Severe Weather Season Is Here

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Severe Weather Season Is Here!

• What are the risks for
• Kendall County?
• Can another Plainfield
• tornado occur?

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Tornadoes in US since 1950
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Tornadoes in US since 1985
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Tornadoes in US since 1995
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Tornadoes in Illinois since 1950
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Tornadoes in Illinois since 1985
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Tornadoes in Illinois since 1995
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Tornadoes in Chicagoland Since 1950
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Tornadoes in Chicagoland Since 1985
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Tornadoes in Chicagoland Since 1995
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Tornadoes in Kendall County

• 9/29/1881
• 500pm
• F2 113 - 157 mph
• 0 Fatalities
• 0 Deaths
• From S of Yorkville to near Oswego.

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Tornadoes in Kendall County

• 8/15/1958
• 200 AM
• F2 113 - 157 mph
• 0 Fatalities
• 0 Injuries
• Lee, DeKalb, Kendall, Will
• A family of tornadoes moved across a 70 mile path
  from S of Dixon to Compton to Sandwich to Joliet.

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Tornadoes in Kendall County

• 3/12/1976
• 1250 pm
• F3 158 - 206 mph
• 0 Fatalities
• 3 Injuries
• Kendall, DuPage
• 23 mile path from S of Oswego to Villa Park.

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Tornadoes in Kendall County

• 8/28/1990
• 310 pm
• F5 Greater Than 260 mph
• 29 Fatalities
• 350 Injured
• Kendall, Will
• 16 mile path from Oswego to Plainfield to Joliet.
  254 million in damage (2006 dollars). Only F5
  ever to hit Chicago area.

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The Sad Numbers

• F5 Tornado ( Old Fujita Scale )
• Strongest August Tornado in US!
• 150 million damage in 1990
• 1/4 mile wide damage path
• 16.4 miles long

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The Sad Numbers

• F5 Tornado ( Old Fujita Scale )
• Strongest August Tornado in US!
• 150 million damage in 1990
• 1/4 mile wide damage path
• 16.4 miles long
• WHAT WOULD THAT BE LIKE NOW?

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Previous Plainfield Tornadoes

• March 29 1920 F4 Cook Will Counties 20
  Fatalities 300 Injured
• 53 mile path 2 miles north of Channahon to
  Romeoville to Bellwood-Maywood area to Wilmette
  and out over Lake Michigan
• Damage worse over Maywood through Melrose Park
  near Kiddieland.

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Other Tornadoes

• June 20 1974 F2? Plainfield School
  District Administrative building partially
  destroyed. Damage estimated 500,000.
• April 27 1984 F3 Plainfield and Troy
  Townships 1 fatality 5 injured
• 14 homes destroyed 30 damaged

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F-Scale Rating of Significant Tornadoes Across
the Chicago Area (From NOAA)
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Significant Tornadoes by Month
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Number of Multiple Significant Tornado Days by
Month
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Ratio of Deaths Injuries Caused By F4 F5
Tornadoes
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Illinois Spring Temp Since 1950 0.26o /Decade
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Illinois Spring Temp Since 1980 0.48o /Decade
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Global Warming Climate ChangeWhat effect has
it hadon Severe Weather in Illinois?
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The question Has there been any affect on
severe weather?

• Data most reliable since 1950.

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The question Has there been any affect on
severe weather?

• Data most reliable since 1950.
• Data even MORE reliable since late 1980s and the
  implementation of WSR 88-D.

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The question Has there been any affect on
severe weather?

• Data most reliable since 1950.
• Data even MORE reliable since late 1980s and the
  implementation of WSR 88-D.
• Data EVEN MORE reliable since early 1990s with
  increased awareness due to better spotter network
  and NWS education

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Tornadoes in the US have been more numerous since
1950.although noticeable dip in the mid to late
1980s
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Tornadoes in Illinois Since 1950Better
Observations?
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Tornadoes in Illinois Since 1950F1 to F5
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Tornadoes in Illinois Since 1950Only F0 Much
better Reporting!
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Tornadoes in Illinois

• Since 1953 the statewide average is
• 36

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Tornadoes in Illinois

• Since 1953 the statewide average is
• 36

• Since 1980 the statewide average is
• 44

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Top Ten Tornado Years in Illinois

• 2006 124
• 2003 120
• 1974 107
• 1998 99
• 2004 80

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Top Ten Tornado Years in Illinois

• 2006 124
• 2003 120
• 1974 107
• 1998 99
• 2004 80

• 1995 76
• 1999 64
• 1973 63
• 1996 62
• 2000 55

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Top Ten Tornado Years in Illinois

