Mark Fowler

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Mark Fowler catalyst4change_at_bigfoot.com
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Internet Application Solutions
Brand Interface solutions
Corporate Hosting
Mobility Solutions
Microsoft Solution Package Implementation
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Technology paradigm shifts and double exponential
growth
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Agenda
Democratising Extreme Evil
Paradigm Shifts
Technology
Double Exponential Growth

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(No Transcript)
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The subjective experience of time Why does time
seem to fly when we get older?
Subjectively, our perception of time is affected
by the spacing of milestones
Gaps between significant milestones during a life
Months
Days
Years
Adolescent
Child
Adult
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When we think about the future in the next 50-100
years we tend to think of progress at the current
rate
But weve been around long enough to now paradigm
shifts are not occurring at a current rate.
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Contention
We dramatically underestimate the power of
future technology progress
But we are doubling our rate of progress
every ten years So in this century we will
experience 20,000 years of progress at todays
rate.
We tend think of a future period at todays rate
of progress our memories are dominated by our
recent experience.
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Countdown to singularity
Singularity is technological change so rapid and
so profound that is represents a rupture in the
fabric of human history
Paradigm Shift Time (Years)
1010
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
Years ago
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1997
1982
1.2 million
Singularity is near
Registered genetic pairs (75 in last 2 yrs)
Damien Broderick
Internet (3 yrs)
PC (6 yrs)
VCR (8 yrs)
The Spike
Cellular phone (11 yrs)
Fax (20 yrs)
Cable TV (25 yrs)
Telephone (40 yrs)
Years to reach 10 million customers (US)
Time
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Singularity is near
The ever accelerating progress of
technology.gives the appearance of approaching
some essential singularity in the history of the
race beyond which human affairs, as we know them,
could not continue.
John von Neumann (1903 - 1957)
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Summary
We dramatically underestimate the power of
future technology progress
We will see a century of progress - at todays
rate - in only twenty five years
Paradigm Shifts
Technology
Double Exponential Growth

Singularity is near
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Agenda
Democratising Extreme Evil
Paradigm Shifts
Technology
Double Exponential Growth

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The 21st century, if we are not careful, will be
a century of pestilences, much more like the 14th
or 16th. I think we have to change our ways to
avoid such disasters and avoid democratizing
extreme evil.
Co-Founder, Chief Scientist, Sun Microsystems.
The 20th century was clearly a century of war. It
was a very bloody century. We fortunately avoided
nuclear disaster. We created the ability for
nation states to destroy civilization.
Wired Issue 8.04 April 2000
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In the information age, knowledge itself becomes
a weapon
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)
Knowledge-enabled Massive Destruction (KMDs)
So what makes these KMDs more dangerous?
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So what makes these KMDs more dangerous?
WMDs
Blow up your bomb once
KMDs
Self-replication within the environment
Damage far exceeds the single act
Built in the lab without natural balances
Extreme harm to physical and biological world
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The risk of individuals creating sustained or
widespread harm with KMD
Dr William Calvin Neurobiologist University of
Washington
Is technology a threat to humanity's future
seattletimes.com - 19 March 2002
Class of people with "delusional disorder" who
can remain employed and pretty functional for
decades, undiagnosed.despite their
jealous-grandiose-paranoid-somatic delusions.
Ted Kaczynski (aka The Unabomber)
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Agenda
Democratising Extreme Evil
Paradigm Shifts
Technology
Double Exponential Growth

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Tipping Points
It's that ideas and behavior and messages and
products sometimes behave just like outbreaks of
infectious disease. They are social epidemics.
The concept that small changes will have little
or no effect on a system until a critical mass is
reached. Then a further small change "tips" the
system and a large effect is observed.
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The 21st century an exponential age With an
accelerating advance, a goal can be reached with
little warning
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Tipping points in the Network Economy
With we find in the Network Economy depress
tipping points below the levels of industrial
times. It is as if the new bugs are more
contagious - and more potent. Smaller initial
pools can lead to runaway dominance.

• low fixed costs,
• insignificant marginal costs,
• and rapid distribution

Source Kevin Kelly New Rules for the New
Economy - Wired - September 1997
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Moores Law
In 1965 Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel
predicted that the number of transistors per
integrated circuit would double every 18 months
IMPLICATION Price performance of computing will
continue to
improve exponentially
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Dr Hans Moravec
Principal Research Scientist The Robotics
Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburg,
USA
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http//www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/hpm/book98/fig.ch3/p060
.html
Figure from ROBOT, Moravec, Oxford, 1998, Chapter
3 Power and Presence, page 60
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The 3rd dimension
The key issue for the 21st century Sigma curve
vs. exponential growth
The exponential growth of computing goes back 100
years 5 paradigm shifts so far
Paradigm shifts keep exponential growth going
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The third dimension
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The exponential growth of computing, 1900-2100
By about 2020 1,000 circuitry 20 billion
calculations per second human brain
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Could my grandchildren become immortal?
By 2020 all body parts replaceable
By 2050.
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The problem in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence it is acting with yesterdays
logic.
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Questions, discussion?