Spatial disparities of system transformation

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Spatial disparities of system transformation

• Maria Csanádi
• Institute of Economics
• Hungarian Academy of Sciences

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A research project in process

• Theoretical point of departure
• The dynamics of transformation based on the
  Interactive Party-state (IPS) model (in Chinese
  -- Csanádi, 2008)
• Specifics of the dynamics of the Chinese system
  transformation
• Goal of the research
• Test the analytical power of the IPS model
• Characteristic clusterings or segregation
• Potential tensions
• Local economic and social characteristics
• Conventional spatial distribution of income and
  development disparities

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Present stage of the research

• The theoretical approach of system transformation
  based on the model
• Operationalization of possible concepts of system
  transformation
• First statistical results on the spatial
  disparities

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Expectations and further steps

• Confront results with their economic and social
  background
• Expand the compared development period
• Initiate a deep-drilling survey in collaboration
  with Chinese partners

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The outline

• Simplified scatch of the Interactive Party-state
  (IPS) model
• What is system transformation based on the model?
• Where does system transformation occur?
• How does system transformation occur?
• How can system transformation be operationalized?
• So far statistical results

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The D1 and D2 lines of the network
Overlaping decisions through positional,
organizational and activity structure in
non-party structure Direct connections Sensitivity
Atomization Uni-directional but multi-threaded
dependency Multi-threaded interest
promotion Inbuilt inequality
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Principles of connection and operation

• Principles of operation D1, D2
• dependencies,
• interest promotion and
• resource extraction, allocation
• politically monopolized
• Consequences
• from a political sub-field
• through its power instruments permeating and
  monopolizing subfields and defining its
  inequalities
• develops into a network that
• operates as a social system.

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Structural background of variations

• Hierarchical lines (D1)
• Interlinking lines (D2) along the party
  hierarchy,
• Discretion over the extraction and allocation of
  resources along the state hierarchy,
• Short-cuts (I3)

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Consequence of differences

• Different structures
• the combination of the different distribution of
  composing elements results in
• different distributions of power
• Different patterns
• characteristic distribution of elements of the
  network,
• characteristic self-reproduction
• characteristic transformation

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What does transformation mean?

• The party-state network is retreating as a social
  system from monopolized sub-spheres, and
• The sub-spheres of a new social system are
  evolving
• Retreat may be absolute, or relative to the
  evolution
• Retreat and evolution is pattern-conforming
  speed, sequence, conditions

Party-state Network
Market economy
Retreating
Evolving
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Where do transformations occur? PC1.
Retreat of the net
Speed - Gradual
Evolution
Sequence - Political tranformation first
Conditions democratic regime, economic crisis
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Where do transformations occur? PC2.
Retreat of the net
Speed - Gradual
Evolution
Sequence - Economic transformation first
Conditions authoritarian regime, macroeconomic
growth
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Where do transformations occur? PC3.
Speed - Abrupt collapse of the
net attached to all subfields
Conditions uncertain political outcome,
longlasting economic crisis
Sequence - Overlaping transformations
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How do they occur? Retreat
Emptying of the net Weakening of the net
Withdrawal of D1 and D2 Cut-off of D1 and
D2 Streamlining feedbacks and interlinking lines
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How do they occur? Evolution

• Dual-track pricing,
• Allowing the increase of the number of economic
  units and capital outside the net
• Privatized enterprises
• Transferred (stripped off) convertible capacity
• The increase of the overlapping segment

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Constraints on quantification

• Factors of transformation in the model only cut
  off (privatizations, close-downs)
• Chinese statistics (no privatization or
  close-downs instead, indirect indicators
• Inconsistency in time puts constraints on
  longitudinal survey prefecture level 19992002
• The inconsistency of data on different levels of
  aggregation

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Simplifying the model to adaptto constraints

• Warning!!! drawbacks of indirect data and
  simplification
• The retreat of the net may in fact go on despite
  stagnating or even growing GOV (both relative to
  evolution or in absolute terms)

Network Number and GOV of SOEs, TVEs
Evolution Number and GOV of Dom. and FF
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Where do they occur? Retreat and evolution on
national level (number)
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Where do they occur? Retreat and evolution on
national level (GOV)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (number, 1999)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (number, 2002)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (number, 2005)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (GOV, 1999)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (GOV, 2002)
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Signs of retreat and evolution in spaceon
provincial level (GOV, 2005)
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Speed of the retreat and its dispersion in space
(N of prefectures 100 in 1999 and 2002)
Settled differences in time and space
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Differences in the speed of retreat and their
dispersion (N of prefectures 100 in 1999 and
2002)
Declining tendencies
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Speed of the evolution and its dispersion in
space (N of prefectures 100 in 1999 and 2002)
Settled differences in time and space
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Differences in the speed of evolution and their
dispersion (N of prefectures 100 in 1999 and
2002)
Increasing tendencies
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Dynamics of transformation and its spatial
disparities (N of prefectures100 in 1999 and
2002)
spillover or retreat collapse
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Sectoral dynamics relative expansion and
contraction and its spatial disparities
Fiercely expanding land demand
Fiercely contracting land demand
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Emergence of potential tensions to be checked
in field research

• In space due to
• multiplicity at one level
• proximity at one level (indent)
• similar dynamics clustering at one level
• different combination of the type of economic
  units in the net and evolution
• In time due to
• different speed of retreat and evolution
• different conditions of retreat and evolution
• shifting dynamics (types) in time
• different dynamics of industrial-rural
  transformation (faster, slower)
• Among different aggregations
• impact of the multiplicity of dynamics on
  different levels
• further disparities at lower levels of
  aggregations (Hairong Lai, 2008)
• Due to overlap of development and income
  disparities with dynamics

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Questions to be answered by fieldworks

• How do the above tendencies match with the
  unmeasurable factors of transformation
• What kind of dynamics do these different
  potential tensions cause in the transformation
• The coexistance of which types of dynamics is the
  most sensitive and de-stabilizing
• is there a potential for chain reactions in
  transformation due to similar or different type
• Do conflicts emerge due to different type and
  speed of transformation among prefectures
• Do interactions of different type dynamics speed
  up or slow down transformation
• How does these match with tensions ascribed to
  income disparities and its spatial distribution

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Too early for policy implications

• At this stage what we see is that
• the picture is differenciated in time, in space
  and in aggregation and in sectors
• potential tensions due to different dynamics are
  as manyfold,
• these add to income disparities in case they
  overlap
• Further steps
• a longer time-period
• deep drilling
• We are searching for advises and collaboration in
  the above issues

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• Thank you for your attention