• 2006 124
• 2003 120
• 1974 107
• 1998 99
• 2004 80

• 1995 76
• 1999 64
• 1973 63
• 1996 62
• 2000 55

8 of the top 10 in the last 12 years!
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Plainfield Aug 28 1990(Herald News Photo
Bob McDonald)
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• St. Marys Church RT 59 3 fatalities
• Plainfield HS 3 fatalities in area
• Curving road is Lockport Street
• Damage Rated F3 158 - 206mph

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Front of Plainfield HS( Photo by John Patsch)
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St Marys Church
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Lily Cache and Peerless subdivisions South of
Renwick Road ( Photo by Steve Sumner)
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Cresthill Lake ApartmentsWoman found her
children a short time later safe.
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Vehicles overturned
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Cresthill Apts. F3 Damage 158-206
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Crest Hill Lakes Apartments
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8 fatalities in apartment complex
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Looks Nice!(Photo by Steve Buyansky)
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Damage Path
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Damage Path
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Tornado Preceeded by Microbursts
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Radar Imagery
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Limitations of Analysis

• Radar in 1990 had 1957 technology which was
  updated in 1974 but had no doppler technology.
• The Marseilles radar was scheduled to be upgraded
  ( or added on) to partial doppler capability but
  was delayed to the expected deployment of the WSR
  88-D radars which are installed nationwide today.

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Doppler Radar at United Airlines

• Collins 5cm retrofitted Doppler on roof of
  Executive Offices in Elk Grove Village
• Corner of Algonquin Golf Roads
• Mets at time were concerned with developing
  60,000 - 65,000 ft t-storm blocking fix points to
  ORD and MDW and shutting down operations.
• Entire radar loop of storm was taped

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Doppler Radar at United Airlines

• However, RHI or range height indicator was used
  to determine how fast storm was building
  vertically so as to assist controllers and
  dispatchers in re-routing aircraft.
• Radar had a range of 40 miles and the southeast
  of the supercell moved beyond that range once it
  entered Plainfield.

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Doppler Radar at United Airlines

• Dr Ted Fujita visited UAL WX to view radar but
  results were inconclusive.
• One thing that was extremely noticeable (with
  RHI) was very wide and low reflectivity shaft on
  front end of storm indicating the wall cloud 50
  to 150 feet above the surface.
• This is extremely low and allowed NO VIEW OF
  FUNNEL and consequently no spotter reports of
  tornadoes

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Tornado Preceeded by Microbursts
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1927 UTC 327 PM F3 158-205 mph
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1948 UTC 348 PM F4/F5 250 - 275 mph
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2002 UTC 402 PM F4/F5 250- 275 mph
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2005 UTC 405 PMF3/F4 175 - 225 mph
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2034 UTC 434 PM F4 225-250 mph
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UTC 449PM Weakens to F1 70-100
mph
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Can It Happen Again?
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Can It Happen Again?Yes it can. F5 Moore, OK
1999
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Plainfield Aug 28 1990(Herald News Photo
Bob McDonald)
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Wind Speeds 300 mph
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F5 Oak Grove, Alabama 1998
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F5 Edgewater, Alabama
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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change in Kendall County
• 1900 11,467
• 1930 10,555
• 1960 17,540
• 1970 26,374

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change in Kendall County
• 1900 11,467 1980 37,202
• 1930 10,555 1990 39,413
• 1960 17,540 2000 54,544
• 1970 26,374 2005 79,514

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change in Kendall County
• 46 Increase
• Since 2000

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change from 1990 - 2005
• Aurora 43, 409
• Naperville 43, 407

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change from 1990 - 2005
• Aurora 43, 409
• Naperville 43, 407
• Joliet 29, 305

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change from 1990 - 2005
• Aurora 43, 409
• Naperville 43, 407
• Joliet 29, 305
• Oswego 20, 000

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Are we more vulnerable?

• Population change from 1990 - 2005
• Aurora 43, 409
• Naperville 43, 407
• Joliet 29, 305
• Oswego 20, 000
• Yorkville 7, 000

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Could we have another Aug 28 1990?

• In terms of weather YES !

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Could we have another Aug 28 1990?

• In terms of weather YES !
• In terms of weather analysis and prediction
• NO !

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Changes Since 1990

• More advanced Doppler Radar Technology
• Finer resolution satellite data
• More detailed surface analysis
• Finer resolution numerical models run every 6
  hours with some mesoscale models run every hour
  Rapid Update Cycle
• Better Spotter Training Programs
• Improvements in Broadcasts of Warnings/Watches
  from local TV stations

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Happy BirthdayYorkville
50 Years!
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