Defining tenable groundwater management

1
Defining tenable groundwater management

• Suzanne Pierce, Marcel Dulay, John Sharp, Thomas
  Lowry, Vincent Tidwell

(Photo courtesy of Austin History Center,
PICA17272)
Partially funded by an EPA STAR Fellowship
2
Approach

• Stakeholder Elicitation

Define narratives, research as a reflective
communal act, outcomes provide constraints

• System architecture design

Develop a mechanism for linking disparate
information and transforming it into knowledge,
outcome a decision system for groundwater problems

• Linked Simulation-Optimization

Quantifying alternatives within physical system
boundaries, outcomes management options
3
Conceptualizing the problem
Available Yield
Science-based
Community Preferences
Consensus Yield
Effective Yield
This is the basis for the development of a
Groundwater Decision Support System (GWDSS)
4
Elicitation for Science Models
Benefits
Consequences
Historical
Future
Present
5
Representing Values in the Model
Model Representation
Informed Choices
Community Needs
Reliability
StakeholderValues
Economic Impacts
MODFLOW alone cannot address stakeholder needs!
Unseen Threats
Barton-centricity
6
Framework for Integrated Modeling
(Dulay, unpublished image)
7
Melding Values and Groundwater Models
Systems dynamics helps find solutions that
MODFLOW MEETS SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

• Can be identified during active consensus
  sessions
• AND
• Include relational rules

8
Calibrating between models

• Calibration examples at the end of the 10 year
  transient simulation, for flows into and out of
• zone 8,
• average heads in each zone, and
• spring flows
• The MODFLOW models are represented by the
  cross-hatched bars while the SD model values are
  represented by the checkerboard pattern.

9
Sorting through the combinationsHow does an
algorithm think?
TABUs memory system . . . is analogous to human
memory process.
GWDSS uses MASTS - A TABU search engine
developed by Michael Ciarleglio, unpublished
10
Barton Springs Decision Variables
Objectives 6 implemented to date (For spring
flow, pumping, saturated thickness, wells,
impervious cover)

• Spatial Relocation of Pumping
• 20,000 cfd equally divided among cells
• Search determines best re-allocation
• Drought Settings
• conservation measures expected of permittees
• Sets levels for alarm and critical stages

GWDSS uses MASTS - A TABU search engine
developed by Michael Ciarleglio, unpublished
11
Converting Concerns to Metrics
Value 1990 2000 C1 0.86 5.1
Impervious Cover Increase with Time
Land use change is a significant concern and a
primary influence for the Barton Springs Case
6000
4000
Acres
2000
0
AHC, Photo C00606
1931
2003
1985
1967
1943
12
Stakeholder Profile
Environmentalist Jon Beall
Values Tradeoff Curves
Spring Flow to Impervious Cover
50

• Priority Listing
• Spring Flow
• Impervious Cover
• Storage
• Drought Policy
• Well Reliability
• Total Extraction

Q (Billion ft3/month)
0
1922
2002
Physical System
Preference System
Objective Constraints Scenario Settings
Maximize Spring Flow
Low Impervious Cover, High Drought Reductions
Conservative Urban
Growth, Dry Climate
13
Stakeholder Profile
Groundwater Conservation District Brian Hunt
X
4
5
Aquifer Performance
3
6
9
2
Increased pumping in Zones 10, 1, and 4 favors
increased spring flows at Barton Springs

• Priority Listing
• Total Extraction
• Drought Policy
• Well Reliability
• Storage
• Spring Flow
• Impervious Cover

10
8
1
7
11
N
Objective Constraints Scenario Settings
Maximize Total Pumping
Community Driven, Existing
Legal Permits Dry
Climate, Growth Scenarios, Well Relocation
Photo by Gregg Eckhardt
14
Comparing Alternatives Active Negotiation
With the GWDSS integrated format a series of
multi-disciplinary methods can be implemented
rapidly to bring science into stakeholder
discussions
15
Integrated Modeling to Support Rapid Dispute
Prevention