majority of the budget or able to collect funds
  from other sources
• Stable enough to survive (maintain high level of
  interest) at least for the whole exercise and a
  substantial part of implementation

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Sponsor (3)

• Government
• plays a central role in national foresight
  projects, usually through the appropriate
  ministry
• foresight exercise needs substantial resources
  finance could be generated rather quickly but
  human resources for management of the exercise
  are usually not available - outsourcing
  management of the project needs a strong central
  team although the exercise is widely open for
  consultations
• example of objectives outcomes for formulation
  of policies, research programmes, supportive
  schemes

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Sponsor (4)

• Regional authority
• regional foresight with regional authorities as
  sponsors are playing increasingly important role
  in development knowledge-based economies
• example of objectives input for regional
  innovation strategy, strategic development plans,
  conversion of entrepreneurial sector, collapse of
  key regional industry

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Sponsor (5)

• Industry, company, association
• narrowly focused than national studies
• example of objectives development of key market
  sectors, technology roadmaps

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Why formal foresight methods?

• Better understanding by non-participants
• Increased transparency
• Higher credibility
• Reproducible
• Easier communication
• Possible comparison with other exercises

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METHODS (1)
Exploratory approach what would we expect to
happen if this event happens or if that trend
develops?
Normative approach what to do now to make the
best future happen?
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METHODS (2)

• Quantitative approach reliance on numerical
  representation of developments
• advantages ability to examine rates and scales
  of change
• disadvantages important social and political
  variables often not included

• Qualitative approach often key trends are hard
  to describe using simplified indicators or such
  data are not available
• encouragement of creative thinking e.g.
  brainstorming
• new IT tools e.g. for mind mapping
• In practice Foresight exercise can never be
  dominated by quantitative methods and their
  results

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Selection of methods

• No unique decision for typical situations
  regarding the particular best method
• Usually a mix of approaches depending on the
  specific circumstances confronted
• A danger of copying successful exercises
  without adequate appraisal of necessary
  modifications
• Several techniques often used (in combination)
  Delphi, critical technologies, scenarios,
  technology roadmapping ...

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Resources

• Political support
• the most important component (get them involved
  since the beginning)
• Financial resources
• total cost may significantly vary (nature, scale
  of the exercise)
• public or private sector often combinedpublic
  national or regional authorities (usually the
  largest contribution), ESF, ERDF, FPsprivate
  large enterprises, banks, entrepreneurial
  associations
• Time
• often underestimated, authorities are pushing for
  quick results
• Human resources
• people running the exercise

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Budget and time

• Budget
• length of the exercise and its dimension - the
  most important parameters
• the most significant cost categories work of a
  project management team, organization of meetings
  and events, experts fee (sometimes necessary),
  interviews and surveys, travel and subsistence,
  publicity
• no strict figures, budget may vary usually
  between 100 1000 k
• Time
• usually the critical parameter
• national exercise usually lasts 1-2 years
• regional / sectoral / company exercises are
  usually much shorter

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Organizational principlesWhat should be done
DURING the exercise

• Selection of experts
• Awareness and consensus building
• Getting results

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Selection of experts (1)

• Key initial step of any foresight exercise
• Narrow versus broad consultation schemes
• Narrow - expert committees, fast, low-cost but
  biased opinions very likely
• Broad panels, needs more time, more expensive,
  sometimes too democratic
• Several months (2-6) needed for broader schemes
  to select right people

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Selection of experts (2)

• Broad consultation scheme often hundreds of
  experts involved
• 1st step
• leading national research organisations,
  universities, industrial companies invited to
  nominate experts
• existing databases grant holders, members of
  professional associations
• 2nd step
• nominees complete a questionnaire showing their
  expertise ( info about the exercise)
• Co-nomination (snowball sampling)
• The procedure closes after 2-3 cycles

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Building momentum

• Awareness and networking
• important component of the consensus building
  without consensus there is no sensible exercise
• stakeholders mapping, seminars, personal
  contacts, traditional PR channels, media

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Getting results

• No single universal recipe how to conduct
  foresight
• Always matter of concrete situation what sequence
  of steps will be used for a foresight exercise
• Some basic steps are usually taken

Organization and structuring the exercise
Awareness and networking
Selection of Experts
Experts input Analysis and synthesis
Reporting, implementation and dissemination
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Organizational principlesWhat should be done
AFTER the exercise

• Continuous communication
• Implementation
• Evaluation

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Continuous communication

• Ownership of the exercise and its results
• Communicate since the beginning - NOT just the
  final surprise
• Communication with different groups academia,
  industry, politicians
• Purposely tailored communication packages
• Dedicated website (openness), publishing relevant
  documents and interim results
• Meetings, articles, press releases

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Implementation

• Implementation strategy is a part of project
  results
• Continuous consultations and trust building with
  policy-makers and opinion-leaders (their support
  is essential)
• Visibility of foresight - clear relationship
  between results of the exercise and following
  policy measures

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Evaluation

• Using (at least partly) external (foreign)
  evaluators
• Better design of next exercise (method,
  stakeholders, objectives)
• Crucial for establishing continuous foresight
  program

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Examples of foresight exercises

• Supranational level
• National level
• Subnational level

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Supranational foresight

• Some issues have to be examined on higher than
  national level international foresights
  projects.
• Recent examples include
• UNIDO Fisheries Foresight (South American Pacific
  coast) http//www.unido.org/doc/13004
• FISTERA IST in the enlarged European Union
  http//fistera.jrc.es/
• E-Foresee knowledge-based economy in small EU
  countries (Malta, Estonia, Cyprus)
  http//www.eforesee.info

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National foresightUK Technology Foresight
Programme

• Three cycles (1993 -
• Managed by the Office of Science and Technology
• Aim Improvements in wealth creation and quality
  of life
• Time horizon 15-20 years
• Method Delphi and workshops
• 10,000 people involved
• 360 recommendation for actions
• Results significantly implemented
• More http//www.foresight.gov.uk

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National foresightGerman Futur

• The process (2001-2004) focused on an intensive
  exchange of ideas between stakeholders from
  different societal groups
• The idea was that many interesting solutions only
  emerge when people with different backgrounds
  exchange information
• Aim Formulate leading visions for Federal
  Ministry of Education and Resarch
• Time horizon 20 years
• Method Workshops, open discussion fora,
  scenarios, panels
• Four leading visions formulated
• Understanding Thought process (how the human
  brain works links to IT, medicine, ....)
• Creating Open Access to Tomorrows World of
  Learning
• Healthy and Vital throughout Life by Prevention
• Living in a Networked World Individual and
  Secure
• More http//www.bmbf.de

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National foresightCzech Foresight

• Sponsor Czech Government through Ministry of
  Education
• Objective Identify national research priorities
  for new National Research Program
• Time horizon 10 years
• Method Key technologies involving panels,
  interviews, on-line voting (importance-feasibility
  matrix)
• More than 600 experts involved
• 5 thematic research programmes formulated based
  on 51 key research priority themes
• Results successfuly implemented National
  Research Program launched in 2003
• More http//www.foresight.cz

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Subnational foresight

• Specific problems of regions, individual
  subnational bodies of large countries (e.g.
  states of US, Australia), industrial branches,
  corporatios, associations, ....
• Example Initiatives of European Commission (DG
  Research)
• FOREN Practical Guide to Regional Foresight
  (2001) translated into several EU languagues
  http//cordis.europa.eu.int/foresight/cgrf.htm
• Blueprints for Foresight Actions in the Regions
  (2003 2004) developing practical blueprints
  on how to set up a foresight activities to suit
  specific regional needs
• http//cordis.europa.eu.int/foresight/regional_bl
  ueprints2004.htm

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Thank you for your attention