Weather and Climate: 2004 and Beyond

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Weather and Climate2004 and Beyond

• Eugene S. Takle
• Agronomy Department
• Geological and Atmospheric Science Department
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

United Services Des Moines, IA
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Outline

• Current conditions and seasonal forecasts
• Evidence for global climate change
• Simulations of global climate and future climate
  change
• Climate change in the Midwest
• Summary

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
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Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
  decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased
  in extent by 10-15
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
  mountainous regions
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N.
  Hemisphere
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
• Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
• Snow cover decreased by 10
• Earlier flowering dates
• Coral reef bleaching

Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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40 Probability
5 Probability
Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
  human activities continue to alter the
  atmosphere in ways that are
  expected to affect the climate

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for
  many centuries
• Further action is required to address remaining
  gaps in information and understanding

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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Figure 4. Observed summer (June-July-August)
daily mean temperature changes (K) between
1976-2000 (Adapted from (10)).
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Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin
119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL
Approximately one observing station per
sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per
sub-basin
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Hydrologic Budget Components Simulated by SWAT
under Different Climates
Hydrologic budget components Calibration (1989-1997) Validation (1980-1988) NNR (1980-1988) CTL (around 1990s) SNR (around 2040s) Change (SNR-CTL)
Precipitation 856 846 831 898 1082 21
Snowfall 169 103 237 249 294 18
Snowmelt 168 99 230 245 291 19
Surface runoff 151 128 151 178 268 51
GW recharge 154 160 134 179 255 43
Total water yield 273 257 253 321 481 50
Potential ET 947 977 799 787 778 -1
Actual ET 547 541 528 539 566 5
All units are mm Yield is sum of surface runoff,
lateral flow, and groundwater flow
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For More Information

• See my online Global Change course
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu